Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021

Australian Open: Day 8 - including Fognini v Nadal...

Sunday 14th February 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Australian Open – Day 8…
  • 4th round chances...
  • Phillip Island Trophy...

Welcome to Day 8 of your Ones to Watch Australian Open daily service…

Saturday’s action produced a mixture of shocks and superlatives...

The three women’s popcorn matches all went the distance to three sets.

Naomi Osaka saved two match points, coming from behind to beat Garbine Muguruza. Serena Williams also won 2-1, against Aryna Sabalenka. And Simona Halep came from a set down to take out Iga Swiatek.

In the men’s, Aslan Karatsev pulled off a big shock, coming from two sets to nil down to beat the youngster, Felix Auger-Aliassime.

There was also an underdog victory for Grigor Dimitrov, who knocked out Dominic Thiem, 3-0.

There’s lots more bigtime tennis coming up for us to enjoy this week, with the quarter finals starting from Monday night.

Mertens and Pegula on Day 8...

The Day 8 schedule is an important one for our Outright Winner picks. We’ve got two women in action in the 4th round, both gunning to reach the quarter finals…

Our 33/1 shot Elise Mertens is a 1/2 (1.5) favourite to beat Karolina Muchova, and one win away from getting the chance to land our 6/1 bet in the 1st Quarter Winner market. Mertens beat Muchova 2-0 on indoor courts towards the end of last season. A repeat on Monday morning (7am UK time) would be very nice.

And in the realm of the 100/1 outsider, we have Jessica Pegula taking on Elina Svitolina. That match is first up, with play starting from Midnight. In this one, our player is the underdog. Svitolina beat Pegula 2-0 last month. The American has been on fire so far though, playing the tennis of her life, and certainly has a chance of causing an upset here.

Focusing on two men’s matches...

Two men’s matches that could prove particularly entertaining tonight are Andrey Rublev v Casper Ruud, and Fabio Fognini v Rafael Nadal

Everyone is predicting comfortable wins for Rublev and Nadal. Both are no better than 1/7 (1.14) in the Match Winner betting. Very short prices.

And the straight-sets wins are odds-on too, with Rublev 3-0 at 4/6 (1.67) in the Set Betting market, and Nadal 3-0 at 10/11 (1.91).

My own feeling is that both matches could be a bit closer than that. I have some notes from the formbook to back that up…

Rublev doesn’t always get the job done in the most straightforward manner, especially once the stakes are raised, as they are here in the 4th round of a Grand Slam.

At the Australian Open last year, two of the Russian’s three match wins were by the 3-1 score. At the French Open, only one of his four wins was achieved in straight sets. And at the US Open on his beloved hard courts, Rublev’s 4th round win over Matteo Berrettini required four sets.

Add in the fact that opponent Ruud is fast improving, and has taken a set of Andrey in two of their three previous meetings. The 3-1 Rublev win appeals here as an 11/4 (3.75) shot.

Likewise for Nadal to win 3-1 v Fognini. The unpredictable Italian is having one of his good tournaments so far, and that makes him dangerous. Fognini has definitely troubled the great man before, and got under his skin. Famously coming from two sets down to beat Rafa 3-2 at the US Open in 2015. While such a spectacular result would be hard to make a big case for here, I do think Fabio can get a set on the board.

Nadal hasn’t been in 100% beast-mode so far. It could be that he’s just warming up, or it could also be his much talked-about back issue/ injury.

Either way, only one of their last five meetings has seen Rafa win in straight sets. Compared to the short prices mentioned above, Nadal 3-1 at 11/4 is a decent price pick here.

Also in action in Melbourne tonight...

As discussed yesterday, the WTA Phillip Island Trophy is also being held at the Melbourne Park venue this week...

After an underdog win against Anastasia Potapova last night, the 66/1 and 50/1 on Rebecca Peterson has now gone. Peterson plays again tonight (Midnight). As does my other Each Way outsider for this tournament, 33/1 Marie Bouzkova.

Not every bookmaker is getting involved with the Phillip Island Trophy. But as I write, there are Outright Winner markets available with Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, and Skybet. With Peterson & Bouzkova now trading at 20/1 or 22/1 each.

Ones to Watch:

Set Betting

  • Rublev to win 3-1 v Ruud is 11/4 (3.75) with Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Boylesports, 13/5 (3.6) and 5/2 (3.5) elsewhere
  • Nadal to win 3-1 v Fognini is 11/4 (3.75) with Boylesports, Skybet, 27/10 (3.7) William Hill, 13/5 (3.6) and 5/2 (3.5) elsewhere

I’ll be back at 5pm Monday with your Day 9 email, when we’ll be taking a first look at the quarter finals.

If you have any questions or want to drop me a line, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch