Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021

Potential upset tonight at 5/1…

Tuesday 23rd February 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Adelaide…
  • Mertens v Sevastova tonight…
  • 5/1 for the surprise…

We’ve bagged a couple of underdog wins already this season. Katie Boulter beating Coco Gauff at 5/1 was one. Let’s look for another…

Potential upset tonight at 5/1…

The tour’s extended stay Down Under comes to an end this week, with the WTA Adelaide event rounding off the February proceedings in Australia.

Elise Mertens v Anastasija Sevastova

Mertens owes you & me nothing, of course. In the build-up to the Australian Open this month, the Belgian was a 16/1 winner for us at the Gippsland Trophy event in Melbourne.

Since that title win, Mertens has played four Singles matches at the Aussie Open. And also, five Doubles matches – going all the way to the Women’s Double final at last week’s Grand Slam, and lifting the trophy with her teammate, Aryna Sabalenka.

Sabalenka also played at the Gippsland Trophy, and also got to the 4th round in Singles at the main event in Melbourne. Unlike Mertens, though, the Belarusian has decided not to enter this week’s tournament.

In-form or not, some level of burnout or drop-off in performance level is bound to show up in Mertens’ play sooner or later. You could argue that moment came in the 2-0 defeat to Karolina Muchova at the Aussie Open last week. But today’s Adelaide opponent is a tricky one, and odds of 5/1 for the upset tonight just look too big, in the circumstances…

Sevastova had been dreadfully out of form before this week. But the Latvian will have gained some confidence from a straight-sets, 6-2, 6-4 win over the equally out of form Carolina Garcia in the 1st round here.

Anastasija is a tricky player; one of those that we talk about for their sparkling slices and dropshots, as well as for the occasional tantrum.

Crucially for this bet, Sevastova has a 2-0 head-to-head record v Mertens. She’s the kind of awkward opponent that can get into a player’s head.

I like 5/1+ for the match win. And, as a kind of saver bet for that, if you will, Sevastova with a +5.5 games head-start on the Handicap, at Evens or better.

Ones to Watch:

WTA Adelaide

Match Winner

  • Anastasija Sevastova to beat Elise Mertens is 11/2 (6.5) with Boylesports, 5/1 (6.0) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet

Games Handicap

  • Sevastova +5.5 Games Handicap is 11/10 (2.1) with Boylesports, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Evens (2.0) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Marathonbet, 888 Sport, Unibet

The match is scheduled for 12.30am UK time. If you’re up, you can watch it on Amazon Prime Video, or on bookie websites.

You can catch up on our four Outright Winner picks for this week’s tournaments here. As I write, 18/1 Sebastian Korda and 33/1 Maxime Cressy have won their 1st round matches in Montpellier and Singapore, respectively.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch