Tennis Betting Advice - August 2023
Ones to Watch this week - at 50/1 and 40/1...
Tuesday 1st August 2023
Keeping spreadsheets is not everyone’s idea of fun. But it’s a pursuit that certainly helps me keep tabs on players and tournaments that tend to pay out at big prices…
My records show that this week’s ATP Washington event has an enticing recent history of big-odds finalists. Three whoppers in the last four renewals, to be precise:
2022 – Yoshihito Nishioka – 100/1 – runner-up
2021 – Mackenzie McDonald – 66/1 – runner-up
(2020 – no tournament)
2018 – Alex De Minaur – 100/1 – runner-up
Two of those guys are in the Washington draw again this year. Nishioka is 40/1 this time, with McDonald 33/1 at best with Betfred and 28/1 or 25/1 in general. The way the draw is shaped this week, those two could end up meeting for a place in the quarter finals.
It’s one of those fields where I like quite a few of the players at the top of the betting – but don’t feel a strong urge to pick any one of them in particular. I’m talking here about the likes of Taylor Fritz (6/1 favourite), Sebastian Korda (17/2), Frances Tiafoe (9/1), and Hubert Hurkacz (10/1).
And if past form at this tournament is a noteworthy indicator, then it’s worth knowing that between them, that quartet of ATP Washington market leaders have only previously managed two quarter finals here (Korda and Tiafoe).
I may have named the eventual 2023 Washington winner there. But Ones to Watch isn’t about telling you who the favourites are…
Here are a couple of names that catch the eye at massive prices this week, and could put together an outsider run…
While our recent beaten picks Kevin Anderson (66/1 this week) and Ben Shelton (40/1 Betfred, 33/1, 28/1 & 25/1 elsewhere) could prove the latest example of our ‘curse of the next time out.’ I’m going to swerve those two here, and instead put up another pair of contenders at Each Way prices…
Ugo Humbert is a streaky player. The 25-year-old French left-hander has shown some classy play and consistent form recently – suggesting a first ATP final since 2021 could be on the cards soon…
The world no.36 has made two semi finals in a row in recent weeks, both in the States. Reaching the last four on grass at Newport, and then again on hard court at Atlanta. Humbert is 22/1 this week.
Another player with form and progression on their side right now is world no.37, Tallon Griekspoor. Available at 50/1 with Boylesports, and 40/1 elsewhere…
The 27-year-old Dutchman has tasted glory not once but twice this season – having previously never won an ATP singles title. Tallon took the honours on hard courts in Pune, India at the start of the year. And then pulled off a brilliant, emotional victory to claim the ‘s-Hertogenbosch trophy on grass, at home in the Netherlands in June. Confidence is catching.
Griekspoor has the power in his racket to hit through these Washington courts. Big ball-strikers have done well at this venue before (for example, Nick Kyrgios has won the title twice).
Down in Mexico at ATP Los Cabos, and also on hard courts that tend to reward big servers and strong forehands. I like two Chileans to do well in conditions in this part of the world. We’ve backed these two before at various events as Ones to Watch contenders…
The tall, big-serving Nicolas Jarry is a worthy title candidate here (12/1). And Cristian Garin is a better player than odds of 50/1 and 40/1 suggest…
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Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
ATP Washington – Mubadala Citi DC Open
ATP Los Cabos – Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel Oppo
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Bookies take down Outright Winner markets during play (5pm today UK time for ATP Washington, 2am for ATP Los Cabos).
You can watch both tournaments live on Amazon Prime Video, or on live streaming with the likes of Bet365 and Skybet.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone