Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021

Australian Open: Day 12 - Medvedev v Tsitsipas...

Thursday 18th February 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Australian Open – Day 12…
  • Men’s Semi Final – Medvedev v Tsitsipas…
  • 33/1 Bouzkova in the Phillip Island final…

Welcome to Day 12 of your Ones to Watch Australian Open daily service…

We’re bookending our month-long stay in Australia with a pair of WTA finalists…

At the start of the Melbourne summer of tennis, 16/1 Each Way Ones to Watch pick Elise Mertens won the WTA Gippsland Trophy.

And this week, we’ve got 33/1 Each Way selection Marie Bouzkova into the final of the WTA Phillip Island Trophy, which is also being held here at the Melbourne Park venue.

Match-point magic…

The magic, misery and mayhem of the tennis scoring system was on show again this morning…

Bouzkova came through a three-hour battle with the tournament favourite Bianca Andreescu, 6-7, 6-2, 7-5…

In the first set tiebreaker, both women had a set point. In the final set, Bouzkova came from 0-3 down, and then saved two match points at 4-5.

It was a bit of a nerve-jangler, I’ll be honest. But after our 50/1 pick Kaia Kanepi had a match point but went on to lose against Donna Vekic in the Australian Open 3rd round last week, I’d say we can call things more than even with the tennis gods.

Our 33/1 & 25/1 Outright Winner pick Bouzkova will face one of my favourite players, Daria Kasatkina, in the final…

If you’re on Bouzkova, Each Way, then you are assured of a half-the-odds place payout if Marie ends up collecting the runner-up trophy (and of course, a big win if our player takes the title). But if you want to even your bet-book up a bit, then you might want to have a match-day stake on Kasatkina, who is the bookies’ favourite to win.

The head-to-head is 1-0 to Daria, with a 2-1 win over Bouzkova on indoor hard courts at WTA Ostrava last autumn. Both women’s semi-final matches went the distance to three sets overnight. So, strap in for another potential scoreboard rollercoaster.

Kasatkina’s last trophy win was at WTA Moscow in 2018. The Russian was a 22/1 winner for us that week, dramatically coming from behind to win the final. This time, we’re rooting for Bouzkova to beat her.

  • The WTA Phillip Island Trophy final is at 4am (UK time), on the 1573 Arena show-court. You can watch live on Amazon Prime Video. Or, as may be more suitable considering the time difference, Amazon show match replays on demand 

Medvedev v Tsitsipas…

Back to centre court at the Australian Open now, with the men’s semi final at 8.30am, on the Rod Laver Arena…

Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are two the young guns, looking to claim a first Grand Slam title.

Tsitsipas had a 3-2 classic v Rafa Nadal in the quarter finals, while Medvedev won 3-0 v Andrey Rublev. The fatigue factor could be evened out somewhat by the fact that Stefanos has played a match less than Daniil at this tournament, having received a Walkover from the injured Matteo Berrettini in the 4th round.

If you’re a long-time Ones to Watch follower, then you’ll know I like it when the bookmakers decide to price up serving markets for the semi finals and finals at Grand Slams. Here’s my take on the Aces and Double Faults for this mouth-watering encounter…

Aces and Double Faults…

The last-52-weeks stats on the official ATP Tour website show that Medvedev averages 9.0 Aces per match, with Tsitsipas at 6.7. And Medvedev is averaging 3.3 Double Faults per match, with Tsitsipas as 2.1.

With those numbers in mind, you can see why the markets have the Russian as the favourite in both serving categories for Friday morning’s big match.

However, if we look at the head-to-head serving figures between these two players, in their six previous matches. And their individual Australian Open 2021 numbers so far. The picture becomes more interesting, with the averages a bit closer…

ACES – head-to-head:

Medvedev – Tsitsipas
6 – 5
6 – 9
2 – 2
6 – 3
8 – 4
6 – 6
Total = 34 – 29
Average per match = 5.67 – 4.83

DOUBLE FAULTS – head-to-head:

Medvedev – Tsitsipas
0 – 0
1 – 3
3 – 2
4 – 1
2 – 6
5 – 2
Total = 15 – 14
Average per match = 2.5 – 2.33

ACES – Australian Open 2021:

Medvedev – Tsitsipas
57 – 43 but Medvedev played a match more
Average per match = 11.4 – 10.75
Average per set = 3.35 – 2.69

DOUBLE FAULTS – Australian Open 2021:

Medvedev – Tsitsipas
15 – 14 but Medvedev played a match more
Average per match = 3.0 – 3.5
Average per set = 0.88 – 0.88

Potential for a tie…

The averages for both the six-match career head-to-head, and the tournament-to-date, show these two men are closely matched in the Aces and Double Faults departments…

With Medvedev roughly worth less than an Ace per set more than Tsitsipas. And both pretty much level-pegging for Double Faults.

Two of their six previous meetings have produced an Aces tie (albeit in best-of-three set matches, as opposed to the best-of-five Grand Slam format).

And their Double Faults averages are coming out neck-and-neck in my stats.

The ‘Tie’ options catch my eye for a couple of speculative bets here, with odds of 14/1 and 11/2 available, as described in the tables below.

  • Not all bookies have these markets. Shopping around, I’ve listed Bet365, Skybet, Sportingbet & Bwin, and also Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (although the latter don’t bet on the tie)

A serving ‘draw’ isn’t as crazy as it might sound. For example, in the quarter finals this week, Novak Djokovic v Alexander Zverev ended 23-21 on the Aces count, with the Double Faults level at 5-5.

Here are those serving prices for Medvedev v Tsitsipas:

Medvedev v Tsitsipas Serving Prices

Ones to Watch:

Daniil Medvedev v Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Most Aces: Tie is 14/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Sportingbet, Bwin
  • Most Double Faults: Tie is 11/2 with Bet365, Skybet, Sportingbet, Bwin

I’ll be back tomorrow and at the weekend, as we look at both the men’s & women’s Australian Open finals. Plus, the WTA Adelaide tournament is scheduled for next week, so we’ll be casting an eye over the draw and Outright Winner prices there, too.

If you have any questions or want to drop me a line, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch