Tennis Betting Advice - February 2019
First picks of the week – at 16/1 and 40/1…
Sunday 10th February 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Each Way is okay…
So far this year we’ve got three players into finals, and each time we’ve had to settle for the Each Way payout.
At the prices we bet at, those half-the-odds place returns are not to be sniffed at.
And as I said last week, if we keep getting our Outright Winner picks into quarter finals, semis and finals – then we’re giving ourselves plenty of chances to land a big one.
After 14/1 Daniil Medvedev and 14/1 Ajla Tomljanovic last month, we kicked off ‘Frantic February’ with 25/1 Pierre-Hugues Herbert getting to the final at ATP Montpellier.
I write to you having just watched that Montpellier final. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was a deserved winner on the day. Herbert did well to begin with in the first set but his confidence dipped when things got edgy at 4-4, serving a couple of Double Faults. Tsonga powered on to take the trophy, 6-4, 6-2.
After that all-French final, Montpellier has now seen seven French winners in nine years. Tsonga was 8/1 at the start of the tournament. Herbert was a 25/1 or 20/1 Each Way pick for us, giving a 10/1+ place payout, and a profit for the week.
The week’s tournaments in Montpellier, Sofia and Cordoba produced finalists at 5/1, 8/1, 20/1, 25/1, 33/1, 150/1. As those numbers show, going for big Each Way prices is the way to go…
Ones to Watch this week – at 16/1 and 40/1…
There are four tournaments on this week’s schedule. The Women return from international Fed Cup duty with the Premier event in Doha. The Men are in action on clay in Buenos Aires and on indoor hard courts in Rotterdam and New York.
I’ve got notes and a few thoughts on Rotterdam and Buenos Aires, so we might move in with a player or two for those on Monday or Tuesday. We’re kicking off the week today with Each Way picks for Doha and New York, where the players and prices are very clear to my mind…
At 16/1, Kiki Bertens is a more than fair price to take the WTA Doha title. The Dutchwoman is up to a career high of No.8 in the world, and looks well placed to continue her rise up the rankings. In her last 10 WTA events, Bertens has made three finals (won all three) and reached two further semi finals. Including a strong start to 2019 with a semi final in Sydney followed by a trophy win at St Petersburg last time out. So far in 2019, the 27-year-old has served more Aces than anyone else on the WTA Tour.
While many of the top women have been busy on international Fed Cup team duty over the last week – including 7/2 (4.50) Doha favourite Simona Halep, and 5/1 (6.00) Karolina Pliskova – Bertens has had a week off from competitive action so can arrive fit & ready for business here. Bertens plays Camila Giorgi in the 1st Round; the Italian lost both her Singles matches at the Fed Cup last week.
ATP New York is one of the newest events on the calendar. It started last year and made a minor splash by being the first tournament to have black courts. All you really need to know about those courts is that they played fast last year, with the big servers making hay. The final was contested by Kevin Anderson beating Sam Querrey – two of the tallest men in the game, and two of the biggest servers.
These conditions should suit the confident, big-hitting Tennys Sandgren. The 27-year-old American won ATP Auckland last month as an 80/1 outsider, and served brilliantly throughout. That was his first ATP title – and a big leap forward in more ways than one, as Tennys’ previous best results had all come on home soil…
Sandgren’s previous 11 appearances in finals at all levels came in the USA. Sandgren avoids top seed and 11/4 (3.75) favourite John Isner in New York, placed in the opposite side of the draw. Wild card entrant Frances Tiafoe at 9/2 (5.50) is something of a second favourite by default, after reigning champion Anderson and a couple of other names pulled out.
While Isner and Tiafoe are short, single-figure prices, the in-form Sandgren is by far the better value of the Americans, at 20/1 and 16/1 in general. And especially at the eye-catching 40/1 on offer in the initial Outright Winner market at Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook…
Today’s Ones to Watch Outright Winner picks are:
WTA Doha – Qatar Total Open
BET: Kiki Bertens @ 16/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 16/1 (17.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365
ATP New York – New York Open
BET: Tennys Sandgren @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 (41.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 20/1 (21.00) William Hill, 16/1 (17.00) Bet365
Play starts on Monday morning. I’ll be back on Monday or Tuesday with more on this week’s tournaments.
Enjoy the tennis…