Tennis Betting Advice - August 2020
Sunday Night Club – 200/1 teenager in Prague...
Sunday 9th August 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Enjoy the sunshine...
We enjoyed a rare and sunny situation today. As I sat down to write to you with our Sunday Night Club selections for the upcoming week, both of our tournament picks from last week played each other in the WTA Palermo final...
Our 25/1 pick Fiona Ferro took the title in Sicily, beating 12/1 selection Anett Kontaveit in straight sets.
That’s a big win-win result for us. Even more so, having backed both women Each Way, as is invariably the plan with our outsider picks.
A double payout landed, then, with Ferro as the highest priced of our two Palermo players, making it the best possible outcome in the final.
I know some of you have been watching. Ones to Watch regular correspondent David C emailed me on Saturday evening after the semi finals. And Gabriel noted the excitement unfolding: “I’m barely watching the scoreboard at my end but I imagine you’re pouring a drink…”
Steve L has just emailed in to say he was on Ferro at 20/1 and Kontaveit at 12/1. Very good to hear...
You can email me direct at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Getting both finalists doesn’t happen very often. The last time we managed that dream scenario was back in 2018, when Steve Johnson beat Tennys Sandgren in the ATP Houston final.
That being the case, we should not go expecting miracles with this week’s picks. But that won’t stop me going after the outsider prices and underdog contenders, just like every week of the season...
Ones to Watch this week...
After that first event back in Italy, the women’s tour continues with two tournaments this week. WTA Prague on clay in the Czech Republic. And a new event in America, WTA Lexington on hard courts in Kentucky.
The 1st round in the USA starts from 3pm UK time on Monday. We’ll take our first full look at the Lexington draw tomorrow morning.
In Prague, play starts from 10am. So we’d better take our first pick of the Outright Winner prices now.
There’s an enticing recent history of outsiders at this tournament:
Let’s go after a couple of big ones this week…
The top half of the WTA Prague draw has a couple of big names, and plenty of contenders. But not many exciting prices.
World no.2 Simona Halep is the star attraction, and just 7/4 (2.75) at best to collect the silverware. This will be the Romanian’s first competitive match since February, and her first on clay since the French Open last June. Those reasons alone are enough to avoid the short odds for the favourite here.
Elsewhere in the top half, the tricky Anastasija Sevastova (16/1) and last week’s Palermo quarter finalist Dayana Yastremska (10/1) also have credentials.
Our new friend Fiona Ferro is 14/1 this time. We got bigger on the 23-year-old last week in Italy. And it wouldn’t be a surprise if the French player pulled out to get some rest.
The outsider potential looks most likely to come from the opposite side of the draw…
Petra Martic (7/1) is the top name, but she looked to be battling injury niggles in her straight sets semi final defeat at the hands of Kontaveit at Palermo on Saturday. It would also be no surprise if Martic pulled out here.
Elise Mertens (14/1 at best) fell in the 1st round in Sicily, in her first match since before lockdown. The Belgian might still be rusty.
Another Palermo player, Camila Giorgi, played three long three-set matches in reaching the semis last week. The Italian is 20/1 in general this time. She was 33/1 last week. Again, fatigue could play a part. Although you can’t rule out momentum, either.
66/1 and 200/1 picks in Prague…
A pair of 33/1 shots meet in the 1st round. Timara Zidansek and Katerina Siniakova both have clay court skills, but are also both prone to being wildly inconsistent. The winner of that tie will face Eugenie Bouchard or our Ones to Watch in 2020 player, Verokina Kudermetova…
Those two are both 66/1. The Russian is my pick. Younger, and with more upside in her game than Bouchard, who is still trying to claw back some of the form that saw her reach the Wimbledon final back in 2014.
If Kudermetova can get past the Canadian – and the bookies make her the 8/15 (1.53) match favourite to do so – then a 2nd round match against Zidansek or Siniakova would present a decent chance to get to the quarter finals. Either way, one of those 33/1 or 66/1 chances is going to be there, with a chunky slice of value in there somewhere.
Admittedly, clay isn’t the 23-year-old’s best surface. But with this being such early days back on tour, and a history of underdog surprises at this event, odds of 66/1 or 50/1 for Kudermetova have more than enough going for them for me.
Over in the States, the Williams sisters are due back in action. Serena turns 39 years of age next month. Venus hit 40 during the tour hiatus. At 16 years old, One to Watch Cori ‘Coco’ Gauff is also set to line up in that WTA Lexington field. Gauff is 11/1 at best there.
But in Prague, there’s another promising teenager on show, and this one is as big as 200/1…
Last month we mentioned the Fruhvirtova sisters as ones to look out for. Brenda Fruhvirtova is just 13 years old (yes, thirteen). She beat Siniakova last month. Her older sister and Doubles partner, Linda Fruhvirtova is only 15 herself. And is already being talked of as having a very bright future.
A talented teenager is always worth considering for an underdog run at a smaller tour event like this. (At ‘International’ grade, Prague is in the lowest bracket of the main WTA Tour.) At odds of 200/1, and 100/1+ in general, tournament wildcard entry Fruhvirtova is priced as the rank outsider this week.
It could be that she’s taught a lesson in the 1st round on Monday by fellow Czech, 28-year-old Kristyna Pliskova (herself part of a famous tennis-sisters family, with twin Karolina). However, when Kristyna took on Linda behind closed doors at an exhibition event on clay in the Czech Republic in July, the scoreboard was suitably close to suggest the 15-year-old can make a real match of this.
Pliskova got past the teenager 7-5, 6-4 that day. It was no walk in the park. The +5.5 Games Handicap would’ve paid out on the newcomer in that match. Bet365 make that option 10/11 (1.91) for Monday’s meeting.
I certainly wouldn’t put it past Fruhvirtova pulling off a shock or two here. Playing ‘at home,’ in these post-lockdown conditions, the youngster might be able to take advantage of any holes in the draw and/ or opponents lacking match sharpness. Linda is in the same quarter of the draw as Martic, who as we’ve already discussed, may end up not being fit enough to last the week.
With Fruhvirtova 4/1+ to beat the lower-ranked of the Pliskova sisters on Monday, that’s a match price worth having an interest in. As well as the giant odds for a speculative Each Way bet in the Outright Winner market.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner picks – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Match Winner pick:
Note: Find out why I recommend certain bookies for certain markets here.
More on Monday…
WTA Prague will be shown live on Amazon Prime Video every day this week.
Play starts at 10am Monday (bookies suspend their Outright Winner markets during play).
I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the WTA Lexington draw & prices.
If you had a good week with our Palermo picks, let me know…
Did you get 25/1 or 20/1 on Ferro? Message me direct at: email@example.com
Enjoy the tennis…