US Open - four names already in the book...

Tuesday 23rd August 2022

Nothing is impossible…

US Open Qualifying start today. A few extra eyes might be on these matches this year, seeing as twelve months ago, the unheralded Emma Raducanu came through qualifying in New York – and went on to lift the trophy…

Raducanu became the first ever qualifier to win a Grand Slam. To this day I stand by my thoughts from that wild late summer fortnight of 2021 – Emma should’ve been bigger than 100/1. It was really was a bolt from the blue. Unprecedented stuff in terms of such a newcomer delivering on the biggest stage. And in the most dominant of fashions, too – the British teenager didn’t drop a single set over 10 matches combined across the three qualifying rounds & seven main-draw matches.

While Raducanu’s victory was certainly a surprise, big-odds results in the women’s Grand Slams are nothing new. More on that topic tomorrow. And later this week, we’ll also be looking at the emerging trend for first-time finalists and winners in the men’s game. With the likes of Roger Federer finally releasing their stranglehold on the Major silverware.

As recently as last week we were given a reminder of how wide-open the sport can be right now…

The two big 1000-grade events in Cincinnati – the last such tournaments before the US Open 2022 – produced significant outcomes in both fields:

• WTA Cincinnati winner Caroline Garcia became the first women to win a 1000 event as a qualifier. Garcia’s main-draw run rolled up to odds of 50/1. While runner-up Petra Kvitova started the week at 80/1 in the Outright Winner market

• ATP Cincinnati champion Borna Coric lifted the biggest trophy of his career – with his outsider odds matching his lowly ranking. A 150/1 underdog in the betting, Coric went into the tournament ranked no.152 in the world. Making him the lowest-ranked player ever to win an ATP 1000 title

US Open – four names already in the book…

Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be doing all I can to point us in the direction of a big-odds winner in New York…

• Play starts in the Big Apple on Monday, 29th August. I’ll be in touch with your exclusive, DAILY Ones to Watch US Open 2022 service. Every day for the full Flushing Meadows fortnight. With the Day 1 email sent to you for 12 noon on Monday

Ahead of the draws being made. And while the tennis world waits to see whether or not Novak Djokovic will be allowed into the States. Throughout the year, we’ve been steadily building a big-price, ante-post book for the US Open…

We’re already in profit from this long-range tactic this season, thanks to 40/1 early-bird Wimbledon 2022 pick Ons Jabeur finishing runner-up at SW19, for a half-the-odds Each Way payout. We backed Jabeur at the best prices in April. Come July and the start of Wimbledon, she went off at 10/1.

Here are the four names & early prices that we’ve so far taken for the US Open 2022. Click on the date links to view the original Ones to Watch article and bet advice.

• All Outright Winner bets advised Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Men’s:

23rd February – CAMERON NORRIE @ 150/1, 100/1

Since we backed him, Cam has finished runner-up in Acapulco, reached the quarter finals at Indian Wells, won ATP Lyon, made the semi finals at Wimbledon, reached the final at Los Cabos, and the semi finals in Cincinnati. Norrie is now trading at 40/1 in general for the US Open, with Boylesports a top price 50/1 as I write today. He’ll be the 8th seed in New York as it stands (depending on the Djokovic situation).

1st August – HUBERT HURKACZ @ 50/1

We got Hubi in the book at the start of August, ready for the US Open Series hard-court swing in North America. As with 33/1 Norrie in Acapulco back in February, we’re already in profit from our Hurkacz bets this year, with our man finishing a 33/1 runner-up in Montreal this month, for a half-the-odds place return. Hurkacz can still be backed at 50/1 for the US Open today (Bet365, William Hill, Skybet, 888 Sport, Boylesports), although this market might get chopped up if the 6/4 (2.5) favourite Djokovic is removed from the field.

Women’s:

17th June – DAYANA YASTREMSKA @ 100/1

This pick was all about potential, with the feisty 22-year-old Ukrainian looking a Grand Slam contender back in 2020 before injuries and the pandemic hit. Since I was in the crowd to watch her beat Jelena Ostapenko in Birmingham this June, Dayana’s results have hit the skids again, with five defeats in a row causing her Grand Slam odds to drift. Her game is driven by a risk-taking, hit or miss approach, and if Yastremska does spring into form ‘out of nowhere,’ then she has a similar attacking game-style to the likes of Raducanu – and we know what happened with her last summer... Yastremska is currently trading at 150/1 for the US Open with Bet365, Ladbrokes & Coral, 100/1 BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway. And 200/1 with the less-mainstream sportsbook at NetBet, 10Bet, SportNation & LiveScoreBet.

5th August – AMANDA ANISIMOVA @ 33/1

While we did well by backing Jabeur early for Wimbledon this year, our bet on Ones to Watch regular Anisimova might hit the skids before it even gets started. Amanda beat Daria Kasatkina in the Cincinnati 1st round last week, but then withdrew ahead of her 2nd round match, citing an ankle injury. News has been scarce since, and it remains to be seen if she’ll be able to perform in New York. Maybe the ankle isn’t as bad as first thought. We’ll see. As it stands, Anisimova is still in the US Open field, named this week as the 24th seed. In the Outright Winner market, the American’s price remains around the same as when we backed her. Betfred are 33/1, Skybet and Unibet are 28/1, with Bet365, William Hill, Betway, and BetVictor at 25/1. Boylesports are a standout 40/1.

• Note: regarding injuries and withdrawals, different bookies have different rules for tennis Outright Winner markets. For example, Betfred are ‘All In, Compete or Not’ (eg. stakes lost if Anisimova doesn’t play). While the likes of Bet365 and Boylesports have a favourable ‘Non Runner, No Bet’ policy (eg. bets void with stakes returned). Find out more on this topic here

• Note: regarding the Djokovic situation, bookies such as Bet365 state in their online rules that they reserve the right to impose a ‘Rule 4 Reduction’ on an Outright Winner market, should the favourite pull out before the event begins. Eg. potentially reduce the winning odds for the men’s US Open market

A bit of swings & roundabouts there then, but we did well by backing Jabeur early-doors for Wimbledon, and we currently have four nice prices in the book for next week’s US Open.

I’ll be back soon with more big-odds build-up to the big one in the Big Apple!

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch