Tennis Betting Advice - February 2025
Ones to Watch this week at 12/1 and 16/1...
Monday 24th February 2025
One of the busiest weeks of the season on the tours this week - with five tournaments taking place: in Dubai, Santiago, Austin, Acapulco, and Merida…
Last week’s Ones to Watch picks didn’t go deep for us. Although maybe that’s not as bad as it sounds; the players who beat our two men both went on to contest the final in Rio.
This week, we have five tournaments on the schedule. ATP Dubai got underway this morning. The rest kick-off from 5pm or later, UK time:
ATP Santiago, Chile - clay court
ATP Acapulco, Mexico - hard
WTA Merida, Mexico - hard
WTA Austin, USA - hard
We’ll start with the men…
HOLGER RUNE at 11/1 or 10/1 is my ‘form is temporary, class is permanent’ pick for Acapulco…
The 21-year-old Dane got a big write-up in my pre-season Ones to Watch in 2024 Report. And while he’s stalled a bit, with injury and illness in the mix, as well as a bit of a coaching-team merry-go-round. The talent remains. As does the clutch, match-play mentality, with Holger frequently one to watch out for in-play when it comes to pulling off scoreboard comebacks, and saving break points/ match points.
Here in Acapulco, Rune has reached the semi finals on each of his two previous visits. And I’d say that’s not a coincidence; Holger is very good on courts like this: a hard court that doesn’t play super-fast, with a bounce to work with…
For example, we were on Rune as a youngster when he won the Rolex Paris Masters in 2022. And he made the semis on those courts last year, too.
Over in Santiago on the clay, it’s tempting to play the same card with regards to Alejandro Tabilo at 10/1. The Canadian-born Chilean has reached the final and semi final on two of his last three entries here. Last season, he won his first two ATP titles - albeit on grass and hard courts. However, the 27-year-old has started 2025 poorly, losing five matches in a row. And he’s fallen at the first hurdle in each of his last five clay-court events, going back to last year’s French Open.
For slightly bigger prices, with similar Santiago history - and much more encouraging new-year form. We’ll instead take another 27-year-old, PEDRO MARTINEZ…
After a semi-final run in Buenos Aires during the current ‘Golden Swing’ of clay-court competition, the Spaniard is up to a new career-high of no.36 in the world. Here in Santiago, Pedro won the title in 2022 - and reached the semis again last season. He’s 16/1 with Betfred, with plenty of 14/1 elsewhere.
On the women’s tour this week…
A couple of big-name stories from Austin…
Our dream-ticket Australian Open winner Madison Keys was originally going to play here, but WTA 250 events limit the number of Top 10 players that can enter the draw… and since winning her maiden Major last month, Maddie at a new no.5 is now too-highly ranked to compete here (!). World no.4 Jessica Pegula was already in the field, and she’s a very short 7/4 (2.75) to win here in her debut appearance at the ATX Open.
One former Grand Slam winner who will be in action in Austin this week however, is Petra Kvitova. The two-time Wimbledon champ is the latest new-mum to make her return to the WTA Tour. The big-hitting Czech left-hander - now age 34 - hasn’t played a competitive match since October 2023. The bookies have Petra as a 25/1 shot to make it a dream comeback.
I’m keen on a young American here. PEYTON STEARNS is a fierce competitor, loves taking on higher-ranked opponents, and has shown plenty of glimpses of promise. After beating two Grand Slam finalists at the big WTA 1000 event in Dubai last week, Qinwen Zheng and Ons Jabeur - and only stopped by eventual history-making 17-year-old title-winner Mirra Andreeva. Stearns is up to her highest ranking yet (no.43). The 23-year-old former college champ is one to watch.
Looking at the draw and the Outright Winner market, odds of 12/1 Each Way are decent enough seeing as Peyton avoids star name Pegula until the final.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
ATP Acapulco - Abierto Mexicana Telcel:
ATP Santiago - Movistar Chile Open:
WTA Austin - ATX Open:
Bookies will take down Outright markets during play. Santiago starts at 5pm today, UK time. Followed by Austin and Acapulco later this evening.
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone