Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021

Sunday Night Club – 20/1 and 28/1 picks…

Sunday 28th February 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Sunday Night Club…
  • Ones to Watch at 20/1 and 28/1…
  • 4/1 Sheriff to upset Sakkari…

Welcome to our Sunday Night Club. There are four tournaments kicking off on Monday. Here’s my early take on the Outright Winner markets, as we look to get a couple of attractive Each Way prices in the book…

ATP 500 Rotterdam – Felix Auger-Aliassime at 28/1

Felix Auger-Aliassime features in our Ones to Watch in 2021 report. He looked very good in the early rounds at the Australian Open the other week, reaching the 4th round.

Th silverware stat for Felix is: seven finals, seven runner-up trophies. He’s still searching for that first ATP title. But seven finals – and a Top 20 ranking – at the age of 20 is nothing to worry about. Most youngsters looking to break through on the tour can’t match that level of performance and consistency.

Each of Felix’s three finals last year came at indoor hard-court events, including here in Rotterdam.

This week’s tournament is an ATP 500-grade event. Two of Auger-Aliassime’s previous runs to finals have been at 500 level. With pre-tournament Outright Winner prices of 50/1 at Rio de Janeiro in 2019, and 66/1 here at Rotterdam in 2020.

The talented young Canadian started 2021 with a streak to the final at the ATP 250 Murray River Open in Melbourne, where he was 10/1. At the Australian Open he was 100/1.

Odds of 28/1, 25/1 and 20/1+ appeal for another big week for this very promising player. A first big piece of silverware looks on the horizon soon.

Felix faces Kei Nishikori in the 1st round on Monday afternoon. Nishikori was a semi-finalist here in 2019, but is currently on the first steps back on tour after his latest long injury layoff. Auger-Aliassime is the 2/5 (1.4) favourite to beat him.

Looking further ahead in this section of the Rotterdam draw, the big name is tournament favourite and new World No.3, Daniil Medvedev. Five of the Russian’s nine career ATP titles have come indoors. Odds of 15/8 (2.88) are very short here, though.

If there’s a post-Grand Slam comedown for the beaten Aussie Open finalist, then he could be vulnerable. Medvedev made the semi finals here in Rotterdam in 2019. But he crashed out in the 1st round last season – when also going off as the tournament favourite (3/1).

WTA 500 Doha – Ons Jabeur at 20/1

Ons Jabeur is one of the best players on the tour yet to win a WTA title. The Tunisian reached the quarter finals here last season. And she’s well aware of what it would mean to do well in this part of the world as an Arab player:

"Honestly, I want to aim big in these two tournaments. I think it's a big deal for an Arab man or woman to win one of these tournaments. If I were to win a title, I want it to be in either Doha or Dubai. I love it here. It doesn't stress me to play in Arab countries.”

Jabeur is supremely talented. She’s capable of devastating forehands, the deftest of dropshots, and the meanest of slices.

Ons beat Karolina Pliskova here last year, and would need to do so again. Pliskova is seeded No.2, and as such has a Bye through to the 2nd round – where she’ll play either Jabeur, or a qualifier. I’m not interested in the Czech here, in with the short, single-figure favourites for the Doha title at 9/1 and 8/1. Karolina has looked out of sorts and low on confidence for some time now.

My first word on this week’s other tournaments:

  • ATP 250 Buenos Aires – qualification matches still taking place as I write, no Outright markets up just yet. I’ll keep you posted with any selections at the start of the week
  • WTA 250 Lyon – hard to get excited about any of the Outright prices here. Ekaterina Alexandrova has the indoor hard-court credentials, but odds of 7/2 (4.5) are very short for any player to win any WTA event right now. In the opposite side of the draw, Ones to Watch in 2021 name Fiona Ferro is a player I really like, and has a great draw on paper. However, odds of 11/1 just don’t do it for me for Ferro on hard courts – she’s at her most dangerous on clay

4/1 match pick for Monday…

In the Match Winner markets, we’re also on the hunt for value. I have this one lined up as an underdog pick on the Monday schedule…

In Doha, an upset could be on the cards, with Arab player Mayar Sherif priced at 4/1 to beat Maria Sakkari.

Sherif has been making progress up the tennis ladder for a while now, and the 24-year-old Egyptian is currently at a career high of No.114. Way back in 2013, she won her only previous meeting with Sakkari.

I’m a fan of the Greek player, but Maria was poor at the Australian Open (1st round), and can get wobbly if her serve and big shots start missing the mark too often.

Ones to Watch

Outright Winner – Each Way

ATP Rotterdam – ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament

  • Felix-Auger-Aliassime is 28/1 with Boylesports, 25/1 Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Betway, 20/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred

WTA Doha – Qatar Total Open

  • Ons Jabeur is 20/1 with Betfred, 18/1 Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 16/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Match Winner

WTA Doha – Qatar Total Open

  • Mayar Sheriff to beat Maria Sakkari is 4/1 (5.0) with William Hill, 19/5 (4.8) Betway, 15/4 (4.75) BetVictor, 7/2 (4.5) Bet365

Play starts from 7am Monday in Doha, and 12 noon in Rotterdam (UK time). Bookmakers take down their Outright markets during the day’s play.

Throughout the week, I’ll be keeping a keen eye out for appealing prices – and I’ll keep you posted when I spot them.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch