Tennis Betting Advice - August 2023
Ones to Watch in Montreal - at 50/1 and 200/1...
Monday 7th August 2023
Our last two Ones to Watch finalists lifted the trophy. 28/1 Daniil Medvedev at ATP Rome this spring. And 40/1 Marketa Vondrousova at Wimbledon. We always bet Each Way for a reason, though…
At the big prices we go for, a half-the-odds payout for an outsider to reach the final can prove more profitable than backing a favourite for the title. That proved the case last night, with last week’s 50/1 or 40/1 Each Way pick Tallon Griekspoor finishing runner-up at ATP Washington.
Going after appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices again this week, we have two big tournaments to look at…
The tours are on their annual trip to Canada for the ATP/ WTA 1000 ‘Masters’ events that used to be known as the Rogers Cup. These men’s and women’s tournaments alternate each year between Montreal and Toronto. This time the ladies are in Montreal, and that’s where we begin our business this week…
Play starts at 4pm. And both of these players are on today’s match schedule, and priced as favourites to progress to the 2nd round. I like the underdog prices for both…
Belinda Bencic (50/1 - 40/1) and Sorana Cirstea (200/1 - 100/1) will both be glad to be back on North American hard courts for the US Open Series. And they look a little underrated in the betting to me.
This tournament has certainly produced a few shocks before. Last year (in Toronto), Beatriz Haddad Maia was a 66/1 runner-up. Last time the women landed in Montreal, Camila Giorgi won the biggest title of her career - going off at 80/1 and 66/1 in general, and touching 100/1.
World no.15 Belinda Bencic is making her Montreal debut here. Injuries and the like have stopped her visiting before. But in the Toronto version of this prestigious tournament, the talented Swiss player won the title as a teenager back in 2015.
Hard courts are Belinda’s best playing surface. The 26-year-old’s career highlights so far include an Olympic singles gold medal on hard courts, at Tokyo 2021. And she started this season like a train, winning two outdoor hard-court titles, in Abu Dhabi and Adelaide, before injury struck. A Last 16 result at the Australian Open wasn’t bad at all, considering she was only beaten by eventual champion, Aryna Sabalenka. They could meet again here in Canada…
World no.2 Sabalenka goes off as the 7/2 (4.5) second-favourite this week, playing her first tournament since losing to Ons Jabeur in the semi finals at Wimbledon. Any rust in the transition to hard courts? It’s possible. I don’t like Sabalenka’s price here. Too short for me.
The favourite is world no.1 Iga Swiatek, at 9/4 (3.25) at best and 2/1 (3.0) in general. Bencic held match point to knock Swiatek out in the Last 16 at Wimbledon. It didn’t pan out, but Belinda showcased how well she can play against the top names… Swiatek and Bencic are on opposite sides of the Montreal draw, and as such they can’t meet until the final this time.
One huge-price outsider in Swiatek’s top half of the draw-sheet is Sorana Cirstea. Age 33, the world no.32 is one of the late-bloomers enjoying success on the women’s tour. As with Bencic, the Romanian’s career formbook shows more match wins on outdoor hard courts than any other. Including some seriously noteworthy runs at two big WTA 1000 events in North America already this season - reaching the quarter finals at Indian Wells in March, backed-up impressively by reaching the semi finals at the Miami Open.
Back in 2013, Cirstea made the final at WTA Toronto as a huge outsider. Here in Montreal this week, older and wiser - and by her own admission, mentally tougher than in her earlier years - Sorana’s attacking game-style could see her spring a surprise. Triple-figure odds are well worth taking for a speculative outside bet.
In the 1st round today, Cirstea takes on Russia’s Varvara Gracheva. It might not be this one-sided… but in their one previous meeting, which came on hard courts in Melbourne in January, the Romanian romped to a 6-0, 6-0 victory.
The best price combination for Cirstea is to take 200/1 Win Outright with Betfred along with 125/1 To Reach the Final at Bet365.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
WTA Montreal – Omnium Banque Nationale presente par Rogers
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Bookies take down Outright Winner markets during each day’s play (4pm today, UK time).
You can watch live on Amazon Prime Video, or on live streaming with the likes of Bet365.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone