Tennis Betting Advice - February 2018

Bank on the ‘Sloane slump’ to continue...

Monday 26th February 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Bank on the ‘Sloane slump’ to continue...
  • Acapulco the focus so far...
  • More to come on Wednesday...

Our Sunday night early-bird bet for this week was on Kristina Mladenovic for the WTA Acapulco tournament.

Mladenovic was a best price 18/1, 16/1 and 14/1 last night. She can still be backed today at 14/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes (at the time of writing).

Play starts in Acapulco at 10pm, UK time – so the bookies will take their Outright Winner markets down during play overnight.

Sticking with the women’s event in Acapulco, there’s a value price I like for a match set to be scheduled for Tuesday evening (if not Wednesday)...

Bank on the ‘Sloane slump’ to continue...

Sloane Stephens v Pauline Parmentier

WTA Acapulco – Abierto Mexicano Telcel

Match scheduled: Tuesday 9pm+ (TBC)

Rankings: Stephens #13, Parmentier #92
Head-to-Head: 1-1 (last meeting Parmentier 2016)

Sloane Stephens is a name that conjures up nothing but good for us – having won the US Open as our Ones to Watch pick last season, with some of you collecting big payouts on the American at 40/1 and 50/1.

However, sport can be brutal and betting has little room for sentimentality – since that life-changing Grand Slam win in New York, Sloane has yet to win a match...

A post-Grand-Slam-win slump is nothing new in tennis, and Stephens looks very much in a bad run of form right now having lost five matches in a row (and retired from another when losing).

She hasn’t played Pauline Parmentier since 2016 (lost on clay) and their only hard-court meeting was a 2 sets to 1 win for Stephens right back in 2012.

In both previous meetings backing the Frenchwoman with a +4.5 Games Handicap would have paid out with games to spare. With the situation in mind, this week’s match looks a pretty good opportunity to back Parmentier with a head-start.

Neither player has been in great form so far in 2018, but the pressure and spotlight is on Stephens so this represents something of a free hit for her 32-year-old opponent.

Stephens is only 24 and has plenty of time to get her game back. But right now we can’t be having short prices and top-level favouritism for her in the betting – Sloane is just 1/4 (1.25) to win the match and is also odds-on to win by 5 games or more on the -4.5 Games Handicap.

Parmentier has to be the value here and I like her in both markets – the match win at 11/4 (3.75) and around Evens+ (2.00) with a +4.5 Games Handicap.

WTA Acapulco – Abierto Mexicano Telcel

BET:  Pauline Parmentier to beat Sloane Stephens @ 11/4
BOOKIES: 11/4 (3.75) Bet365, SunBets, Boylesports, BetVictor, 13/5 (3.60) Betway, William Hill
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

BET:  Pauline Parmentier +4.5 Games Handicap to beat Sloane Stephens @ Evens
BOOKIES: Evens (2.00) Betfred, Betfair Sportsbook, Marathonbet, Betway, 9/10 (1.90) Bet365, Coral, William Hill
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be back on Wednesday, looking at more of this week’s tournaments and match opportunities for us.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch