Tennis Betting Advice - August 2024
Ones to Watch in Cincinnati - at 40/1 and 100/1...
Tuesday 13th August 2024
We almost landed on another finalist last week. Our 20/1 shot Emma Navarro was beaten in the WTA Toronto semi finals.
Last week’s Masters events in Canada saw some big, post-Olympics upsets…
The men’s tournament in Montreal produced a 150/1 champion, with Alexei Popyrin winning his first ever ATP 1000-grade title. Beating 28/1 Andrey Rublev in the final.
While the women’s National Bank Open trophy was retained by the defending champ, Jessica Pegula (22/1), overcoming fellow American, Amanda Anisimova (66/1). Anisimova being one of the names I gave an ‘honourable mention’ to in your pre-season, Ones to Watch in 2024 Report.
Expect surprises…
This week we have another joint ATP & WTA Masters 1000 event, with the men & women both in the States for the Cincinnati Open…
Cincinnati has a track record of producing big-odds finalists and surprises. Making it keen Ones to Watch territory for us this week – with the US Open on the near horizon at the end of the month…
For example, at Cincinnati in recent times:
I could go on – but I think you get the point…
Cincinnati often means: big odds. And that’s what we like here at Ones to Watch…
Today’s play starts from 4pm UK time, and will run late into the evening each night this week. The Cincinnati finals are scheduled for next Monday.
Here are my big-odds selections from the off. Appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices.
Bookies generally pay half the odds for reaching the final (and remember, sometimes you can beat the place terms by heading to the Reach the Final market with the likes of Bet365).
ATP Cincinnati (Men’s):
Back in 2017, Grigor Dimitrov won this title as a 33/1 shot. He went on to win the end-of-season ATP Tour Finals for us that year. But the Bulgarian then had to wait all the way until this January to taste trophy success again. Age 33, Grigor is now back in the world’s Top 10 again. And the Indian Summer of his career may not be done yet…
Last week in Montreal, he lost in the round of 16… but Dimitrov had match points there, and the man who beat him, Alexei Popyrin, went on to win the whole thing. Dimitrov appeals as a solid 50/1 – 40/1 underdog in the betting this week.
In the opposite side of the draw, last week’s 33/1 pick Casper Ruud is 50/1 this time; understandable given that he withdrew during Montreal. We’ll swerve him here. But with top seed Jannik Sinner on the other half of the Cincinnati drawsheet, maybe this is the section to go hunting for a truly massive price…
An exciting young player for us here, with the no-fear attitude to raise his game against bigger-name opponents:
Flavio Cobolli at 150/1 or 100/1 has momentum and talent. And in this segment of the Cincinnati draw, 5th seed Hubert Hurkacz could be vulnerable against an energetic underdog (the Pole is only recently back from injury)…
The 22-year-old Cobolli is having a breakthrough season on the ATP Tour. Up to a career-high ranking of no.31, and reaching his first final the other week, on hard courts at the ATP 500 in Washington (as a 25/1 shot). Flavio has already won his opening match here in Cincinnati, beating our recent Montreal pick Tommy Paul in three sets last night. Let’s get on the young Italian at big prices, while he’s on a streak.
WTA Cincinnati (Women’s):
In the women’s draw, things look as fascinating and wide-open as ever. World no.1 Iga Swiatek has made it clear she is using the event to ‘practise’ some new tactics/ moves on court, with one eye very much on the upcoming Grand Slam in New York. While reigning champ and current world no.2, Coco Gauff continues to look a dodgy favourite, with double faults and scrappy performances creeping back in this summer.
A stack of our favourite/ frequent Ones to Watch picks are all in the same parts of the draw here, making it hard to make a case for one over the other. For example, Marta Kostyuk, Linda Noskova, Mirra Andreeva, Emma Navarro, and Jasmine Paolini – are all in Swiatek’s quarter. With world no.3 Aryna Sabalenka seeded to be a possible semi-final opponent.
Of course, shocks are what we’re always positively looking for. And in terms of prices, from those names listed above, the biggest one to take is Linda Noskova at 100/1+…
The Czech youngster has already beaten Swiatek this season, on hard courts. And with Linda taking an initial break after a busy time of it in Paris at the Olympics, where she got to the semi finals in the Doubles. The teenager can get back to Singles business here, with hard courts being the surface where Noskova has come closest to pulling off a big outsider run this year (Australian Open quarter finals, Brisbane semis).
In the other half of the draw, Qinwen Zheng at 12/1 is too short for me right now. We’ve tended to back her at more like 33s and 28s. One to take a chance on at a bigger price is Paula Badosa at 40/1…
The Spaniard reached the quarter finals here in 2021, before injuries derailed her for some time. Paula has been back playing with a smile on her face this summer, though. And winning, too…
Badosa won WTA Washington earlier this month; her first title since 2022. Three of the 26-year-old’s four career titles have come on hard courts, including Indian Wells (1000-grade, same as Cincinnati).
Injury/ fitness concerns do tend to linger around a player like Badosa. But on the other hand, she has a 3-2 career head-to-head record v Gauff (2-1 on hard courts). And should they meet again here, as could well be the case. Then the most nerves might be on the American’s side of the net…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
ATP Cincinnati – Cincinnati Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
WTA Cincinnati – Cincinnati Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Still to price-up Outright markets at time of writing: Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
Bookies will take down today’s prices at 4pm, and the markets will reappear tomorrow morning.
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I’ll be back later in the week, with some more early-bird US Open business for us…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone