Tennis Betting Advice - January 2020
Australian Open: ‘Five Setters’ and 100/1 chances…
Wednesday 22nd January 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good evening and welcome to day four of our Australian Open coverage.
Play starts at Midnight. You can watch the matches live on the Eurosport channels, website or app.
Ones to Watch member Rob put yesterday’s match analysis to good use:
“Just had to write to thank you for the advice on the Paire v. Cilic match. OK. The tip you gave lost but it gave me a winner. Two in fact.
Not only did I back Paire to win 3-2 but, as Cilic was 6.00 to win 3-2 I had money on that one too. In fact, I dutched my stake so it mattered not who won. In addition, and given your comments, I felt that the 13.0 odds on the match “going the whole way” were really good. Only a small bet but a great return. Overall profit on this one match – 16 points.
Once again your advice brings me winners in places I would never have thought they existed” - Rob
Well done, Rob. That’s superb stuff. And after a tough (and late) night watching as many of our matches as I could get my eyeballs on, that email was great to see this morning. Rob certainly did better than my nominated picks.
The match in question ended with a final-set tiebreak, in a 6-2, 6-7, 3-6, 6-1, 7-6 victory for Cilic.
Three with potential tonight…
We’ve seen a couple of players posting back-to-back five-set matches in the opening few days. Paire was one of them. Fabio Fognini another.
From tonight’s round two schedule, the likes of Aljaz Bedene, Kevin Anderson and Nikoloz Basilashvili could repeat the trick…
Crucially, when you add in their respective opponents – Ernests Gulbis, Taylor Fritz and Fernando Verdasco – then we have a good few players in action that are long-standing names in my ‘potential-five-sets’ and ‘rollercoaster matches’ notes.
Picking (or dutching) 3-2 for each player in the Set Betting markets is one option. I like the Total Sets route here, where you’ll get 2/1+ (3.00+) for each of those three matches to go to 5 Sets.
For a potential big payout from these three potential five-set matches, a Trixie offers a profit for two out of three correct picks – and 40/1 or 30/1+ for a full house. (Trixie = three Doubles and a Treble).
Bet365 are the best place to go for those picks tonight. They have a special ‘Five Setters’ coupon, with the three matches we’re interested in at 5/2 (3.50) each:
We’re heading into day four and the tournament is starting to take shape.
Both the men’s & women’s draws have got some tantalising match-ups that could be just around the corner…
A Rafael Nadal v Nick Kyrgios encounter would be box office.
Or how about starting the decade with 38-year-old superstar Serena Williams against 15-year-old newcomer Cori Gauff in the quarter finals? It’s not impossible.
I’m always on the lookout for the outsiders and the big-price opportunities. This season I’m making no bones about going after a 100/1 winner. Two young women catch the eye in that department today…
We’ve already identified the bottom half of the women’s draw as the area to target for an outsider to come through here.
The top half has the likes of Serena, Naomi Osaka, Ashleigh Barty, Petra Kvitova, Madison Keys and Caroline Wozniacki – all of them Grand Slam title winners or finalists in the last three seasons.
In with that lot, we’ve got Sofia Kenin flying the Ones to Watch flag at 50/1. She’s through to the 3rd round, with two 2-0 wins so far – and tougher challenges ahead.
Down in the opposite side of the draw-sheet, we’re on Belinda Bencic at big prices. And in her section – the 3rd Quarter – we’re adding two improving young players, at 100/1 each…
In recent years, the women’s game has seen success for players with the ability to take the racket out of their opponents’ hands. In other words – young women who hit the ball very hard, and can streak into ‘unplayable’ surges of form.
In 2017, Jelena Ostapenko won the French Open on clay at 100/1 with the all-or-nothing, aggressive game style…
Naomi Osaka has won two of the last three hard-court Slams with her power-play approach, including the US Open 2018 at 50/1…
And two-time Wimbledon winner Petra Kvitova is the archetypal hit-or-miss player.
Anett Kontaveit has featured in our Ones to Watch lists before. Age 24, she looks steadier than I’ve ever seen her right now. Prone to nervy patches in big matches, yes. But when firing on all cylinders, she can genuinely knock anyone off the park.
Last night, the Estonian won 6-0, 6-2. The bookies make her short odds-on to win again tonight and move into round three. Kontaveit and Bencic could then meet to give us a guaranteed big-odds pick in the Last 16.
Mapping the draw out to that point, our 18-year-old Ones to Watch in 2020 selection Iga Swiatek could be the one to break through, and in doing so give us a shot at getting a player into the quarter finals…
The Polish teenager was also a confident winner in round one, coming through 6-3, 6-2 and looking very assured. Like Kontaveit, she can really dish out the winners from her racket.
And I like Iga’s demeanour, a lot. For such a young player, Swiatek looks remarkably calm and controlled. Not many people are talking about this particular teenager right now. But a couple more match wins here and that will soon change.
Time for Thiem…
Last but not least, we’re adding 20/1 Dominic Thiem to our Outright Winner collection.
He’s made the French Open final two years running and you now won’t see 20/1 for Thiem at the clay-court Slam for a long time. The Austrian is currently 4/1 in general and 5/1 at best to usurp Clay Court King, Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros this May.
On hard courts, the World No.5 has made big improvements in the last couple of seasons…
In 2018, Thiem reached the 4th round here in Melbourne, and pushed Nadal all the way to a final-set tiebreak in the US Open quarter finals.
Last year, Dominic made seven finals and four of them were at hard-court venues. He won five trophies, and three of them were on the hard stuff. That includes big title wins at Beijing (ATP 500 event) and ATP Indian Wells (ATP Masters 1000). He beat Roger Federer in the Indian Wells final, and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Beijing final.
Thiem is in the top half of the men’s draw. As such he avoids Novak Djokovic or Federer until the final. With Nadal a potential quarter final. And remember, Rafa might have to get past an inspired Nick Kyrgios to get that far.
At 26 years old, Thiem is at an important stage of his career. A good couple of years older than the ‘Next Gen’ wave of players coming up, I get the feeling his age & experience – along with his superb fitness, agility and world-class backhand – can take him to a Grand Slam title before some of the more fashionable names.
Ones to Watch:
Aljaz Bedene v Ernests Gulbis – 5 Sets
Taylor Fritz v Kevin Anderson – 5 Sets
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Fernando Verdasco – 5 Sets
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
I’ll be back at 8pm tomorrow.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: email@example.com
Enjoy the tennis…