Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021
Australian Open: Day 7 - and 66/1 for the consolation prize...
Saturday 13th February 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 7 of your Ones to Watch Australian Open daily service…
The harsh beauty of the tennis scoring system was on show again last night.
We nearly got all three of our women through to the Last 16. Kaia Kanepi had a match point for a straight-sets win, with the score at 7-5, 5-4. But the Estonian couldn’t quite get over the line against Donna Vekic.
The Croatian fought back to win 5-7, 7-6, 6-4, in a match that was every bit as close as that score-line suggests.
That’s the way it can go with the tennis scoring system: you can experience the agony of having a match point, but ending up losing; and the ecstasy of saving a match point, and going on to win.
My all-nighter was worth it, though. With our 33/1 pick Elise Mertens taking care of Belinda Bencic, 6-2, 6-1. And 100/1 shot Jessica Pegula sweeping past Kristina Mladenovic, also by a dominant straight-sets, 6-2, 6-1 score-line.
I’m happy to have those two through to week two, which is when things get serious at a Grand Slam. Mertens is now 16/1 to win a maiden title here at the Australian Open. Pegula’s price has been chopped in half, to 50/1. So far, both players are yet to drop a set.
Day 7 crackers...
I don’t have any match picks today. The Day 7 schedule looks like a superb one for entertainment, though. It’s a case of settling down in the armchair to enjoy the action...
Nobody beats Milos Raonic 12 times in a row?
On Sunday morning, Novak Djokovic v Milos Raonic is all about whether or not Djokovic is fit enough to compete. The career head-to-head is an overwhelming 11-0 to the World No.1.
If Novak really is struggling badly, then the Raonic 3-0 Set Betting win could end up looking a steal at 7/1. But then again, if the scoreboard is looking that bad, then Djokovic may well retire in-play.
Massive 4th round matches...
As we’ve discussed in week one, the bottom half of the women’s draw is stacked with big names. A point illustrated by the fact that four of the six current favourites for the trophy are all in this side of the draw…
Those four women play tonight, across two blockbuster 4th round matches. With a place in the quarter final up for grabs, these could be real crackers:
Garbine Muguruza v Naomi Osaka
Aryna Sabalenka v Serena Williams
And if that’s not enough excitement overnight, the Sunday morning clash between Iga Swiatek and Simona Halep is a re-match of last season’s French Open 4th round encounter…
In Paris, Swiatek stunned Halep 6-1, 6-2, en route to her 100/1 title charge (a story that we’ll never tire of telling). Going into this one, both women are 12/1 each for the Australian Open title.
And talking of re-matches, the other Day 7 women’s tie is Su-Wei Hsieh v Marketa Vondrousova…
The Taiwanese trickster gave us a 13/5 (3.6) winner when beating Vondrousova in the first week of the new season. It was a close one, with Su-Wei Hsieh winning by two sets to one.
Tonight, the 35-year-old is the underdog again, although this time a little shorter in the betting, at 2/1 (3.0) at best.
66/1 for the consolation prize…
To help the players knocked out in week one get some more tennis under their belt while in Australia, the Melbourne Park venue hosts another tournament this week...
The WTA Phillip Island Trophy is a 250-grade event, which is the lowest main-tour WTA tier in terms of ranking points up for grabs. That makes it a ripe hunting ground for the less-heralded players to get their hands on some silverware…
The likes of Sofia Kenin and Bianca Andreescu - both Grand Slam winners - would be strong favourites in an event like this in normal circumstances. But after what we saw at the Aussie Open last week, I’m even less interested in backing a 9/2 (5.5) shot than I usually would be.
Instead, I’ve got two players to follow at much nicer prices…
Marie Bouzkova was a 500/1 outsider selection for the main event in Melbourne. As I wrote after her defeat to Elina Svitolina, Bouzkova was playing very well. And there should be much more to come from the 22-year-old, this season and beyond.
A tournament like this 250-grade event represents a decent opportunity for Bouzkova to go after a first career trophy. Odds of 33/1 and 25/1 appeal.
Bouzkova is in the bottom half of the draw (Andreescu’s side). In the top half, where Kenin is the big name, I reckon someone like Rebecca Peterson could go deep, at a big price...
The 25-year-old has won two trophies at hard-court events of similar status to this one. Recent losses here in Melbourne to Vondrousova and Shelby Rogers could be an indicator of the Swede finding a bit of form here. Vondrousova and Rogers are both still in the running at the Australian Open. Peterson pushed them both to a deciding set.
Peterson is an unflashy player and doesn’t get many column inches. Injuries have hampered her in the past. But staying on in Melbourne for this new tournament is a good sign. Odds of 66/1 and 50/1 are well worth taking for a speculative off-the-radar selection.
Not every bookmaker appears to be covering the Phillip Island Trophy with an Outright Winner market. But as I write, Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes & Coral have priced up.
Ones to Watch:
WTA Phillip Island Trophy
Outright Winner – Each Way:
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Play starts at Midnight.
I’ll be back at 5pm Sunday with your Day 8 email for the Australian Open.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…