Tennis Betting Advice - February 2023
ATP Marseille - Ones to Watch at 50/1 and 30/1...
Monday 20th February 2023
Good morning. We’re back into action with five tournaments taking place this week…
We’ve been here before…
Last February we just missed out on a 33/1 winner at WTA Monterrey, with our friend Maria Camila Osorio Serrano having five match points in the final. We had to settle for a half-the-odds Each Way payout there…
And it was the same story for us at ATP Dallas last time out this month, with our 14/1 or 12/1 Each Way pick John Isner squeezed out in a brutal final-set tiebreak, having had four match points himself.
That Dallas final was settled by the tightest score-line possible in three-set tennis: China’s Yibing Wu prevailed 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 - with the 23-year-old winning the first ATP title of his career.
We’ve also been here before in terms of one of our Ones to Watch players going on to lift a trophy the very next week after we backed them…
Anastasia Potapova got to the WTA Lyon quarter finals for us at the start of the month, when backed as an 18/1 shot… the 21-year-old Russian then went the whole way in her next tournament, winning the WTA Linz title, at similar prices. Potapova is now up to a career-high no.29 in the world rankings.
Along with a semi-final withdrawal from 12/1 shot Veronika Kudermetova in Adelaide last month, it’s fair to say we’re knocking on the door with our Outright Winner picks… and that usually means we’re not far off finding a big winner.
Here are my first selections for this week…
Ones to Watch in Marseille…
The men’s indoor hard-court event in France gets underway with the 1st round matches starting from 3pm today, before a full schedule on Tuesday.
ATP Marseille has seen some top-quality names on the trophy in recent years. With Top 10 players such as Andrey Rublev, Daniil Medvedev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas (twice) all collecting the silverware here. Along with a couple of runner-up appearances from Felix Auger-Aliassime.
However, none of those guys have made the trip to France this week. Medvedev, Rublev, and Auger-Aliassime are the three favourites in the betting for ATP Doha, all at single-figure quotes. While Tsitsipas isn’t in action this week.
World no.12 Jannik Sinner goes off as the 7/4 (2.75) favourite here in Marseille. I’m a big fan of the young Italian, as long-time readers will know. He’s yet to make the big-time in a Grand Slam, but regularly challenges for trophies on the weekly ATP Tour…
Sinner has made back-to-back finals indoors this month, winning ATP Montpellier, before losing in the Rotterdam final to Medvedev last week. I wouldn’t put it past the 21-year-old making it three in a row here, but I don’t like the short price.
And with all that tennis in his legs, Jannik has been known to suffer a few injury problems in the past. Indeed, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he was to pull out at some stage here, with the two big ATP 1000 events in Indian Wells & Miami coming up next month. Perhaps that’s why some firms don’t have their Marseille Outright prices up as I write.
I much prefer to roll the dice at bigger odds, and back these three underdogs instead…
The names I like as Each Way outsider picks for the ATP Marseille ‘Open 13 Provence’ tournament this week are:
Marc-Andrea Huesler @ 50/1 Betfred
The 26-year-old Swiss ‘late bloomer’ was a 28/1 pick for us indoors at Montpellier a couple of weeks back. His sole ATP title to date came on indoor hard courts, at Sofia last season. The big-serving lefty has plenty of quality, and if he springs back into form this week, then odds 28/1+ are going to look great value.
Maxime Cressy @ 16/1 BetVictor
Another player we’ve backed before (a 40/1 runner-up on grass at Eastbourne last summer - pipped 7-6 in the final set), serve & volley specialist Cressy won his first ATP title last year. The 25-year-old American is looking to build on his 2022 breakthrough, closing in on a Top 30 ranking. He made the final indoors at Montpellier earlier this month, and has the game and weapons to do well again here, under a roof in France.
Arthur Fils @ 30/1 BetVictor
Granted a Wildcard this week and making his debut in the ATP Marseille draw, 18-year-old Arthur Fils has the feeling of a ‘wildcard’ bet, too - an exciting young player who could be about to make a splash on the tour. The teenager has started 2023 like a train, reaching back-to-back finals on the lower-tier ATP Challenger Tour, both indoors. Including at Quimper in France. And then impressing at Montpellier, making his first semi final (and quarter final) at full ATP Tour level - only beaten by Sinner, who he could face again this week. One to watch, for sure.
Ones to Watch picks:
ATP Marseille - Open 13 Provence
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
The opening day’s play in Marseille gets underway from 3pm, UK time. Bookies take down their Outright Winner markets during the matches. (If you miss these picks today, look again tonight or Tuesday morning.)
I’ll be back throughout the week with more picks and analysis for you.
If you want to get in touch, email me at: email@example.com
Enjoy the tennis…