Tennis Betting Advice - February 2018

5pm match - another long one in store for Victor...

Thursday 8th February 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Tiebreak wins…
  • Paire plays tonight…
  • Bet for today – another long one in store for Victor…

Tiebreak wins…

We had a nice win from our Tiebreak in the Match selection yesterday, with the first two sets both going to a Tiebreak in a 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 win for Pierre-Hugues Herbert over fellow Frenchman Kenny de Schepper in Montpellier.

Each of the last four meetings between those two have now seen at least one Tiebreak set.

Paire plays tonight…

Sticking with the ATP Montpellier event and in the Outright Winner betting we have our 25/1 or 20/1 Each Way pick Benoit Paire in action this evening in his second match.

The bookies make Paire the slight favourite to beat John Millman, at 8/11 (1.73). The Aussie is a tough opponent and will fight hard. Paire will need to be on his game but he looked good in his opening match and has played well indoors in his homeland and at this venue several time before.

I have a bet for us today in a match scheduled for 5pm UK time…

Another long one in store for Victor…

Victor Estrella Burgos v Gerald Melzer

ATP Quito – Ecuador Open
Match scheduled: 5pm+

Rankings: Estrella Burgos #86, Melzer #98
Head-to-Head: 2-2

I’ve spoken about Victor Estrella Burgos a few times already this week. He’s the reigning three-time champion here at Quito and is played 16 won 16 at the event.

It’s not all been plain sailing though and the 37-year-old from the Dominican Republic will have his work cut out again against his 27-year-old Austrian opponent today.

Gerald Melzer is an experienced clay-courter and crucially has played a lot of tennis in South America on clay courts, often at altitude…

Estrella Burgos has spoken of how the high altitude in Quito (nicknamed ‘The City in the Sky’) helps his own game. Melzer – younger brother of former Top 10 player Jurgen Melzer – ended last season with five straight appearances in South American clay court events on the lower-tier ATP Challenger Tour. His run there, most recent first, was final (won), final (won), semi final, semi final and quarter final – the most recent of which was in Ecuador, although not as high up as Quito.

The bookies make the match prices almost 50-50 with the slight edge being given to Estrella Burgos. That looks about right. The head-to-head is 2-2 and this looks set to be a clay court battle that could take the full three sets to be decided…

Estrella Burgos had to come from a set down in his first match this week (Total Games = 28) and the tallies in his five matches here last year were 38, 26, 20, 39 and 27. All told 10 of his 16 matches at this venue have paid out on Over 22.5 Games.

Melzer is no stranger to a battle here either, with four of his five main draw matches in Quito going Over 22.5 Games – with the totals 18, 35, 35, 23 and 33.

Victor will have his backers but for me the ‘long match/ close match’ angle is the one to take with the bookies’ Over 22.5 line looking quite generous in the circumstances.

ATP Quito – Ecuador Open

Victor Estrella Burgos v Gerald Melzer

BET: Total Games – Over 22.5 Games @ 4/5
BOOKIES: 4/5 (1.80) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, 8/11 (1.73) Stan James
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be back tomorrow with an update, and a look ahead to the weekend and beyond.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch