Tennis Betting Advice - August 2021

Two 100/1 picks for Montreal today...

Monday 9th August 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • 50/1 outsider for the US Open…
  • ATP Toronto & WTA Montreal this week…
  • 100/1 picks for today – play starts 4pm…

I’ve always said Danielle Collins was a streaky player. Well, she’s currently on a 10-match winning run. And there are plenty of reasons to get behind her this summer as we head towards the US Open, on her favoured North American hard courts…

This season, the American is making a step up in her career, finally playing ‘pain free’ after a diagnosis for endometriosis, and subsequent surgery. On the back of that fitness news this spring, we followed Danielle at rank outsider odds of 125/1 on clay at the French Open (3rd round), and then at 150/1 on the grass at Wimbledon (2nd round).

We had previously backed Collins as a dangerous big-price underdog during the 2019 campaign, including at the Australian Open, where she reached the semi finals. And at 150/1 at the ‘Masters’ event in Miami (3rd round).

Back in 2018, we also backed Collins at attractive odds of 33/1 Each Way at WTA San Jose. She reached the semi finals, and was 6-3, 4-1 up with a double break of serve in the second set, before capitulating and allowing Maria Sakkari to reel her in for a painful near miss. I was in France for a wedding during that semi-final match, and I can remember getting online to check the scores when our player was well ahead – only to be denied when catching up on the final result when I woke up the next day.

Take 50/1 for this in-form outsider…

Now 27 years of age, Danielle finally got her hands on the San Jose trophy yesterday, beating Daria Kasatkina in the final. The American went off at just 10/1 last week, on the back of a breakthrough result in her previous tournament…

In July, Collins won in Palermo on clay – in doing so, collecting a maiden WTA title. As the saying goes, you wait ages for a bus, then two come along at once…

Now ranked inside the top 30 in the world (#28), and playing some of the best tennis of her life, Collins will back herself to keep it going. As we’ve noted on multiple occasions before, as with compatriot Sofia Kenin, Collins is a ferocious competitor, who absolutely hates losing.

Whether or not Danielle can keep it going for a third straight tournament remains to be seen. After her weekend success in California, the American is 25/1 in general for this week’s prestigious WTA 1000 Masters event in Montreal, Canada. She’s due to play her 1st round match on Tuesday evening or later. Let’s wait 24 hours and see if she is definitely going to take part (sometimes, players pull out, or experience a slump, in the days immediately after title wins).

One area where I do want us to get involved today is the Outright Winner market for the upcoming women’s US Open. As mentioned above, we’ve backed Collins at big odds in the Grand Slams before. Odds of 50/1 and 40/1 appeal. Right now, there’s every chance she’ll be heading to New York at the end of the month as one of the most in-form outsiders.

I’ve described Collins as a dark horse for a Major before. Let’s take the big odds that are on offer for the US Open right now. And I’ll report back on the WTA Montreal prices & outlook tomorrow.

  • Aryna Sabalenka is the 6/1 favourite for this week’s big National Bank Open tournament in Montreal. We’re on Sabalenka as a 2021 early-bird pick for the US Open, backed at top prices of 28/1, 25/1 & 22/1 in January. The Belarusian is now around 12/1 for the big one in New York

100/1 picks for Montreal today…

Over the next couple of days, we’ll be looking to back two of three players at big prices for this week’s two 1000-grade tournaments in Canada. As discussed, the women are in Montreal. The 2021 men’s instalment of the National Bank Open – formerly known as the Rogers Cup – takes place in Toronto.

Two players that I want to get down in the book on day one in the women’s draw are:

Ajla Tomljanovic – the Australian has the shot-making power to do well at a hard-court event like this. She faces an out-of-form opponent in the 1st round today, with Fiona Ferro preferring the clay, and the head-to-head 3-0 in favour of Tomljanovic. If Ajla gets through that, then the big odds – 125/1, 100/1 & 80/1 – will be well worth having onside against the seeded but somewhat unreliable Petra Kvitova.

Shelby Rogers is another player I like in the realm of the 100/1 shots. The 28-year-old American is by far at her best on hard courts, with 148 of her 272 career match wins coming on this surface. Since returning from a series of injury setbacks, Shelby has threatened a big run at a top tournament for some time. On hard courts, she made the quarter finals at the US Open last year, only beaten by eventual champion Naomi Osaka. And then the 4th round (Last 16) at the Australian Open this season, where there was no shame in going out to world no.1, Ashleigh Barty.

Rogers plays in the 1st round tonight against former Ones to Watch teenager, Anastasia Potapova. The 20-year-old Russian is capable of playing some sensational tennis, but a season-to-date match win record of won 15 lost 15 sums up her problem: inconsistency. Shelby is the player I trust in this encounter.

To kick off our Outright Winner betting in Montreal, these couple of massive outsider prices will be very nice have on our side. Along with Collins as a dark horse for the US Open

Ones to Watch

Outright Winner picks – Each Way

US Open 2021 – Women’s:

  • Danielle Collins @ 50/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, 40/1 Bet365, William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet, MansionBet, NetBet, 10Bet

WTA Montreal – National Bank Open:

  • Ajla Tomljanovic @ 125/1 Skybet, Unibet, 100/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 80/1 Bet365, Betfred, Betway, Netbet, 10Bet, MansionBet
  • Shelby Rogers @ 100/1 Bet365, Skybet, 90/1 MansionBet, Netbet, 10Bet, 80/1 Betfred, BetVictor, 75/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Play starts in Montreal from 4pm, UK time. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets during play.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with more on this week’s men’s & women’s events in Canada.

You can watch the National Bank Open in Montreal & Toronto, live on Amazon Prime Video.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch