Tennis Betting Advice - February 2018

Tiebreak value in France tomorrow...

Tuesday 6th February 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French themes...
  • Our man in Montpellier...
  • Tiebreak value in France tomorrow...

French themes...

Yesterday I said I was interested in the match between Victor Estrella Burgos and Thomaz Bellucci.

As anticipated, it was a close one, with the 4/7 (1.57) match favourite Estrella Burgos coming from a set down to win 2-1. He’s now beaten Bellucci four years running on the ATP Quito clay courts. And as we’ve already noted, Estrella Burgos has gone on to win the Quito title the previous three times.

Estrella Burgos was a 12/1 winner of this tournament for us last year. He’s currently around the same price for what would be an unprecedented fourth successive title at the venue (he’s never won an ATP title anywhere else).

However there’s a big name in his side of the draw – the presence of 4/1 shot Gael Monfils puts me off an Outright Winner pick on the 37-year-old reigning champ from the Dominican Republic.

Ordinarily, Monfils would be more likely to be found in France during this week of the season. He’s a two-time winner of the ATP Montpellier event, but has instead elected to make a debut appearance in Quito, Ecuador.

Maybe the Frenchman fancied his chances here on the clay instead of indoors against a stronger-looking field back in Montpellier. I don’t know. What I do know is that Monfils is a class act – and a potential semi final opponent for Estrella Burgos.

We’ll keep an eye on how the draw unfolds in Quito this week. But for the time being we’re staying in France...

Our man in Montpellier...

Five of the last seven Montpellier winners have been French, and we have a ‘home player’ on our side at a good price this week.

Benoit Paire, our 25/1 or 20/1 Each Way pick, won his opening match on Monday evening – beating Mischa Zverev 6-4, 6-4. Paire didn’t lose his serve once – saving the five break points that he faced – and that straight-sets win looks a confident start to the week for him.

Paire’s next match won’t be until Thursday, but I’ve spotted an opportunity for us in Montpellier tomorrow...

Tiebreak value in France...

Kenny de Schepper v Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Rankings: De Schepper #146, Herbert #76
Head-to-Head: n/a
Match scheduled: 9am+

The main ATP Tour head-to-head is 0-0 for these two Frenchmen, but they’ve actually met four times before in lower-tier matches – and the stats point us towards the Tiebreak markets...

Even before I’d seen the scores from the previous meetings, I had this one down as a ‘serve-fest’ – two tall players who rely largely on serve, playing on an indoor hard court.

The formbook backs that thinking up. Each of their last three meetings have featured at least one Tiebreak set (7-6 score), including a 7-6, 6-4 win for Herbert in their most recent meeting which – like this one – was in France on indoor hard courts. There was just one break of serve in that match.

The year before they met on clay and it was a very close score-line, with just two breaks of serve in a match that went the distance to three sets with a 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 win for Herbert.

The higher-ranked Herbert stands 6’2” and plays right-handed. De Schepper is a towering 6’8” left-hander – and has made plenty of appearances in Montpellier...

This is de Schepper’s seventh successive year in Montpellier, and he has racked up several Tiebreak sets in that time:

In Qualifying last weekend he had a 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 win. De Schepper reached the quarter finals last year and three of his five matches featured at least one Tiebreak set.

The point here is that we might not see many breaks of serve between these two. In those situations, the Tiebreaker often comes into play.

With this match-up in mind I’m surprised to see the ‘Tiebreak in the Match?’ prices suggesting that ‘No’ is more likely than ‘Yes.’ Odds of Evens+ (2.00+) look good value here.

For bigger prices the Set Score (7-6) and First Set Tiebreak options might also appeal to you. But for me the Tiebreak in the Match is the standout opportunity here.

ATP Montpellier – Open Sud de France

Kenny de Schepper v Pierre-Hugues Herbert

BET: Tiebreak in the Match – Yes @ 6/5
BOOKIES: 6/5 (2.20) SportingBet, Bwin, 11/10 (2.10) Ladbrokes, Coral
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be on Thursday with your next Ones to Watch members-only email.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch