Tennis Betting Advice - August 2019
US Open: Day Three – six Match Winner picks…
Wednesday 28th August 2019
US Open - Day Three
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Three of your US Open 2019 daily service.
I’m in your inbox 11am every day, sharing all my US Open thoughts, opinion, analysis and advice with you.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.
You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
More good than bad…
If you’re going to pull an all-nighter, it helps a great deal if your player wins.
After Sloane Stephens crashed out in the 1st Round (approximate UK time, 3.30am), Nick Kyrgios v Steve Johnson was the last match standing. That one took me well past 5am. And you couldn’t wish for a better player to keep you on the edge of your seat…
The press are all over Nick again this morning. A comment in the post-match press conference about the ATP being ‘corrupt.’ A minor volley of rude words (by Nick’s colourful standards) with the chair umpire towards the end of the match.
But overall, by and large, this was Nick Kyrgios on ‘Good’ mode. And that’s exactly what we were hoping for when we backed him as One to Watch at this US Open at outsider odds of 40/1 and 50/1.
The tennis is the most important thing. Kyrgios was all business in the opening two sets. Head down after a scintillating winning shot. Positive body language, concentrating on himself more than everything going on around him. Some of his play was outrageously good. The commentators were making as many gasps and roars as the New York crowd. If Nick plays to this level every round, he can have a very good stay here.
Kyrgios beat Johnson in straight sets, 6-3, 7-6, 6-4. He served 24 Aces, won 88% of 1st Serve Points and hit a massive 53 winners – compared to just 16 winners from his opponent’s racket.
Opening up the draw…
After a day of carnage regarding the men’s seeds in Kyrgios’ section of the draw in particular, this is more and more looking like the best Grand Slam opportunity – on paper – that Nick has ever had…
In his quarter alone, Stefanos Tsitsipas (8th seed), Roberto Bautista-Agut (10th), Felix Auger-Aliassime (18th), Kyle Edmund (30th) and Dominic Thiem (4th) all went out yesterday. And 9th seed Karen Khachanov also crashed out of the second half of the men’s draw.
This morning the bookies’ revised odds have 28th seed Kyrgios as 28/1 at best for the trophy, with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook down to 20/1. And at 2/1 across the board, Nick is the new favourite to win Quarter 3.
I’m a Kyrgios fan. I think he gets too much bad press. Some of the members at my local tennis club won’t agree with me. But if he’s got some mental issues, then he should be extended some compassion in that regard. That’s my opinion. I’m rooting for Nick.
As I said on Monday – the question is whether the 24-year-old can hold it all together for seven matches over two weeks. Under the lights last night, Nick made a good start.
Our Ones to Watch in New York…
Sloane Stephens lost yesterday. But this time it wasn’t a bad performance from her. Our 33/1 outsider pick was beaten hands-down by the better player on the night. Achieving her first ever win at a Grand Slam – and doing so on the biggest stadium court in the world – 20-year-old Russian, Anna Kalinskaya showed no nerves at all and played the match of her life.
It’s never nice to lose a pick in the very first round. But at the odds we go for in Ones to Watch, it’s going to happen. We only need one of our big-price players to do something good to make it a happy fortnight overall.
We’ve currently got a handful of Ones to Watch in the Outright markets:
Kenin, Yastremska, Pliskova and De Minaur all play in Round 2 today.
There are over 30 matches on the schedule today. On the betting front, there are six that standout for me.
In the women’s:
Johanna Konta to beat Margarita Gasparyan
World No.16 Konta came through a tough 1st Round match v Daria Kasatkina and can overcome another talented ball player today. World No.61 Gasparyan has lost 6 of her last 7 matches v Top 20 opponents.
Petra Martic to beat Ana Bogdan
Martic also had a three-set battle in Round 1, but finished strongly – winning the final set 6-1. The Croatian has a 3-0 head-to-head record v Bogdan, who is ranked 130 places below her.
Maria Sakkari to beat Shuai Peng
Sakkari is on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list. The 24-year-old Greek is up to a career-high of No.29. Peng is 33 years of age now and down to No.167 in the rankings.
As a single in the men’s 2nd Round today…
Feliciano Lopez to beat Yoshihito Nishioka @ 9/5 (2.80)
Lopez is 37 now, but the veteran is still in great shape (see the viral news story of a woman in the crowd taking a photo of him when he changed his shirt in the 1st Round…).
The Spaniard had a fairy-tale grass season, winning both the Singles and Doubles titles at Queen’s. He hit a blistering 22 Aces in the 1st Round against an opponent 16 years his junior. Only four men served faster than Lopez’s 138mph effort in that match v Taylor Fritz.
Nishioka is having a good summer himself, with hard-court victories over Japanese hero Kei Nishikori, and Alex De Minaur. However, the 23-year-old has never been past the 2nd Round of a Grand Slam and he looks a bit short as the 4/9 (1.44) favourite to beat the hugely experienced and big-serving Lopez.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
BET: TREBLE: Konta, Martic & Sakkari to win @ 5/4
BOOKIES: 5/4 (2.25) Bet365, William Hill, Betway, BetVictor
BET: Feliciano Lopez to beat Yoshihito Nishioka @ 9/5
BOOKIES: 9/5 (2.80) BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet, 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, William Hill, Betway
The Rollover – bet No.3…
Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looking for entertainment at the US Open with our Rollover bet…
The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark. I believe that’s an achievable target. We’re not reaching for the stars. So far this season we’ve had five Rollover attempts and one success – with an 8-bet streak rolling a tenner up to £117 in May.
Bet No.2 won @ 9/10 (1.90) on Tuesday to roll our pot up to £36.10 going on bet No.3 today…
Stan Wawrinka to beat Jeremy Chardy
Wawrinka saves his best for the Slams these days. He’s made the quarter final or better in four of his last five US Opens. Stan has a commanding 5-0 career head-to-head v Chardy
Reilly Opelka to beat Daniel Koepfer
Opelka was impressive in the 1st Round. The 21-year-old American sealed his first ever US Open victory with 26 Aces, the fastest serve of the round (142mph) and 79% of 1st Serve Points Won. He’s played 3 won 3 v Koepfer
This Match Winner double pays out at around 4/5 (1.80) with BetVictor, William Hill Betway, Boylesports, Bet365.
I’ll be back at 11am tomorrow with your next US Open daily email…
Enjoy the tennis…