Tennis Betting Advice - August 2020

An aggressive double at 3/1...

Wednesday 5th August 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Palermo…
  • Three seeds knocked out already…
  • My two picks for today…

We made a small profit yesterday, with one of our two ‘three-set’ selections ticking that box.

Both matches in question were won by the match underdog. Aliaksandra Sasnovich beat 5th seed Elise Mertens, 6-4, 6-1. Oceane Dodin beat Tamara Zidansek 2-6, 6-4, 6-4.

The key formbook observation there is that the two players with more recent match activity prevailed. Mertens and Zidansek were both playing their first competitive tennis at any level since pre-lockdown.

Three seeds knocked out already…

The 1st round at WTA Palermo saw three of the top five seeds fall at the first hurdle. That’s good news for us. In the Outright Winner market, we’ve deliberately avoided the favourites at single-figure odds…

At the start of the week, 2nd seed Marketa Vondrousova was 6/1, 3rd seed Maria Sakkari was 8/1, and 5th seed Mertens was 8/1. All three failed to make it past the 1st round.

In that respect, our Ones to Watch Each Way selections are already out-performing their pre-tournament prices…

  • Anett Kontaveit 12/1 (13.0) is now trading at around 7/1 (8.0)
  • Fiona Ferro 25/1 (26.0) now around 10/1 (11.0)

Of course, getting through to the 2nd round is the least we hope for with our weekly tournament picks. Kontaveit and Ferro both won in straight sets yesterday. Tomorrow, Kontaveit will take on Laura Siegemund in the 2nd round match-up that we anticipated in our Sunday preview.

Ferro plays again today, with the fast-improving 23-year-old taking on our 16/1 friend from WTA Shenzhen back in January, Palermo 8th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova

That Shenzhen win was on hard courts, where the Russian’s big serve and flat hitting can do the most damage. On clay, Ferro is the bookies’ 8/11 (1.73) match favourite today.

Alexandrova beat Kristina Mladenovic in the 1st round. However, that match might have been a different story had Mladenovic not served 20 double faults… take those off, and the Frenchwoman would actually have won more total points in the match than Alexandrova.

Ferro was one of the most convincing winners of the day on Tuesday, needing little over an hour to see off the qualifier Nadia Podoroska, 6-2, 6-1. The Frenchwoman has now won 11 matches in a row going back to July. Let’s see if Fiona can continue her progress today.

  • Alexandrova v Ferro is the first match of the day in Palermo, at 3pm UK time 

My two picks for today…

I’m taking an aggressive stance on two matches today:

Kristyna Pliskova to beat Sara Errani, and Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Jasmine Paolini.

The two Italian outsiders both had three-hour epics in the 1st round. And if the serving form from so far this week continues, then Paolini and the veteran wildcard Errani will both struggle this afternoon…

Sasnovich came through qualifying here and is yet to drop a set at WTA Palermo 2020. The Belarusian gave up just two break points in her impressive 1st round win over Mertens on Tuesday. In comparison, Paolini coughed up an eye-watering 34 break points in her opening match, losing her serve on 10 occasions. The Italian also had the trainer on court, and had strapping on her leg.

Pliskova has one of the best serves on tour. The left-hander won a high 81% of 1st Serve Points in her 2-0 win over Sakkari, and didn’t lose her serve in the entire match. While 33-year-old Errani was involved in the second longest match of the week so far, giving away 21 break points and losing her serve eight times.

With those serving stats as the key guide, I like the Match Winner double on Sasnovich & Pliskova today. And also, for the most aggressive approach, the 3/1 double for both women to win by two sets to nil.

The individual prices are as follows:

  • Sasnovich is 1/2 (1.5) to win. Pliskova is 4/11 (1.36)
  • In the Set Betting markets, Sasnovich to win 2-0 is around 6/5 (2.2), and Pliskova to win 2-0 is a best price 10/11 (1.91)

WTA Palermo:

4pm+ UK time
Live on Amazon Prime Video

Sara Errani v Kristyna Pliskova
Jasmine Paolini v Aliaksandra Sasnovich

  • Double: Match Winner – Sasnovich & Pliskova to win is Evens+ (2.0+) with Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet
  • Double: Set Betting – Sasnovich to win 2-0 & Pliskova to win 2-0 is 16/5 (4.20) Bet365, Skybet, 3/1+ (4.0+) William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Sportingbet

I’ll be back with more Palermo updates for you between now and the weekend.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch