Tennis Betting Advice - January 2019
Tournament update – back Yastremska at 4/1…
Thursday 31st January 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
After the late nights and bright lights of the Australian Open, I’m quite enjoying this week’s two smaller-scale WTA tournaments in Thailand and Russia.
As usual, the week on tour is full of ups and downs, oddball results and quirks in the draws…
On Sunday night we had four picks. With Friday’s quarter final schedules in place, we have two still standing:
In St Petersburg, Julia Goerges (10/1) was looking good in the 2nd Round until her form inexplicably dropped away when leading her match 6-4, 3-1.
Our 4/1 (5.00) Outright pick Aryna Sabalenka looked very strong in her opening match though, winning 6-1, 6-4. The new World No.10 is into the quarter finals where she is a 3/10 (1.30) favourite to beat Russian World No.78 Ekaterina Alexandrova. Sabalenka is now 11/4 (3.75) to win her second title of the year.
In Hua Hin, our Thai outsider Luksika Kumkhum (33/1) gave a pretty poor account of herself, soundly beaten in straight sets in the 1st Round, 6-2, 6-1. It’s a shame she couldn’t hang in that match better, as her opponent Shuai Zhang was tired after a busy Australian Open (won the Women’s Doubles). Zhang promptly retired after playing just five games in her 2nd Round match this week.
Our 14/1 or 12/1 pick Ajla Tomljanovic has fared much better, winning through the first two rounds in Thailand without dropping a set. It’s been close though, with the big-hitting Australian saving set points in the 1st Round and then fighting back from 2-5 down in the first set in the 2nd Round. Overall though Tomljanovic has been playing well. A few too many Double Faults have been the only real problem. With the ball in play, her shot-making has been good. Ajla is an 8/15 (1.53) favourite to beat Saisai Zheng in the quarter finals, and down to 4/1 (5.00) to go all the way and take the title.
Yastremska at 4/1…
Tomljanovic is in the bottom half of the WTA Hua Hin draw. In the top half, the new tournament favourite will come from the winner of Friday’s quarter final showdown between former World No.1 Garbine Muguruza (now No.15) and our 18-year-old One to Watch in 2019, Dayana Yastremska…
I’m firmly with the teenager. It’s early days in her career but so far Yastremska is shaping up to be your classic big-hitting ‘streaky’ player; if you catch her on a good week, she’ll blaze through the draw and wipe out everyone. So far this week it’s looking like one of those, with little over an hour needed in each of her first two matches, blasting through 6-0, 6-3 and then 6-1, 6-4.
The Ukrainian beat Muguruza 6-2, 6-3 in Luxembourg near the end of last season. The Spaniard is playing more consistently than she was then, but I still have big doubts about her mental toughness in matches these days. Getting to No.1 didn’t sit well with Muguruza. The youngster will pressure her here.
Yastremska is priced up as the slight match outsider at around Evens (2.00). That looks a little generous to me, but the price I prefer is 4/1 (5.00) in the Outright Winner (Win Only) market.
If Yastremska beats Muguruza then she’ll be through to the semi finals, and would be the clear favourite in that match. The next step would then of course be the final, and the way the draw is looking now I say she’d be the favourite there, too.
We already have Tomljanovic in the opposite side of the draw. In the top half, adding 4/1 Yastremska is my advice.
Today’s Ones to Watch pick is:
WTA Hua Hin – Toyota Thailand Open
BET: Dayana Yastremska @ 4/1
BOOKIES: 4/1 (5.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred
The quarter finals start from 7am Friday, UK time.
Enjoy the tennis…