Tennis Betting Advice - August 2023

The decline of the Big 4 = big prices in the Masters...

Monday 14th August 2023

We’re on the road to the US Open. And with some big tournaments on the agenda this month – I’m here today to report some big prices in the Outright Winner betting…

With the dual men’s & women’s Masters 1000 event taking place in Cincinnati this week…

Hot on the heels of last week’s ATP & WTA 1000-grade tournaments in Canada. Which saw a pair of 50/1 finalists, Alex De Minaur in Toronto and Liudmila Samsonova in Montreal…

I’ve had my head in the numbers and formbook, and put together some ATP Masters 1000 observations…

The findings give plenty of encouragement for us to go after the big odds again in the upcoming instalments of these 1000-grade tournaments. The most prestigious competitions on the calendar outside of the four Grand Slams.

The key point here: new names are starting to appear in some of the most prestigious men’s finals. With the legendary old guard of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal & co finally losing their stranglehold…

ATP ‘Masters’ 1000 events

Finals played since start of 2021 season:


Toronto – Jannik Sinner beat Alex De Minaur

Rome – Daniil Medvedev beat Holger Rune

Madrid – Carlos Alcaraz beat Jan-Lennard Struff

Monte Carlo – Andrey Rublev beat Holger Rune

Miami – Daniil Medvedev beat Jannik Sinner

Indian Wells – Carlos Alcaraz beat Daniil Medvedev


Paris – Holger Rune beat Novak Djokovic

Cincinnati – Borna Coric beat Stefanos Tsitsipas

Montreal – Pablo Carreno Busta beat Hubert Hurkacz

Rome – Novak Djokovic beat Stefanos Tsitsipas

Madrid – Carlos Alcaraz beat Alexander Zverev

Monte Carlo – Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Miami – Carlos Alcaraz beat Casper Ruud

Indian Wells – Taylor Fritz beat Rafael Nadal


Paris – Novak Djokovic beat Daniil Medvedev

Indian Wells – Cameron Norrie beat Nikoloz Basilashvili

Cincinnati – Alexander Zverev beat Andrey Rublev

Toronto – Daniil Medvedev beat Reilly Opelka

Rome – Rafael Nadal beat Novak Djokovic

Madrid – Alexander Zverev beat Matteo Berrettini

Monte Carlo – Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Andrey Rublev

Miami – Hubert Hurkacz beat Jannik Sinner

That list shows that 21 different players have contested the last 22 ATP Masters 1000 finals:

Alex De Minaur
Jan-Lennard Struff
Holger Rune
Borna Coric
Pablo Carreno Busta
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Carlos Alcaraz
Casper Ruud
Taylor Fritz
Rafael Nadal
Novak Djokovic
Daniil Medvedev
Cameron Norrie
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Alexander Zverev
Andrey Rublev
Reilly Opelka
Matteo Berrettini
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hubert Hurkacz
Jannik Sinner

What’s more, 15 of those 21 players made their first appearance in a Masters 1000 final:

Alex De Minaur
Jan-Lennard Struff
Holger Rune
Pablo Carreno Busta
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Carlos Alcaraz
Casper Ruud
Taylor Fritz
Cameron Norrie
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Andrey Rublev
Reilly Opelka
Matteo Berrettini
Hubert Hurkacz
Jannik Sinner

And that list features some massive pre-tournament prices in the Outright Winner markets – including:

Coric 150/1 champion
Carreno Busta 100/1 champion
Hurkacz 100/1 champion
Fritz 100/1 champion
Norrie 66/1 champion
Rune 33/1 champion
Medvedev 28/1 champion

Struff 200/1 runner-up
Davidovich Fokina 150/1 runner-up
Opelka 150/1 runner-up
Basilashvili 100/1 runner-up
De Minaur 50/1 runner-up
Berrettini 50/1 runner-up
Ruud 40/1 runner-up
Sinner 33/1 runner-up

  • Bookies generally offer odds of 1/2 odds Each Way for reaching the final (eg. runner-up) 

The changing of the guard…

In comparison, pre-2021 and the pandemic. The ATP Masters 1000 silverware had long been dominated by the established big names in the men’s game…

For example, prior to 2021, nine of the 10 Masters events had been won by either Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Daniil Medvedev.

With Federer now retired, and the injured Nadal set to follow him next year. While Djokovic and Andy Murray are both 36 years old…

The ‘changing of the guard’ moment we’ve been anticipating in the men’s game for some time looks like it might really now be taking place. Especially after this summer’s classic Wimbledon final, where 20-year-old Carlos Alcaraz took the crown from Djokovic.

Six down, three to go…

And with those recent massive prices in mind. We can look forward to the upcoming ATP Masters 1000 events with relish:

  • Cincinnati this week

  • Shanghai & Paris in October

Not forgetting the small matter of the US Open coming up at the end of the month…

And I haven’t even told you about the track record of massive prices on the women’s tour!!

More to come from me tomorrow. Keep an eye on your emails. I’ll be in touch by lunchtime on Tuesday. Play starts at 4pm UK time in Cincinnati…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

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