Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021

Take 33/1 on the Murray River...

Tuesday 2nd February 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Play starts 11.30pm…
  • ATP Murray River Open…
  • One to Watch at 33/1…

I was up ‘til 3am last night. Katie Boulter won though, so it was worth it…

The Brit put in an excellent comeback performance, digging in and finishing strongly. Coming from a set and a break down to beat Coco Gauff, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2.

For the second match running, Gauff failed to close out for what would’ve been a two-sets-to-nil win. Serving at 5-4 in the second set, the American teenager was comfortably broken. Fair play to Boulter, who was aggressive, and knew the 16-year-old would be feeling the tension.

From then on, it was all Katie. Winning the next two games to love, to snatch the second set – and take charge.

Match Winner odds of 11/2 (6.5) and 5/1 (6.0) looked big yesterday – and so it proved. Well done to Katie.

Coco’s double-fault problem came back to haunt her in the final set. Gauff served three double faults when losing her serve in what turned out to be the last game of the match.

As I write, Boulter is trending on Oddschecker at 500/1 for the Australian Open. I’m not sure about that. But stranger things have happened, I guess. And if she sees off Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka at 9/1 tonight, then people will really start talking. I’m not anywhere near as optimistic as I was yesterday v Gauff, though.

Thanks to Ones to Watch member Andy for this excellent email this morning:

“RE: Katie's got a chance at 5/1... Nice one Tom, Woke up this morning and found an extra £110 in my account, so a great start to February. That covered the £111 I spent on new clothes for my wife on Sunday. After the garden work she had done last year out of the French Open winnings, I think she will already be working out what she can spend my next winnings on lol!”

Tonight’s tennis…

On the Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning upset radar, two players that I’m a fan of should give a decent account of themselves against big-name favourites at the WTA Yarra Valley Classic

Marie Bouzkova is a 3/1 underdog against World No.1 Ashleigh Barty.

And Tsvetana Pironkova is the same 3/1 price to topple a 0-5 head-to-head record v Serena Williams. The Bulgarian came close last time, going down 2-1 at the US Open, when running as a 100/1 outsider for us in New York.

I’m not quite temped in this time. Although I wouldn’t rule out Bouzkova and/ or Pironkova taking a set and making a real match of it.

In this week’s Outright Winner markets in Melbourne, we’re on three players, and they all successfully got over the first hurdle and won their opening matches:

  • In the Gippsland Trophy, 16/1 Elise Mertens won her 1st round match 6-2, 6-2 last night. She faces a tough but winnable encounter with Caroline Garcia tonight (11.30pm UK time)
  • At the Great Ocean Road Open, 22/1 Kevin Anderson and 150/1 Kwon Soon-woo are also in 2nd-round action overnight

The Grampians Trophy starts this evening. This tournament has been specifically arranged for the women that had to go into ‘hard quarantine’ upon arrival in Australia last month.

Star attraction Bianca Andreescu has pulled out of yet another draw. The Canadian will now attempt her injury comeback at the Australian Open next week. As ever, the question will be, is she fit enough to do it?

In Andreescu’s absence, the Grampians Trophy field is still bossed by some intimidating favourites: Victoria Azarenka (4/1), Elena Rybakina (5/1), Maria Sakkari (5/1), Jennifer Brady (7/1). Those odds are from William Hill.

I’m a fan of all four of those women. But I’m going to keep them more in mind for the Grand Slam event coming up.

Take 33/1 on the Murray River…

There’s one tournament that we haven’t covered yet, and that’s the ATP Murray River Open

As mentioned yesterday, all eyes and ears will be on Aussie star Nick Kyrgios here. He’s around 5/1 for the title, having squeezed through his opening match against a player ranked outside the world Top 200 last night, 7-6 in the final set. A thumping 22 aces helped.

Like I said on Monday, Nick at short odds is not a bet for me. In his side of the draw, a talented and right-attitude player to get behind instead is Borna Coric

At 33/1 and 20/1+, the 24-year-old Croatian won’t be getting anywhere near the column inches that 25-year-old Kyrgios does. But Coric is a former Junior star, and in recent times has shown glimpse of fulfilling his potential on the main tour.

Borna ended the tricky 2020 season with a US Open quarter final run and ATP Saint Petersburg runner-up trophy under his belt.

The head-to-head v Kyrgios is 2-2, and Coric won their most recent meeting, on hard courts in Miami in 2019.

I think Coric can put in a fair showing here. He looks underrated to me.

Ones to Watch:

ATP Murray River Open, Melbourne

Outright Winner – Each Way

  • Borna Coric is 33/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 25/1 Betway, 22/1 Bet365, Betfred, 20/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Play starts from 11.30am, UK time.

I’ll be back tomorrow with another update from Melbourne, as we count down to the start of the Australian Open next week.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch