Tennis Betting Advice - February 2024
Buenos Aires today - follow the form at 33/1...
Thursday 15th February 2024
Form and momentum are funny things…
Hard to put your finger on…
But sometimes, it can pay to keep it really simple:
Follow the guy in form…
One to Watch in Buenos Aires…
The player I’m thinking of today is Luciano Darderi. A 22-year-old Italian who’s having one of those seemingly out-of-the-blue breakthrough moments on the ATP Tour…
Last week, young Darderi - still very much a newcomer at full-level weekly ATP events - blasted through the Cordoba draw in Argentina. Winning his first title. With a seven-match burst of match victories, coming through the qualifying rounds, then going all the way.
Having seen how he performed and carried himself during and after his maiden ATP trophy win, I’d say that result was no flash in the pan.
Darderi has stayed put in Argentina this week, moving on from Cordoba to Buenos Aires. Where he’s so far backed-up last week’s big run, posting yet another clay-court victory - with a resounding 6-2, 6-1 win in the 1st round.
The new world no.76 plays again tonight. And interestingly, he takes on one of the higher-ranked and better-known players that he beat last week in Cordoba. Coming up against Argentina’s world no.30 Sebastian Baez, for the second time in just five days.
Darderi came out on top in three sets in their semi-final clash the other day. And at odds-against prices, I feel there’s value in siding with the new, young, in-form player tonight…
Luciano can be backed as the odds-against underdog to beat Baez. That match is scheduled for around 11pm, UK time.
And in the ATP Buenos Aires tournament Outright Winner market, there’s also a bit of intrigue for me…
Each Way alert at 33/1…
With bookies presenting a difference of opinion over the young Italian’s chances - some going 33/1, while others are half those odds, at just 16/1…
A price gap like that often alerts us to a livewire underdog situation…
With world no.2 Carlos Alcaraz in the field, the Each Way terms are 1/3 odds for reaching the final - as opposed to the standard 1/2 odds. On the positive, though, Darderi is in the opposite half of the draw to the top seed, meaning they can’t meet until the championship match.
And with the young Italian riding a wave of momentum and confidence right now, winning 8 matches in a row, and 9 out of 10 on clay so far this season. Darderi gets the ‘ones to watch’ nod from me today.
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Ones to Watch picks:
ATP Buenos Aires - IEB+ Argentina Open
Match Winner:
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/3 odds 1-2 places):
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Note: most bookies will take down their Outright Winner market at 4.30pm, UK time - when today’s play starts in Buenos Aires.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone