Tennis Betting Advice - January 2020
Australian Open: Djokovic to dominate at 10/1...
Wednesday 29th January 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good evening and welcome to day 11 of our Australian Open coverage.
Play starts at Midnight. You can watch live on the Eurosport channels, website or app.
Thiem breaks through...
We said that Dominic Thiem was getting closer to beating Rafael Nadal at a Grand Slam – both on the scoreboard, and in the bookies’ odds.
On Wednesday morning the 26-year-old Austrian finally got the breakthrough against Rafa, beating the World No.1 in an entertaining match, 7-6, 7-6, 4-6, 7-6.
Thiem played some brilliant, high energy and big-hitting tennis. He was a deserving winner on the day.
That’s a big result and means our 22/1 selection moves in the semi finals. The bookies now make Thiem a 5/1 shot to take the title.
We’ll look at Dominic’s upcoming semi final v Alexander Zverev in tomorrow’s email.
Two still standing...
Tonight’s schedule sees the women’s semi finals, followed by Roger Federer v Novak Djokovic in the men’s.
If you’re planning on watching live, then you’re in for an all-nighter. Ashleigh Barty v Sofia Kenin starts from 3am UK time, followed by Simona Halep v Garbine Muguruza.
Federer v Nadal is scheduled for 8.30am.
Throughout the tournament I’ve been updating where we stand on the ‘percentage of the field’...
In terms of our Ones to Watch picks in the Outright Winner markets, we have 50/1 Sofia Kenin in the women’s, and 22/1 Dominic Thiem in the men’s.
A total of 256 men & women lined up at the start of the Melbourne fortnight. We backed 10 players in the Outright Winner market (4%).
With the semi final line-ups in place and eight players remaining in the tournament, we have two still standing – moving our percentage of the field figure up to 25%.
Sonya in the Semi Finals tonight...
In the Match Winner markets, Sofia ‘Sonya’ Kenin is a 5/2 (3.50) underdog. World No.1 Ash Barty is 4/11 (1.36) at best to reach the final.
The head-to-head is 4-1 to Barty. But their two hard court meetings came just last year and have been split. With the Australian winning 6-3, 7-5 at Wuhan last year, and Kenin prevailing 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 in Toronto.
Barty will have the Aussie crowd 100% behind her here, that’s for sure. And so far, the 23-year-old has looked comfortable and very much at ease playing ‘at home.’ The pressure will be ramped-up a bit now, though.
Our 21-year-old American pick has done great to break through to her first Grand Slam semi final. I’ve been saying for some time now that we want to be on Kenin when she makes the leap forward on the big stage – and we are, with 50/1 onside for this tournament.
Bookies reluctant to serve up Aces...
With this being the semi final stage of a Grand Slam, I was hoping for a more appealing range of Aces and Double Faults markets from the bookies for these matches.
Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook are playing ball, with options available, although their odds are very conservative in terms of protecting any liability on the favourites.
For example, Barty is just 1/50 (1.02) to serve the Most Aces v Kenin.
The Australian’s 29 aces from five matches make her the highest ace-maker left in the women’s draw, and in 2nd place for the tournament overall.
Sonya has hit just 6 aces in total, averaging just 1.2 per match.
In five previous meetings v Kenin, Barty has bossed the ace scores by some distance: 7-2, 8-4, 11-1, 10-1, 6-0.
With a match-up like this, an Aces Handicap bet would be a consideration. Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook’s -6.5 Aces Handicap for Barty tallies pretty much dead-on with the winning margin average of 6.8 aces from those five previous meetings.
888 Sport & Unibet are a little better, with the handicap at -4.5 aces.
Having scouted around the spread betting markets for any potential upside in the supremacy department, SpreadEx and SportingIndex both drew a blank with no such Aces market available for this match.
Options are limited there, then. But in Thursday morning’s men’s match, we can take a couple of worthwhile prices in the Set Score markets…
Djokovic to dominate at 10/1...
Federer v Djokovic is always a headline match. But going into this one, Djokovic is the reigning champion and heavy odds-on favourite at 4/11 to retain his Australian Open crown, while Federer at 12/1 is the biggest price of the four men left in the tournament.
In the Match Winner prices, Roger is as big as 6/1 to beat Novak. With the Serbian 1/7 (1.14) at the very best.
Over the last three rounds, Federer has had two gruelling, five-set struggles, either side of a 3-1 win in which he dropped the first set and had to come from behind to get the job done.
Along the way, the Swiss legend has had a medical timeout, saved seven match points, and been taken to one final-set deciding tiebreak.
Djokovic, on the other hand, has made pretty serene progress, looking in great shape with just one set dropped, in the opening round. Since then, Novak has won four matches in a row in straight sets, 3-0.
In the Set Betting market, the defending champ is odds-on to win 3-0 v Federer, at around 5/6 (1.83). However, it’s worth noting that none of the last eight Grand Slam encounters between Djokovic and Federer have been settled in straight sets.
If Federer is struggling for fitness and/ or fatigued from his efforts to get this far, then one route to obtaining attractive odds on a dominant Djokovic win is to target some one-sided Set Scores.
Against Tennys Sandgren in the quarter final, Federer lost the second and third sets, 2-6, 2-6.
The last time these two greats met at the Aussie Open (2016 semi final), Djokovic won 6-1, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.
I’d be surprised to see Djokovic 6-0 ‘bagel’ Federer – and Roger would fight tooth & nail to prevent that humiliating score-line. But a couple of breaks of serve and a 6-2 or even 6-1 set or two is not out of the question at all here, given the circumstances.
Pre-match, bookies have a general range of markets for these Set Score bets for the 1st and 2nd sets.
It’s an aggressive tactic, but this match does feel like an opportunity for Djokovic to put his foot down, if not for the whole match then for a set or two at least.
Covering those options gives a few worthwhile prices here…
Ones to Watch:
Federer v Djokovic
I’ll be back tomorrow with your day 12 email, when we’ll be focusing on Thiem v Zverev.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…