Tennis Betting Advice - August 2020

WTA Lexington - 3/1 and 4/1 shots for today...

Thursday 13th August 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Lexington…
  • Set Betting picks at 3/1 and 9/2…
  • Including Serena Williams v Venus Williams…

We can’t get a player into a final every week. Our 33/1 outsiders Anna Blinkova and Madga Linette were both well-beaten in Kentucky last night.

We can have no complaints there. Opponents Maria Bouzkova and Jennifer Brady were both very impressive in their respective 2nd round matches at WTA Lexington.

We’ve got one Ones to Watch pick still standing in the Outright Winner markets this week, though…

Ons Jabuer is through to the quarter finals, where she will meet the 16-year-old star, Coco Gauff, on Friday.

Jabeur was 20/1 at the start of the week. The Tunisian is now trading at 8/1 & 9/1.

Two matches catch my eye in the States today…

Serena v Venus…

The 31st career meeting between Serena Williams and Venus Williams is the headline match of the day. The overall head-to-head, which spans 22 years on tour (!), is 18-12 to Serena.

The younger of the legendary sisters, Serena is no.1 seed at this week’s event. And a clear 2/5 (1.4) favourite to extend her record over Venus today.

However, even at 40 years of age, Venus is still working on her game. She used the lengthy delay between March and August to remodel her serve. And if Tuesday’s convincing 6-3, 6-2 win over Victoria Azarenka is anything to go by, then all that effort on the practise court was time very well spent…

In that 1st round match, Venus gave away just one break point in total (and saved it). She hit three aces and just one double fault. Getting 70% of first serves in, winning 70% of first serve points, and 65% of second serve points.

Pointing out weaknesses in Serena’s first match back, the favourite had to come from a set down to beat Bernarda Pera, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1. Serena gave away 13 break points, although she managed to save 11 of them. And a points-won-on-second-serve rate of just 40% suggests older sister Venus might get some wobbly second serves to attack this afternoon…

Of course, there’s an element of family emotion involved here. I think Serena and Venus would rather not play each other; or rather, one of them not have to lose.

There’s also the lack of a big stage. Over half of their 30 career meetings have come at Grand Slam tournaments. This will be their first ever clash at a WTA International-grade event. Atmosphere could be a little lacking.

Venus can be backed at 2/1 for the underdog match win today. After her performance against Azarenka, that wouldn’t be a major surprise. Although it would certainly grab a few headlines.

For a bigger price on the outsider angle, this stat from the head-to-head is one that I find interesting:

  • 20 of the 30 matches between Venus & Serena have been settled in straight sets

Two out of every three meetings between the famous sisters has been won 2-0. In the Set Betting market, Serena is Evens (2.0) to deliver that score-line today. I like odds of 9/2 (5.5) for Venus to put her foot down if she gets ahead.

Rogers v Fernandez…

The other match we’re interested in today is USA v Canada, Shelby Rogers v Leylah Annie Fernandez

The official head-to-head says this is their first meeting. But if you were following our ‘lockdown picks’ then you might remember that Rogers and Fernandez met twice on hard courts as part of the GST Tours Matchplay 120 Series in June.

Both of those encounters went the distance to three sets:

  • 1st June, Rogers won 7-6, 4-6, 7-6
  • 9th June, Fernandez got revenge, finishing strongly in a 3-6, 6-4, 6-0 win

Rogers started this week with a 2-1 victory in the 1st round. Fernandez was a comfortable 2-0 winner over a nervous/ lacklustre Sloane Stephens. Expect Rogers to give the 17-year-old Canadian much more of a match than Sloane did.

There’s not much between these two women in the rankings. The 27-year-old Rogers is no.116 in the world. The American has been top 50 before, but has had some bad injuries to contend with. Fernandez is no.120. The teenager is very much on the up.

The bookies have the youngster as a 4/7 (1.57) match favourite today, with Shelby at 6/4 (2.5).

In the Total Sets market, you can get 6/4 for it to go to three sets once again (best price with BetVictor).

I certainly think the scoreboard will twist & turn in this one…

In the 1st round, Rogers’ standout stat was 10 aces. If there’s one weakness for her 17-year-old opponent, it’s the serve. Fernandez hit six double faults in her opening match this week. When the ball’s in play though, the youngster has got the cutting edge to her game…

My choice is Fernandez to win 2-1 at 3/1 or better.

WTA Lexington today:

Matches scheduled for 5.30pm+ UK time

Live on Amazon Prime Video, and selected bookie websites

  • Set Betting – Venus Williams to win 2-0 v Serena Williams is 23/5 (5.6) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 9/2 (5.5) William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 4/1 (5.0) Skybet, Betfred, Betway, Boylesports
  • Set Betting – Leylah Fernandez to win 2-1 v Shelby Rogers is 10/3 (4.33) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 16/5 (4.2) Boylesports, 3/1 (4.0) William Hill, Bet365, Skybet, Betfred, Betway

I’ll be back between now and the end of the week with the latest from WTA Lexington and WTA Prague. Then we’ll be turning our attention to New York for the rest of August.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch