Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021

Australian Open: Day 3 - The Perfect 10 at 30/1...

Tuesday 9th February 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Australian Open – Day 3…
  • Play starts Midnight…
  • Match Winner picks…

Welcome to Day 3 of your Ones to Watch Australian Open daily service…

We’re only two days in, but we’ve already seen an early contender for match of the tournament…

Don’t be fooled by the 2-0 score-line in Elina Svitolina’s win over our pick Marie Bouzkova last night. The 6-3, 7-6 scoreboard doesn’t show the full story.

It was a fantastic match. Well worth staying up for. Even if we didn’t get the result we were looking for.

There were stacks of epic rallies, and the level was really, really high. That’s the best I’ve seen Svitolina play in a long time.

Bouzkova was excellent, too. Our Czech underdog pick had a set point to take the match to a decider, but she couldn’t quite knock Svitolina off her perch.

The long game…

The positive takeaway for me there? One day, I reckon Bouzkova will put together a deep run at a Grand Slam…

I’ve now backed Marie at the last two hard-court Majors: 500/1 this week, and 150/1 at the US Open last year. She’s on our 2021 list of young & improving players. The 22-year-old remains very much ‘one to watch.’

  • We’ll also have to wait for future tournaments to see if the likes of Hubert Hurkacz (300/1) and Maria Sakkari (50/1) can come to fruition at a Grand Slam. Both were on the wrong end of shock, final-set match losses in the 1st round last night
  • I’ll be targeting the top half of the women’s draw again in the days ahead. As it stands, we’ve got Nadia Podoroska through to the 2nd round in that section (top price 250/1 yesterday)

At those kinds of massive prices, as I stated ahead of yesterday’s Outright Winner picks, you have to be happy to wait for a player to come good. That’s fine with me. But it’s a word of warning if you’re new to Ones to Watch.

You’ll never hear me promising overnight riches. Although that doesn’t mean we won’t be trying…

Attempting the Perfect 10…

As an unwritten rule, there are only four times a year that you’ll see me entertain the notion of a big-price accumulator on the tennis. And that’s at the four Grand Slams…

The early rounds of the Majors give us a huge match list to shoot at, with everyone keen to produce their A-game, to collect the biggest prize money on the biggest stage.

Tonight’s first wave of 2nd round matches at the Australian Open contains a total of 32 match-ups across the men’s & women’s Singles draws. Here are 10 players that, in my opinion, can deliver on their Match Winner odds:


  • Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Pedro Martinez – Ruusuvuori is on our Ones to Watch in 2021 list, and holds a 2-0 head-to-head v tonight’s opponent
  • Adrian Mannarino to beat Miomir Kecmanovic – Mannarino is priced up as the slight underdog here, but is more experienced in the early rounds of Grand Slams, and beat Kecmanovic 2-0 on hard courts in Germany last year
  • Taylor Fritz to beat Reilly Opelka – the battle of the big American servers here. Fritz has had Opelka’s number in all but one of their 6 previous meetings on tour (5-1 head-to-head)


  • Ann Li to beat Alize Cornet – 20-year-old Ann Li is touted as a rising star for USA. She’s on a roll right now, winning 5 matches out of 5 since arriving here in Melbourne, and up to a career-high ranking of No.69 
  • Bianca Andreescu to beat Su-Wei Hsieh – Andreescu is one of my picks for the tournament, at 20/1. The Canadian can continue her injury comeback by proving too strong for the tricky veteran, Su-Wei Hsieh
  • Marketa Vondrousova to beat Rebecca Marino – Voudrousova leads the head-to-head 1-0, and has enough in her locker to see off the returning-to-the-tour 30-year-old, Rebecca Marino
  • Petra Kvitova to beat Sorana Cirstea – Kvitova knows how to dig in and win these Grand Slam week-one matches, even when not playing at her best. Her head-to-head is 5-2 v Cirstea, an opponent who is prone to wobbling in big situations
  • Venus Williams to beat Sara Errani – battle of the veterans here, with 40-year-old Venus fancied to hold too much power for 33-year-old Errani. Venus should get plenty of chances to attack the Italian’s second serve
  • Veronika Kudermetova to beat Varvara Gracheva – 23-year-old Kudermetova is up to a career-high No.36 in the world, and has dark-horse potential in this women’s Australian Open draw (she’s one of my outsider picks in the Outright Winner market, at 100/1+). Kudermetova has the power and momentum to see off her younger Russian opponent here
  • Ons Jabeur to beat Anna-Karolina Schmiedlova – Jabeur was a quarter-finalist here in 2020, and in round one this week, nobody hit more winners off their racket than the Tunisian

If you like the look of that list, then the 10-fold acca pays a top-price 30/1. Or pick and choose any that you prefer. I’ve included my notes above, so you can see my thinking.

Note: for Match Winner accas, I always recommended using a bookie that goes by the ‘bet void’ rule in the event of a match retirement. That way, if one of our players retires during their match, they will drop out of the accumulator – rather than bringing it crashing down. More on this topic here. Always check the terms & conditions with whichever bookmaker you use.

The 10-match combo is ambitious, of course. But if there’s ever a time to land one of these, it’s a Grand Slam.

As well as the full-house attempt, I also like the two biggest prices on that list as Singles. Those being Adrian Mannarino to beat Miomir Kecmanovic at Evens (2.0). And Taylor Fritz to beat Reilly Opelka at 4/5 (1.8).

Popcorn tennis…

Elsewhere on the Day 3 schedule, if it’s pure entertainment you’re after, then two matches to tune into late at night or first thing in the morning are Aryna Sabalenka v Daria Kasatkina in the women’s, and Nick Kyrgios v Ugo Humbert in the men’s…

Sabalenka v Kasatkina is power v grace, ball-thumping v slices & dropshots. The head-to-head is 1-1. Should be fun.

Kyrgios is likely to provide fireworks as usual, with the home crowd behind him. French left-hander Humbert was one of the most improved players on the tour last season. The bookies make it just about 50-50, with the slight edge to the Australian big name.

Kyrgios has a winning career record against lefties, so that’s in his favour. This match could snake either way, though.

Ones to Watch:

Match Winner

  • 10-fold acca – 10 players to win, as listed above. Pays 30/1 with William Hill, 28/1 BetVictor, 27/1 Bet365, 26/1 Betway
  • Adrian Mannarino to beat Miomir Kecmanovic is Evens (2.0) with William Hill, Bet365, Betway, Boylesports, BetVictor
  • Taylor Fritz to beat Reilly Opelka is 4/5 (1.8) with William Hill, Bet365, 3/4 (1.75) BetVictor, 8/11 (1.73) Betway, Boylesports

Play starts from Midnight.

I’ll be back at 5pm tomorrow with my Day 4 analysis, picks and advice for you.

If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch