Tennis Betting Advice - August 2021

Can Collins keep it going?

Thursday 12th August 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • 12 in a row for Danielle Collins…
  • Sorribes Tormo v Siniakova today…
  • Collins v Jessica Pegula tonight…

We’ve had a good couple of days at the National Bank Open in Canada. On Tuesday, Katerina Siniakova beat Garbine Muguruza at nice outsider prices. And yesterday, our two other Ones to Watch picks in Montreal, Sara Sorribes Tormo and Danielle Collins, both won through to the Last 16, too.

Siniakova and Sorribes Tormo will play each other this evening (5pm UK time) – the winner will progress to the quarter finals. We’re on those two at massive Each Way prices in the Outright Winner market, 100/1 and 80/1, respectively.

Going the distance in Montreal…

In the other side of the Montreal draw, we’re on Collins at 28/1. The American continued her fine form last night, beating former world no.1 and two-time Grand Slam champion Simona Halep. Extending her winning run to a very impressive 12 matches.

In both matches in Montreal this week, Collins has come from a set down to win, 2-1. But at what cost?

Wednesday night’s battle with Halep saw almost three hours of court time, and Danielle took a medical time-out in the third set – going on the pull off the victory, with the top of her left leg strapped up.

The question now is, after two title wins on the trot, and 12 straight match victories, what does Collins have left in the tank this week? She’s been given the longest time possible to recover, scheduled for the last match on today’s Montreal schedule – which will be around 1.30am in the morning, UK time.

The opponent is fellow American, Jessica Pegula. We’ve backed Pegula a few times at big prices over the past 12 months. She’s a threat on hard courts, and has really upped her game since play resumed after the tour shut down due to coronavirus in 2020. The career head-to-head is 2-0 to Pegula, although those meetings both came some time ago now, and on the lower-tier ITF tour (2016 & 2012).

Collins is a fighter – it’s her number one characteristic on court. And I’ve seen Pegula get nervy a few too many times in big matches to see her going all the way right now. Although the breakthrough, of course, could come at any time.

If you want to protect your Outright stake on Collins tonight, then the advice would be to back Pegula to win the match, at around 4/5 (1.8) or 3/4 (1.75). Personally, I reckon Collins can dig deep and find a way through again. But only she’ll know how her body feels after yesterday’s exertions.

A quick look at the revised WTA Montreal tournament market shows that, whatever happens this evening, we’ve got some big, outsider prices in our favour this week:

28/1 Collins – now 11/1
80/1 Sorribes Tormo – now 40/1
100/1 Siniakova – now 28/1

With Siniakova & Sorribes Tormo facing off against each other today, we’re guaranteed at least one player in the quarter finals at big odds. And that’s a good position to be in…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch