Tennis Betting Advice - February 2018

Follow the value in Acapulco tonight...

Wednesday 28th February 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Follow the value in Acapulco tonight...
  • Two match picks in the Men’s...
  • Lopez and Ebden as underdogs...

Follow the value in Acapulco tonight...

There are four tournaments this week but so far all the opportunities catching my eye are in Acapulco.

Both the men & women are in Mexico for the respective ATP & WTA Acapulco events.

So far we’ve been involved in the women’s with Kristina Mladenovic our Each Way pick in the Outright Winner market at 18/1, 16/1 or 14/1.

Mladenovic won her opening match 6-2, 6-2 last night, against her friend and fellow Frenchwoman, Amandine Hesse.

Kristina made the final here last year and with the favourite from her side of the draw Belinda Bencic knocked out in the opening round, our pick is now 8/1 at best for the title, and as short as 6/1. She plays again tonight.

We have value on our side in Acapulco there.

Last night we were also on a good-price match outsider with Pauline Parmentier backed to beat the struggling Sloane Stephens at 11/4 (3.75), and also with a +4.5 Games Handicap.

US Open winner Sloane continues to struggle – it really wasn’t a very convincing performance at all – and although our selection Parmentier lost 6-4, 6-0, I still believe Stephens is ripe for opposing at the moment. Her body language wasn’t good and she was missing plenty of shots. Unfortunately for us, Parmentier missed even more. I watched the match and let’s just say it wasn’t a classic.

The quest for value continues and if we keep backing players and prices that we deem to be on the right side of value, then I firmly believe that we will come out ahead over the course of the season and beyond.

Two such matches catch the eye in Mexico this evening...

Ebden and Lopez the underdog value...

Jared Donaldson v Matthew Ebden

ATP Acapulco – Abierto Mexicano Telcel

Match scheduled: 10pm+

Rankings: Donaldson #59, Ebden #87
Head-to-Head: 1-0 Ebden (2015)

We successfully opposed Donaldson in New York a couple of weeks ago, and at the prices I like Ebden as an underdog here...

The 30-year-old Australian is a bit of a journeyman player but like I said about his fellow Aussie, John Millman the other day – he will keep an opponent honest.

Ebden is no stranger to grinding out wins and against a less experienced opponent in the 21-year-old American, he can get the match win tonight at a decent underdog price.

Confidence should be high for Ebden after knocking out reigning champ Sam Querrey in his opening match. Donaldson on the other hand made it through his 1st Round match with his opponent retiring in the second set.

Ebden is the value in this one.

ATP Acapulco – Abierto Mexicano Telcel

Match Winner

BET:  Matthew Ebden to beat Jared Donaldson @ 8/5
BOOKIES: 8/5 (2.60) Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 6/4 (2.50) BetVictor, SunBets, Bet365, William Hill
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

Feliciano Lopez v Thanasi Kokkinakis

ATP Acapulco – Abierto Mexicano Telcel

Match scheduled: Tonight (Thurs approx. 1am, UK time)

Rankings: Lopez #38, Kokkinakis #199
Head-to-Head: 1-0 Lopez (2014)

If you’re Evens+ (2.00+) to win a tennis match then it means you’ve been priced up as the slight underdog in a close-looking contest.

That’s the situation with Lopez here and the 36-year-old tour veteran looks on the good side of the prices for me.

The Spaniard hit 18 Aces in his 1st Round win and his left-handed serve and forehand is his major weapon. Kokkinakis is played 2 lost 2 against left-handed players on the main tour, with those defeats coming against Rafael Nadal (arguably the greatest ever lefty) – and Lopez.

Kokkinakis is way younger at just 21, but has been battling with injuries for some time and as such struggles a bit for consistency. He was given a Wild Card into the draw here.

The same can’t be said for Lopez who is a reliable player and having benefitted from Nadal pulling out of this tournament and therefore not having had to play him, should see this as an opportunity to have a good few days on court in Acapulco.

ATP Acapulco – Abierto Mexicano Telcel

Match Winner

BET:  Feliciano Lopez to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis @ Evens
BOOKIES: Evens (2.00) Betway, Bet365, Boylesports, 19/20 (1.95) BetVictor
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be back on Thursday with your next update. Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch