Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021
Australian Open: Day 11 - Women's Semi Finals...
Wednesday 17th February 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 11 of your Ones to Watch Australian Open daily service…
Jessica Pegula gave a great effort last night, but in the end, the favourite Jennifer Brady had too much for her…
Playing in hot conditions, our 100/1 outsider won the first set, and almost got herself properly ahead a couple of times after that. But her compatriot finished stronger, and Brady moves on the semi finals, with a 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 win.
We were right to attack this top half of the women’s draw. While the bottom half will see big-star names Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka battle it out for a place in the final. The top-section title challenger will be Brady or Karolina Muchova – with both looking to reach a first Grand Slam final…
On day one of the Australian Open, Brady was 33/1, and Muchova was 100/1.
Semi Final angles at 9/2…
As noted in the 4th round, where the three blockbuster matches between Williams & Sabalenka, Osaka & Muguruza, and Halep & Swiatek, all went the distance to three sets. The 2-1 Set Betting option is one well worth following in these nervy, bigtime women’s matches…
Yesterday’s quarter finals saw Muchova come from a set and break down (and looking completely out of it) against World No.1, Ashleigh Barty – eventually pulling away to win, 2-1. A medical timeout early in the second set proved to be a dramatic turning point, and talking point. To be honest, above all, I think Barty choked. But the ice-cool Muchova deserves all the plaudits for getting the win.
Going into tonight’s women’s semi finals, I’m keenly drawn to the two biggest prices in the Set Betting markets. Those being Serena Williams to win 2-1 Osaka. And Muchova to win 2-1 v Brady.
As I’ve said many times before, there are only two ways to win a women’s tennis match: 2-0, or 2-1. With upsets, tension, comebacks, medical timeouts, and two close-looking match-ups. My aggressive approach here is to take the top prices for the 2-1 scores.
Serena has won her last two meetings with Osaka. And while I’m usually the first to make the case for opposing Williams in recent years, I have to say that at this tournament she’s looked the best I’ve seen her for a long, long time.
Brady is the favourite to beat Muchova, and make it an all-American final. Muchova won their only previous meeting, 2-1 on clay, in 2019. Maybe we can’t read too much into that…
But one thing that is significant is that Muchova has come from behind on the scoreboard to win in some big matches this Melbourne fortnight. Including 5-0 down in the second set in the 3rd round against Karolina Pliskova, 5-2 down to Elise Mertens in the opening set in the 4th round. And a set & a break down v Barty yesterday in the quarters. If the outsider starts slow again – don’t rule her out.
Make a 50/1 move for Wimbledon…
And while we’re on the subject of Karolina Muchova, now is the time to get her in the book for Wimbledon at odds of 50/1…
As highlighted in my pre-season Ones to Watch in 2020 report at the start of last year, Muchova has the craft to carve out winning performances on the turf of SW19. And as we’ve seen here in Melbourne, the 24-year-old Czech loves to play on a fast surface.
Here’s what I wrote about Karolina, in that report published back on Christmas Eve, 2019…
A great ‘onboard computer’ and the ability to think fast and be creative on court also mark Muchova out as one to watch on grass and at Wimbledon...
One of the highest compliments we can pay this rising Czech star is to compare her to the now-retired former Wimbledon finalist, Agnieszka Radwanska. The Polish player was famed for making up for her lack of power with a mesmerising array of drop-shots, lobs and slices – winning the WTA Shot of the Year award year after year. Muchova looks set to take up that mantle.
Wimbledon was cancelled in 2020. In 2019, Muchova made the quarter finals.
As I write this afternoon, Muchova’s name is missing from the Oddschecker lists for the French Open and US Open 2021. The Wimbledon market has her name in it, though, and odds of 50/1 appeal as an early-bird pick for this summer.
Boylesports are already down to 25/1 for Muchova at Wimbledon. That price could be the general theme in a day or so, especially if she wins tonight and reaches a debut Grand Slam final.
33/1 Bouzkova in the semis tonight…
Last but not least, we still have one big-price Ones to Watch player running for us here in Melbourne this week. And that’s 33/1 & 25/1 shot Marie Bouzkova in the WTA Phillip Island Trophy – now trading at 5/1 for the title…
Bouzkova is through to the semi finals, where she’ll face the tournament favourite Bianca Andreescu tonight. The American has scraped through the draw to get this far, including a brace of close 2-1 victories, and one match where her opponent retired injured.
Marie has had a similarly meandering route through, but is playing some good stuff, and certainly has a chance to push on for a first WTA title this week.
If you want to protect your stakes, a bet on Andreescu is one option; a play on another 2-1 score-line is another.
Ones to Watch:
Australian Open – Women’s Semi Finals
Set Betting:
Wimbledon 2021
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way:
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
I’ll be back at 5pm tomorrow with your Day 12 email.
P.S
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson