Tennis Betting Advice - January 2019

Australian Open: Three underdogs for tonight…

Saturday 19th January 2019

Australian Open - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Day Seven – play starts at Midnight…
  • Tiafoe at 2/1…
  • Sharapova and Anisimova…

Cranking up the pressure…

Madison Keys is a hard player to catch right. In 2017 we backed her for the US Open and she got to the final. But since then Keys has been pretty much as erratic as she ever was. Last night she played maybe the best I’ve ever seen her, sweeping aside our 100/1 Women’s outsider Elise Mertens, 2-0.

With a new coach in her box this year, it will be interesting to see if they’ve worked on Madison’s nerves. We’ll find out soon, as the Australian Open is about to enter Week Two – and that’s when things get serious.

Our 50/1 Men’s outsider pick Borna Coric passed his test last night, coming from a set down to beat Filip Krajinovic, 3-1.

Coric will meet Lucas Pouille for a place in the quarter finals, and right now that looks a good match-up on paper. The head-to-head is 2 wins to nil for our man. And Pouille was the last player left on court on Day Six, eventually coming through a 3rd Round encounter that went the distance, 3-2 – so the Frenchman’s energy levels might be a little low.

Opportunity knocks…

Ticket holders for the Rod Laver Arena are in for a treat on Day Seven…

The day session starts with 17-year-old 150/1 One to Watch Amanda Anisimova taking on two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova (Midnight, UK time). Followed by Australian hope Ashleigh Barty v career Grand Slam champ Maria Sharapova.

After those two Women’s matches, the Men take centre stage. Our 66/1 outsider pick Tomas Berdych faces World No.2 Rafael Nadal. Before the night session kicks off with our One to Watch in 2019 youngster Stefanos Tsitsipas taking on reigning Aussie Open king Roger Federer.

We could see some great matches over the course of tonight and Sunday morning. Anisimova, Berdych and Tsitsipas are all capable of grabbing the headlines.

In the match markets, three opportunities stand out for me…

Three underdog picks for tonight…

Three of the five men on our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2019 list are still in the hunt for the first Grand Slam title of the year. I’ve hardly seen Daniil Medvedev’s name mentioned all week, but the young Russian has cruised through the first three rounds without dropping a set – and he’s looking good. We’ve been hearing a lot more about the swashbuckling Tsitsipas, and his army of Greek fans have been making their presence felt at Melbourne Park, too.

The third man is Frances Tiafoe. He beat the much-fancied Kevin Anderson in the 2nd Round and followed it up with a thrilling 3-2 win over the in-form Italian veteran, Andreas Seppi. This video shows the kind of passion that’s carrying ‘Big Foe’ through what’s shaping up to be a career-defining first big run at a Grand Slam.

For Medvedev and Tsitsipas, their next assignments are two of the toughest you could possibly have – facing off against World No.1 Novak Djokovic and Australian Open back-to-back title holder Roger Federer, respectively.

However, for Tiafoe the task looks a lot more manageable...

After winning the ATP Tour Finals at the end of 2017, Grigor Dimitrov hit a top ranking of No.3 in the world. The talented but not fully reliable Bulgarian failed to kick on in 2018 though, and currently sits further back at No.21. A big plus for Grigor this year is that he now has tennis legend Andre Agassi in his corner. However, as with Madison Keys, it remains to be seen if the mental side of the game has been brushed up just yet.

Dimitrov has had a soft run through the opening rounds. He hasn’t played anyone to give him a real test yet. Tiafoe is dialled-in to big-time match-play mode already, and you won’t see a player all fortnight more ‘up for it’ than the young American here. I like Tiafoe as the 2/1 (3.00) match outsider.

Talking of young Americans, teenager Amanda Anisimova is in the spotlight tonight, first up on the main court. So far all the signs have been that she’s pretty unflappable, and more hungry-to-win than she is nervous about the whole situation (last night, 18-year-old Dayana Yastremska finished in tears after suffering a near-whitewash at the hands of Serena Williams).

Anisimova looks to be made of sterner stuff. I expect her to come out firing here. Petra Kvitova is one of the very best coming-from-behind-to-win players in the sport. Already this month the Czech has fought back on two occasions to win a match after losing the opening set.

If the shock is on – and it really could be – then it will likely require Anisimova to make a fast start and win the first set. Odds of 6/5+ (2.20+) for that outcome are only a few ticks off the top Match Winner price of 7/5 (2.40). First Set Winner – Anisimova is the bet for me.

The third underdog I like tonight is Maria Sharapova at 11/10 (2.10) to beat Australian No.1, Ashleigh Barty. Sharapova is also up there as one of the best ‘find a way to win’ players on the tour, and Maria is looking back to something like her old best here this week. She knocked out the reigning champ Caroline Woznaicki in the last round.

Barty has had the trainer on a few times. The young Aussie will need another top day on serve (she’s joint-1st for Aces in the tournament so far), as well as having her wide array of groundstrokes in fine working order. Sharapova is an intimidating force, she’s won on this stage many times before and also beat Barty in their one previous meeting. This is a big match. I like Maria as the underdog.

Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:

Match Winner:

BET: Frances Tiafoe to beat Grigor Dimitrov @ 2/1
BOOKIES: 2/1 (3.00) Bet365, 19/10 (2.90) William Hill

Latest odds here >>

Petra Kvitova v Amanda Anisimova:

BET: First Set Winner – Anisimova @ 13/10
BOOKIES: 13/10 (2.30) Boylesports, 5/4 (2.25) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 6/5 (2.20) in general

Latest odds here >>

Match Winner:

BET: Maria Sharapova to beat Ashleigh Barty @ 11/10
BOOKIES: 11/10 (2.10) Bet365, Betway, William Hill, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet, BetVictor

Latest odds here >>

I’ll be back by 9pm tomorrow with your Bets of the Day email for Day Eight.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch