Tennis Betting Advice - January 2019
Australian Open: The American Dream at 25/1…
Monday 21st January 2019
Australian Open - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Milos Raonic played his ‘quiet man’ role to perfection yesterday…
The no-drama Canadian kept his head and played brilliantly to beat 21-year-old perennial Next Big Thing, Alexander Zverev. And Milos did it in straight sets, 6-1, 6-1, 7-6.
Ignoring the theatrics on the other side of the net – just as he did when beating Nick Kyrgios 3-0 in the 1st Round – Raonic put in another very professional and impressive performance.
As expected, the media & commentators were more interested with Zverev throughout – especially when the young German smashed his racket to smithereens.
Rather than jump on the social media ‘Tennis racket DESTROYED!!!’ clip-fest, I’ll share with you Raonic’s post-match interview instead. He seems a good guy. You can watch it here.
We won’t get the perfect quarter final we were hoping for, as 50/1 shot Borna Coric went down 3-1 to Lucas Pouille. On the match front, 6/1 underdog Daniil Medvedev gave a very good account of himself in a gruelling contest with Novak Djokovic, but the World No.1 proved too good for now with a 3-1 win.
Raonic’s Outright Winner price has been chopped in half, from 25/1 last night to 12/1 at best today. Our man will face Pouille in the quarters.
The quarter finals start tonight. In the Men’s, Frances Tiafoe is last on the Rod Laver Arena schedule – taking on Rafael Nadal under the lights in the biggest match of his life. The young American is a top price 14/1 to pull off the result of the tournament.
Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on Roberto Bautista-Agut. This should be close. I wouldn’t be surprised if it went the full distance to five sets…
So far, all four of Tsitsipas’ matches have been won 3-1, including an epic win over Roger Federer in the last round. And Bautista-Agut, who is on a nine-match winning streak in 2019, has won 3-2 in three of his four matches en route to the quarter finals.
Bautista-Agut’s win over Marin Cilic had 50 Total Games. His five-set battle v Andy Murray saw 54 games. And his 2nd Round win over John Millman had 48. The Spaniard is a real battler, and is playing the best tennis of his career. He’ll be up for another scrap in this one.
New Greek superstar Tsitsipas has been involved in a run of long matches, too. There were 51 games and three tiebreak (7-6) sets in his big win over Federer. Bets on Over 40.5 Games have paid out in three out of four Tsitsipas matches.
This could be a real slugfest. Both men will leave it all on the court. The Total Games market is the place to be, and Over 40.5 is the bet.
The headline Day Nine match in the Women’s quarter finals is World No.6 Petra Kvitova v Australia’s new golden girl Ashleigh Barty. This could go right to the wire, too…
Kvitova is on a nine-match winning streak. Barty has won eight out of nine matches on tour this month – and the only defeat came against Kvitova, in the WTA Sydney final. That match went the distance to three sets (28 Total Games). And their previous encounter in 2017 also went to three sets, with 27 games on the scoreboard.
The Czech player is the match favourite. Kvitova has been to many Grand Slam quarter finals before. This is Barty’s debut at this level. The 22-year-old Australian showed her fighting qualities in the last round, coming back from a set down to beat Maria Sharapova 2-1 (Total Games = 27).
The Total Games – Over 21.5 line appeals here.
The American Dream @ 25/1…
With the quarter finals about to start we’re going in to Week Two with one final Women’s Outright Winner pick…
The top half of the draw is loaded up with big names. Serena Williams is the overall favourite, now 6/4 (2.50) after beating Simona Halep. The other three are all Top 10 names. Serena will play Karolina Pliskova (12/1) on Wednesday. Naomi Osaka is 11/2 (6.50) for the title, and she will play Elina Svitolina (10/1).
The bottom half is the place to go looking for a value-for-money outsider…
Danielle Collins ticks the box there in a big way. The 25-year-old American burst onto the scene less than 12 months ago, racking up some big results at WTA hard-court events having honed her game (and been national champion) in the highly-competitive US college tennis system.
Collins hadn’t won a Grand Slam match before Melbourne this month, but she’s blazing her way right now. After beating the tough Julia Goerges in the 1st Round, Danielle has ripped past compatriot Sachia Vickey 2-0, then taken out two big seeds in Carolina Garcia and Angelique Kerber. Those two big wins were also in straight sets, including a 6-0, 6-2 blitz v World No.2 Kerber last time out.
The American has a nice bit of outsider quality about her, saying she prefers to be the underdog and have people cheering against her. Collins is feisty, and right now she looks so in the zone and fired up that her go-out-there-and-hit-hard approach may well prove too hot to handle for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova tonight – and whoever’s left standing out of Kvitova and Barty after that.
And Collins isn’t just a ball-belter. She has some real class in her shot execution. Odds of 25/1 catch the eye…
At that price, the 1/3rd odds Each Way terms make it just over 8/1 (9.00) that Collins makes it to the final. She’s Evens (2.00) to beat Pavlyuchenkova tonight. I’d make her 5/2 (3.50) or shorter v Kvitova or Barty in the semis. That rolled over match double would come to 6/1 (7.00) tops. And with 25/1 Outright on-side should the dream run to the final come off, we’d have plenty to work with on the trading front.
From the eight names left in the Women’s draw, 25/1 Collins is the value.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:
Roberto Bautista-Agut v Stefanos Tsitsipas:
BET: Total Games – Over 40.5 Games @ 17/20
BOOKIES: 17/20 (1.85) BetVictor, Betway, Marathonbet, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred
Petra Kvitova v Ashleigh Barty:
BET: Total Games – Over 21.5 Games @ 17/20
BOOKIES: 17/20 (1.85) BetVictor, Unibet, 188Bet, 5/6 (1.83) Betfred, Marathonbet, NetBet, 10Bet
Women’s Outright Winner:
BET: Danielle Collins @ 25/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 25/1 (26.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Boylesports
I’ll be back tomorrow evening with your Bets of the Day email for Day 10.
Enjoy the tennis…