Tennis Betting Advice - February 2023
Go 'Over' again in Mexico - and a note on spread betting...
Wednesday 22nd February 2023
We lost Camila Osorio from this week’s Outright book last night. But as anticipated, the feisty young Colombian was involved in another long scrap…
The favourite, Magda Linette, came from behind to beat our player, 6-7, 7-5, 6-2, in a two-hour, 42-minute battle at WTA Merida.
Osorio had a 5-2 lead in the second set, and even had match point. Players losing from match point up has been a bit of a theme in my recent emails. If it’s down to ‘luck’ - then it will turn again for us, soon enough…
That match comfortably busted the Over 20.5 Games line last night (Total Games result = 33).
A note on spread betting…
We’re now three out of three for ‘Over’ bets in the Total Games market this season. Nothing to get the bank overflowing, but a good niche for us regardless.
And the results of these got me thinking that you may sometimes wish to look at the spread betting options - if that happens to be your cup of tea…
The disclaimer with spread betting is that, unlike standard fixed odds betting, you can stand to lose more than your original stake. So keep that in mind.
The upside is that when you’re right with a spread bet, you get rewarded, the ‘more right’ you are. For example:
Yesterday’s fixed odds pick was for Over 20.5 Games. The result was 33 games. If you’d made a ‘Buy’ (bet high) with a spread betting firm at a line of say, 22 games, then you’d have won your nominated stake multiplied by the difference. Which in that case would be 33 games minus 22 games, for a profit of 11 x your stake.
And from our other two Total Games bets so far this season:
Over 21.5 Games, result = 25
Over 21.5 Games, result = 30
Both of those would also have generated a healthy return in the spread markets.
Of course, it’s all well and good when the outcome goes your way with those. But again - remember - if the result swings the other way, things could get ugly…
The minimum Total Games result in a fully completed best-of-three sets match is 12 games (a 6-0, 6-0 scoreline). So, in the example above, a spread-bet Buy at 22 games for a result of 12 games would mean a loss of 10 x your stake.
McNally v Volynets tonight…
I’ve got another Total Games target for us in Mexico this evening.
The match in question is the all-American affair between two upcoming 21-year-olds, born just a month apart, Caty McNally v Katie Volynets…
This is the world no.92 v the world no.96. And I expect it to be as close a contest as those rankings suggest.
These two have met once before on the WTA Tour. That encounter just so happened to come at an outdoor hard-court event in Mexico (Guadalajara, 2021). They meet in similar circumstances here at WTA Merida this evening.
That previous clash ended with a three-set win for McNally, 6-0, 3-6, 6-4. Caty goes off as the bookies’ favourite today, but I really think it’s hard to call. That may well mean there’s some value in Volynets’ 13/8 (2.63) Match Winner price. I’m sticking with the ‘long match’ angle though, and going in once again in the Total Games market…
Both women played out three-set matches in the 1st round this week. With Total Games tallies of 33 (McNally) and 25 (Volynets)
5 of Volynets’ last 7 matches have gone to the full three sets. With Total Games results of: 25, 17, 26, 17, 27, 30, 27
Over 20.5 Games is the recommended bet today, available with a few bookies as listed below.
Alternatively, as with yesterday, the slightly higher Over 21.5 option is available with several firms at around 5/6 (1.83), including Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. You can get a best-price Evens (2.0) with Unibet. William Hill and BetVictor also have the Over 21.5 line.
And on that spread betting note discussed above, SportingIndex ask you to Buy (bet high) at 22.75 Total Games for McNally v Volynets. SpreadEx have their Buy line set at 23 games.
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Ones to Watch picks:
WTA Merida - Merida Open Akron
Caty McNally v Katie Volynets
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McNally v Volynets is scheduled for 10.30pm, UK time.
You can watch the match live on Amazon Prime Video. Or on live streaming with selected bookies, including Bet365.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Drop me a line at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson