Tennis Betting Advice - February 2020

Acapulco update – Edmund & Zidansek in the quarter finals…

Thursday 27th February 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Acapulco – quarter finals…
  • 20/1 Edmund now 7/1…
  • 40/1 Zidansek now 4/1…

There’s no such thing as a ‘sure thing’…

Just because a player is the favourite and a short price, it doesn’t mean they’re going to win.

There is no such thing as a ‘sure thing,’ in tennis, or in any other sport for that matter.

Just last week, for example, Dominic Thiem was one of the shortest prices to win a tournament that you’ll see all year…

In the Outright Winner market for the ATP Rio de Janeiro event, Thiem was just 11/10 (2.10) to win.

That was the Austrian’s first clay-court appearance of the season. He won just two matches, bowing out in the quarter finals, where he was beaten in straight sets by a 100/1 qualifier, Gianluca Mager.

  • In the ATP Rio market, we opposed Thiem, backing 10/1 shot Cristian Garin instead. The 23-year-old Chilean went on to lift the trophy last Sunday night

Vulnerable favourites…

There’s more evidence this week. In the men’s & women’s events in Acapulco, several seeds and favourites have fallen in the early rounds…

ATP Acapulco:

  • Nick Kyrgios (7/1 and defending champion) – KNOCKED OUT. Managed just one set of tennis before retiring injured in the 1st round
  • Alexander Zverev (5/1) – KNOCKED OUT. Lost in 2nd round, 2-0. With the ‘yips’ coming back to haunt him on his serve this week, Zverev posted 8 Double Faults in his 1st round match, then 9 Double Faults in his 2nd round defeat

WTA Acapulco:

Top three in the betting all KNOCKED OUT in the 1st round…

  • No.1 seed Sloane Stephens (5/1), No.2 seed Yafan Wang (10/1 and 2019 champ) and household name Venus Williams (9/1)
  • Stephens has now lost 4 out of 4 matches in 2020. Yafan Wang has lost 5 out of 6. And 39-year-old Venus has lost 2 out of 2 so far this season

With injury, serve issues and loss of form all in evidence there, you can see why I call those ‘vulnerable favourites.’

Two quarter-final chances…

You never know what’s going to happen on a tennis court. You can’t control how a player performs or if they get ill or injured. But you can control the odds that you bet at…

At Ones to Watch, I’m only interested in one thing: appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices…

This week in Acapulco, we have two players still in the running, with two good prices on our side:

  • In the men’s event, 20/1 Kyle Edmund is through to the quarter finals on Thursday night. The bookies now make Edmund 7/1 for the title
  • And in the women’s, Tamara Zidansek at top prices of 40/1 and 33/1 is also through to the quarter final stage. Zidansek’s odds have now been cut right down to 4/1

Edmund is a 4/6 (1.67) favourite to beat Taylor Fritz. Expect both of these young men to attempt a similar style of ‘two-strike’ tennis – big first serve, then looking to end the point on the second shot. This quarter final is likely to be decided by whoever executes that game-plan best and most consistently.

Zidansek is a 2/5 (1.40) favourite to beat home hope, Mexican outsider Renata Zarazua.

Fritz v Edmund is scheduled for 12.30am, UK time. Zarazua v Zidansek is from 2am.

If you’re up late, you can watch both matches live on Amazon Prime Video. (If you prefer to catch up in daylight hours, Amazon also show replays.)

March Mayhem approaching…

Every Sunday night I publish my latest tournament previews, analysis and Outright Winner picks. I call this our ‘Sunday Night Club’...

This Sunday evening I’ll be sending out my picks for next week’s tournaments. There are two events on the women’s schedule. We’ll be targeting the big prices in Lyon and Monterrey.

And also coming up in March, the huge events taking place at Indian Wells and Miami. Those two have seen some whopping prices in recent years, including 125/1, 100/1, 80/1, 66/1 & 50/1 winners and/ or finalists. That’s why I call it March Mayhem!

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch