Tennis Betting Advice - January 2019

Australian Open: Bets of the Day – 3/1 is too big…

Tuesday 15th January 2019

Australian Open - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Day Three – play starts at Midnight…
  • Bertens means business…
  • 3/1 is too big…

2nd Round starts tonight...

All four of our Outright Winner picks are safely through to the 2nd Round. Elise Mertens and Borna Coric won 2-0 and 3-0 respectively last night, joining Aryna Sabalenka and Karen Khachanov who went through on Day One.
As it stands we have a player going for us in each half of both the Men’s and Women’s draws. I’m monitoring a couple of other outsiders at big prices, too. We may move again in the next round.

Yesterday we had our first match bets of the tournament. Pierre-Hugues Herbert took advantage of a lacklustre showing from Sam Querrey, coming through for us 5-7, 7-6, 6-3, 6-1 at odds-against prices of 13/8 (2.63) or 6/4 (2.50).

Cynics might suggest Querrey was only in Melbourne to collect his appearance money. It certainly looked that way in the final set, as he let many shots fly past him way too easily. I’m not complaining though. Herbert did a professional job, wanted the win more – and he got it.

Ajla Tomljanovic came about as close as you get to winning without having match point. Her three-hour epic – played in brutal midday heat – went right to the wire. The favourite Johanna Konta eventually squeezed our underdog pick out 7-6, 2-6, 7-6 in a final set ‘champions’ tiebreak (first to 10 points in the final set tiebreak now – new rule introduced for the Australian Open 2019). Tomljanovic actually won more games and more points in the match than Konta – it was that close.

Elsewhere, talking of tiebreaks, the 6’11” Ivo Karlovic bludgeoned his way past Hubert Hurkacz 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 – serving up 39 Aces on the way. In the other ‘Men’s big servers’ match that we discussed yesterday, Milos Raonic needed just the one tiebreak in his straight sets win over the ever-enigmatic Nick Kyrgios.

Bertens means business…

Moving on to tonight’s picks now. Day Three kicks off at Midnight UK time, and one of the first Women’s 2nd Round matches on the schedule is the in-form Kiki Bertens against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Bertens really stepped things up in 2018, winning the big ‘Premier 5’ title at WTA Cincinnati as an 80/1 outsider, beating World No.1 Simona Halep in the final. And in doing so proving herself a real threat on hard courts, having previously been somewhat pigeonholed as a clay-court specialist.

The 27-year-old Dutchwoman is coming good at an age that means she still has a couple of years on a few of the bigger names alongside her in the Top 10, while also having enough experience on her side to deal with tricky encounters and lower-ranked opponents.

Pavlyuchenkova is a hit-and-miss kind of player and prone to throwing in the odd stinker of a missed shot or even ‘go missing’ on the scoreboard for pretty much a whole set. She can also churn out the Double Faults.

Bertens is the steadier and more confident of the two right now. With a run to the WTA Sydney semi finals under her belt last week. And a convincing 6-3, 6-3 win over the dangerous Alison Riske in the 1st Round here, where Bertens served brilliantly – winning 80% of 1st Serve Points and saving the only break point that she gave away all match.

With form and a flowing game going for her, Bertens can get the job done in straight sets here. Bertens is 1/3 (1.33) to win the match, and 8/13 (1.62) to beat a -3.5 Games Handicap – something she’s done in eight of her last nine match victories. At 20/23 (1.87), the Set Betting 2-0 option is the bet for me.

3/1 is too big…

Back on the underdog hunt, and odds of 3/1 (4.00) look too big for Sachia Vickery to take out fellow American, Danielle Rose Collins…

Both women came close to landing big payouts for us last year, with Collins a 33/1 Ones to Watch pick for WTA San Jose and Vickery 25/1 in Monterrey – and both just missing out in the semi finals.

Collins scored one of the shocks of the 1st Round this week by taking out the in-form World No.13 Julia Goerges in three sets. However, the German was only two points from winning that match by two sets to nil, and if Collins were to lose tonight it would certainly not be the first time a player has suffered a let-down after claiming a Top 20 scalp.

These two know each other well with several meetings on the North American hard court circuit in their formative years on the tour. The career head-to-head is actually 4-1 to Vickery.

Two years older than Vickery, Collins is well ahead of her rival American in the world rankings – No.35 v No.123. But the difference in match-day performance isn’t as great as those ladder numbers might suggest, and odds of just 2/7 (1.29) for Collins as favourite tonight look very short to me. Vickery is the value.

Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:

Women’s – Set Betting:

BET: Kiki Bertens to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 2-0 @ 20/23
BOOKIES: 20/23 (1.87) 888 Sport, Unibet, NetBet, 10Bet, 5/6 (1.83) William Hill, Ladbrokes, Skybet, 4/5 (1.80) general

Latest odds here >>

Women’s – Match Winner:

BET: Sachia Vickery to beat Danielle Collins @ 3/1
BOOKIES: 3/1 (4.00) Bet365, 57/20 (3.85) NetBet, 10Bet, 11/4 (3.75) Betway

Latest odds here >>

I’ll be back by 9pm tomorrow with your Bets of the Day email for Day Four.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch