Tennis Betting Advice - February 2018

12/1 Kyle can show his class on clay...

Monday 12th February 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • 12/1 Kyle can show his class on clay...
  • ATP Buenos Aires – play starts 5pm...
  • Back Karlovic in New York tonight...

I’m going to be away from my computer for a couple of days at the end of the week, so we’re getting a lot of business done early.

Last night we got on 10/1 Simona Halep for the WTA Doha event. Having taken a closer look at this week’s three other tournaments there is another player & price that I want us to get on today...

The ATP Rotterdam event see Roger Federer at 11/10 (2.10) bossing the Outright Winner betting. While in the inaugural New York Open the returning-from-injury Kei Nishikori heads the field at 9/2 (5.50) – with Nishikori being a four-time winner of the only indoor hard court tournament on the US leg of the ATP World Tour, under its previous guise in Memphis.

12/1 Kyle can show his class on clay...

Looking beyond the favourites, I like Kyle Edmund’s chances on clay in Buenos Aires.

You don’t instantly associate a British player with clay in the same way you would say an Italian, Spanish or South American – but Edmund played a lot of tennis on clay in his formative years and has spoken before of how he likes the surface...

On the lower-tier Challenger Tour – one below the main ATP Tour – Edmund has a 22-9 win-loss record. His last outing at that level saw him win the Rome Challenger on clay in 2016. The year before, Kyle was here in Argentina winning the Buenos Aires Challenger on clay.

Looking deeper and further back, Edmund’s ITF-level career was even more prolific on clay with a 52-20 win-loss record including four titles.

More recently at full ATP Tour level, Edmund had some tough draws last season – losing on the ‘red dirt’ to the likes of Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem (the current top two in the French Open 2018 betting). But he showed promise nonetheless including a 3rd Round appearance at Roland Garros where he lost a five-set epic against an in-form Kevin Anderson.

Edmund turned the tables on hard courts at the Australian Open last month, beating Anderson in five sets this time in the biggest win of his career – and the ensuing run to a first Grand Slam semi final can be seen as a significant breakthrough for the 23-year-old Brit.

Kyle is still yet to reach a first ATP final, but he looks to be improving fast and if he crunches his forehand the way he was doing in Melbourne, he’ll hit plenty of winners in any match and on any surface. The higher ball bounce on clay can allow Edmund to really unload on his shots.

In terms of this week’s Buenos Aires draw, tournament favourite and top seed Thiem is a 9/4 (3.25) shot and in the opposite half of the draw – as are the dangerous but unreliable Fabio Fognini (14/1) and Gael Monfils (8/1).

In Edmund’s half, the men seeded above him are Diego Schwartzman (6/1), Albert Ramos-Vinolas (11/1) and Pablo Carreno-Busta (8/1)...

All three are established clay-courters but looking for weaknesses here: Schwartzman has gone out in the 1st or 2nd Round three years running at this event, Ramos was a finalist in Ecuador on Sunday (so might be in need of rest) and his best showing at Buenos Aires has been the quarter finals – and Carreno-Busta looked far from him best last week (losing his opening match 2-0 at ATP Quito) and is won 2 lost 4 at this tournament.

With Edmund on an upward trajectory right now, he could prove value this week at 12/1 Each Way.

  • Play starts from 5pm UK time – the bookies’ Outright Winner markets will temporarily be taken down while matches are in play

ATP Buenos Aires – Argentina Open

Outright Winner

BET: Kyle Edmund @ 12/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 12/1 (13.00) Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway
STAKE: 1 pt – Each Way
Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Back Karlovic in New York tonight...

Jared Donaldson v Ivo Karlovic

ATP New York – New York Open
Match scheduled: 9pm

Rankings: Donaldson #58, Karlovic #89
Head-to-Head: Karlovic 1-0 (2016)

Looking at today’s match schedules and one Match Winner pick stands out for me...

Ivo Karlovic may be 38 years of age but the 6’11” Croatian is still a scary opponent for many a player – thanks to his absolutely massive serve.

The man they call ‘Doctor Ivo’ has rained down an incredible 177 Aces in five matches so far this year, including Aces totals of 27 and 24 in his two best-of-three-set matches in Quito last week. On the ATP overall career standings, Karlovic has bit more Aces than any other player.

This week he makes the journey from Ecuador up to New York and the transition from an outdoor clay court to an indoor hard court. The change in conditions shouldn’t bother this experienced pro too much. Karlovic is a former finalist at this indoor hard court event at its previous venues in Memphis and San Jose.

His 21-year-old American opponent Jared Donaldson will have the crowd cheering for him tonight, but Donaldson has a tough match in store here – the American has lost three out of five matches so far in 2018 and Karlovic won their only previous meeting in straight sets, 6-4, 7-6, 6-3 at the US Open in 2016.

Karlovic should simply be too strong on serve for Donaldson. At 8/11 and 4/6 he looks a good match pick here.

ATP New York – New York Open

BET: Ivo Karlovic to beat Jared Donaldson @ 8/11
BOOKIES: 8/11 (1.73) William Hill, 7/10 (1.70) BetVictor, 4/6 (1.67) Paddy Power, Boylesports, Betway
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be tomorrow with an update and our plans for the rest of the week.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch