Tennis Betting Advice - February 2018

Total Games pick for Rio today...

Wednesday 21st February 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Konta wins opener...
  • Total Games pick for Rio today...

Konta wins opener...

I said I’d write to you Tuesday but it’s now Wednesday morning. Apologies for that – I’m back with full access to my usual desk set-up now and it will be business as usual. The match I’m looking at today is scheduled for 7.30pm UK time – see below.

Johanna Konta won her opening match in Dubai on Monday. Our 12/1 Each Way pick was a 7-6, 6-2 winner over Anastasia Pavluchenkova and next faces the young Russian, Daria Kasatkina this afternoon.

Kasatkina was on our Ones to Watch in 2017 list and looks a star of the future for sure.

The higher-ranked Konta is priced up as the match favourite today, and won their only previous meeting 2 sets to nil on hard courts in Sydney last January.

Our Monday match pick lost, with the underdog Maria Sakkari beaten 6-1, 6-4 by Sam Stosur in the Dubai qualifiers. Since the end of the Australian Open we’ve had four out of five successful match picks.

Today I’m looking to the Total Games market...

Total Games pick for Rio today...

Albert Ramos-Vinolas v Nicolas Jarry

ATP Rio de Janeiro – Rio Open

Match scheduled: 7.30pm+

Rankings: Ramos-Vinolas #19, Jarry #94
Head-to-Head: n/a

We had a Tiebreak winner on Nicolas Jarry this month in a match in Ecuador that ended up going to three sets and featuring a total of 30 games.

He could be in for another tough match on the South American clay courts today...

As we noted last week, the young Chilean is strong on serve. Jarry didn’t lose his serve once in his first match in Rio this week, winning 6-3, 7-6 (Total Games = 22).

The 22-year-old’s previous five matches on the tour had all gone the distance to three sets and all had at least 29 Total Games.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas is the older, higher-ranked and more experienced player and a 2/5 (1.40) favourite to win this match. However the Spaniard has had to work hard for his wins lately...

His last four matches have all gone to the full three sets and all had at least 28 Total Games, including a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win in his opening match here in Rio this week.

The bookies have set the Total Games market at 22.5 Games here, and 12 of the Spaniard’s last 15 matches have gone ‘Over’ that line.

The form, price and the Over 22.5 Games line all look good here...

ATP Rio de Janeiro – Rio Open

Albert Ramos-Vinolas v Nicolas Jarry

BET: Total Games – Over 22.5 Games @ Evens
BOOKIES: Evens (2.00) Paddy Power, Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Marathonbet, 10/11 (1.91) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, BetVictor, 888 Sport
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be tomorrow with an update, and a look at the latest matches & opportunities in this week’s tournaments.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch