Tennis Betting Advice - January 2019
Australian Open: 14/1 for a Greek classic…
Wednesday 23rd January 2019
Australian Open - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
The man who had no feet…
My grandad was fond of this saying:
I cried because I had no shoes until I met a man who had no feet...
A good few high-rolling Betfair traders would’ve waded in on the 1.01 (1/100) ‘free money’ for Serena Williams at match point last night – and lost…
However rotten I was feeling after 25/1 pick Milos Raonic’s poor performance against Lucas Pouille, those in-play money chasers would’ve been feeling a whole lot worse, that’s for sure.
Tennis can be a crazy game. The scoring system allows for all kinds of mayhem. When you’re not playing against the clock, there’s always time to keep a match alive. You’ve only got to win the next point…
Favourites don’t always win…
First and foremost, Serena was the Australian Open favourite. We don’t back those at Ones to Watch. Not unless there’s a very good reason. We might not get ourselves the big-odds payday at this tournament – but we don’t need to get many 25/1 or 66/1 shots in finals over the course of the year ahead to put us in front in the long run.
Secondly, Serena was 5-1 up in the final set v Karolina Pliskova, and serving for the match at 40-30. She had a further three match points on the Pliskova serve, too. Staking a grand to win a tenner at minimum odds of 1/100 is scary stuff. The ‘1.01 club’ is not for us.
Flip those odds and give me a 100/1 outsider with a fighting chance any day of the week. The Men’s semi final line-up includes Lucas Pouille, who was 200/1 pre-tournament. Players at big, big prices do go deep in the Grand Slams.
Our quest continues – tonight, next week and beyond…
We have one outsider pick left standing at this particular tournament. We got on Danielle Collins at 25/1 before the quarter finals. She’s now 14/1 at best, and 10/1 with some bookies.
The Each Way place terms (1/3 odds in this case) offer us around 8/1 (9.00) on Collins to upset the new tournament favourite, Petra Kvitova. The semi final Match Winner market has Collins as a 10/3 (4.33) chance. Whatever happens – we’ve got the price on our side.
An outsider pick for the Semi Finals…
Three of the four semi finals take place overnight and into the morning. The Women’s line-up is Kvitova v Collins, followed by Naomi Osaka v Pliskova.
The first Men’s semi is scheduled for 8.30am UK time – and this could be a classic…
Stefanos Tsitsipas isn’t in my Outright book here, but having featured as one of five young men on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list at the start of the year, I’ve no doubt that a few shrewd readers are on the 20-year-old Greek at 40/1.
Tsitsipas has already had one massive breakthrough moment here in Melbourne, beating reigning champ Roger Federer as a 9/2 (5.50) match underdog. This guy is the real deal. He’s got another epic task on his hands to reach a first Grand Slam final. World No.2 Rafael Nadal stands between Stefanos and Greek history.
Rafa has been imperious so far, winning every match in straight sets, 3-0. In particular I’ve noticed the Spaniard has been a fast starter – not something he used to be known for. Indeed at Wimbledon a few years back, we repeatedly profited from latching on to that trend at the time by backing Nadal ‘to lose the first set and win.’
Whether or not any underlying fitness issues are behind this new speedy-play Rafa, I don’t know. But he does seem to be whizzing through procedures faster than we’re used to. In three of his five matches Nadal has broken his opponent’s serve in their very first service game. While on his own serve, Rafa hasn’t been broken in any of his last four matches.
In terms of Aces, Tsitsipas is the top server left in the tournament with 89 hit so far. The youngster didn’t lost his serve at all v Federer, although he did have to save 12 break points – including two in his opening service game…
All five Tsitsipas matches have been won 3-1 so far. Over 34.5 Games bets have paid out on all five occasions. In his short career to date, only 4 of Tsitsipas’ 14 Grand Slam matches have been settled in straight sets. Here at Melbourne 2019, his five matches have seen seven tiebreak (7-6) sets. And there was a 7-6 set when Rafa beat him in the Toronto Masters final last summer.
The play for me is Over 34.5 Games. Alongside a more speculative 14/1 for Tsitsipas ‘to lose the first set and win’…
The Greek prodigy is around 4/1 (5.00) for the match. If he’s going to pull off the result of the tournament, I want to get Tsitsipas at the absolute biggest price possible…
All the talk in the commentary box will be about how important winning the first set is in a match like this. And normally I would agree. But this youngster will believe he can win until the very end. As relative newcomers, unlike most of the locker-room, these new young players don’t have years of defeats to Federer, Nadal & Djokovic wearing them down. Tsitsipas can ride out any early nerves and an out-the-blocks assault from Rafa.
At double-figure odds, this option is my outsider pick for a semi final shock…
We have to shop around a bit for the best price here, as Oddschecker isn’t showing the full range of bookies with this market. Skybet are the top price 14/1, and the bet can be found in their RequestABet Specials section. View the page for the match here.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Rafael Nadal:
BET: Total Games – Over 34.5 Games @ 9/10
BOOKIES: 9/10 (1.90) Marathonbet, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365, 4/5 (1.80) Betway, NetBet, 10Bet
BET: To Lose 1st Set and Win the Match – Tsitsipas @ 14/1
BOOKIES: 14/1 (15.00) Skybet, Bet365 (Player to Win From Behind), 12/1 (13.00) BetVictor, 11/1 (12.00) Marathonbet
I’ll be back tomorrow evening with your Bets of the Day email for Day 12.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson