Tennis Betting Advice - February 2024

Update: 14/1 and 25/1 at Betfred...

Tuesday 6th February 2024

UPDATE:

Since this morning's email (below) went out - Betfred have gone up with standout Each Way prices for our two ATP Dallas picks: 

14/1 for Chris Eubanks

25/1 for Max Purcell

The Betfred website states that the market closes at 6.10pm. You can go straight there by clicking here. Thanks.

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We’re off to Dallas this evening, where play starts from 6pm UK time…

Aces high…

The Dallas Open is an indoor hard-court event - and these courts play fast

Last year, we had the runner-up here, in the shape of big John Isner. The now-retired serving monster had match points to land us the prize, but just missed out.

The scores in the previous two Dallas finals paint a good picture of what to look out for in these playing conditions: serve-dominated contests. Last year’s final ended 6-7, 7-6, 7-6. And the year before, another tiebreak-heavy war of attrition, 7-6, 7-6.

Three of those four finalists were Americans.  Including 6’10” Isner, and 2022 winner, the 6’11” Reilly Opelka.

American picks…

I’ve got a match treble for us today. Three all-American contests, with odds of 5/2 (3.5) for my opinion on who’s going to come out on top:

Alex Michelsen to beat Tennys Sandrgen
Chris Eubanks to beat Steve Johnson
Michael Mmoh to beat Emilio Nava

In the case of Michelsen and Eubanks, we’re siding with players who are still on the up in their careers. While Mmoh is capable of playing at a high level when his game clicks, and has superior muscle-power to Nava - which should work in his favour on these courts.

We could be in for some close-run scoreboards, though. Of those three matches, the best price for a Tiebreak in the Match is in the Michelsen-Sandgren encounter first up. And I’m actually surprised the bookies haven’t gone shorter than Even Money (2.0) here.

Serve & volley specialists - at 10/1 and 20/1…

In terms of the Outright Winner market, this ATP 250 event does feature a couple of American star names. Namely our Ones to Watch friend Ben Shelton, installed alongside Tommy Paul as the 9/2 (5.5) joint-favourite for the trophy. The stars & stripes keep on coming, with Frances Tiafoe next on the list at 5/1 (6.0).

For bigger prices, I’m more drawn to Chris Eubanks as a 10/1 shot to represent our USA picks. And at 20/1, a man already through to the 2nd round AKA the Last 16 - and another big server - Max Purcell

Aussie Max likes to serve & volley, as does Eubanks. And coming into the net on the back of your serve is a tactic I can see paying dividends on these fast Dallas indoor courts. Keeping the points short with some two-strike tennis.

If those game-plans get executed well, then 6’7” Eubanks and 6’1” Purcell could end up facing off for a serve & volley battle in the semi finals later this week.

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Ones to Watch picks:

ATP Dallas - Dallas Open

Three matches tonight, as listed above:

  • TREBLE. Match Winners: Michelson, Eubanks, Mmoh @ 13/5 (3.6) BetVictor, 5/2 (3.5) Bet365, 12/5 (3.4) William Hill, Betway, 9/4 (3.25) Boylesports, 11/5 (3.2) Skybet 

Tennys Sandgren v Alex Michelson:

  • Tiebreak in the Match: Yes @ 13/10 (2.3) Unibet (called Over 0.5 Tiebreaks), BetUK, BetMGM, Evens (2.0) William Hill, Betway, Bet365 (Over 0.5 Tiebreaks)

Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Chris Eubanks @ 11/1 LiveScoreBet, 10/1 Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, Betway, Boylesports 

  • Max Purcell @ 22/1 Betway, 20/1 Bet365, William Hill, 888 Sport, Boylesports, LiveScoreBet

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Play starts from 6pm UK time.

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch