Tennis Betting Advice - January 2020

Australian Open: Day Three – 7/1 and 8/1 match picks…

Tuesday 21st January 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Play starts Midnight…
  • Day 3…
  • Round 2…

Good evening and welcome to day three of our Australian Open coverage.

Play starts at Midnight. You can watch the matches live on the Eurosport channels, website or app.

It only takes one…

Tuesday was a brutal day of tennis, for more reasons than one. After rain delays on Monday, a relentless day two schedule went on for about 17 hours of the Melbourne day (and night).

There were some bruising score-lines for our big-odds, Ones to Watch outsiders.

We lost 500/1 Reilly Opelka, who fell from two sets to nil up – going down in a final-set first-to-10-points tiebreaker. Amanda Anisimova (40/1) and Marketa Vondrousova (50/1) both also crashed out in round one, with both matches going to a deciding set – and falling the wrong way.

At those prices, we only need one big-odds outsider to deliver to make it all worthwhile.

In the case of a 500/1 shot like Opelka, one every season would be more than enough to keep us all contented. And that’s no pie in the sky, either. In the last two years, this very tournament has seen players at 200/1, 300/1 and 500/1 reach the semi finals.

As it stands, we have three Each Way picks moving into round two here at the Australian Open. They are Andrey Rublev (66/1, 50/1), Sofia Kenin (50/1, 40/1) and Belinda Bencic (50/1, 40/1, 33/1).

We shall we delving into the draws and the Outright Winner markets again in the next couple of days.

Day 3…

For tonight, with the 2nd round kicking off at Midnight, we have Kenin in action against fellow American youngster, Ann Li.

The bookies make our player the 1/5 (1.20) favourite to progress to the 3rd round. Kenin is ranked No.15 in the world. Li – who is still a teenager until June – is at No.142. These two have met once before on the WTA Tour, with Kenin prevailing 2-0 on hard courts in the Miami qualifiers in 2018.

  • Rublev and Bencic will play their 2nd round matches on day four

Match picks…

We’re getting stuck into the match markets this evening. My day three research has thrown up a handful of opportunities for us.

Benoit Paire to beat Marin Cilic 3-2 @ 7/1

These two are both no strangers to five-set epics at Grand Slams. In fact, Benoit Paire had one just yesterday. He brings the form here, having reached the ATP Auckland final last week.

The career head-to-head is 4-1 to Cilic. But they’ve never met in a best-of-five-set match before. In the best-of-three sets format, all of their four previous hard-court encounters have been see-saw affairs, going the distance to a final set.

Cilic can get a bit nervy in situations like this. In the Set Betting market, Paire to edge it 3-2 is the pick at 7/1.

Kristyna Pliskova to beat Heather Watson 2-1 @ 4/1

The less-famous of the Pliskova twins, Kristyna Pliskova has a dangerous left-handed serve and that could prove the difference in this tight-looking battle with the Brit.

Both women have started 2020 well, with semi finals runs on the WTA Tour this month. Three of Watson’s last four matches have gone to three sets. So have Pliskova’s last two. And when they last played each other in 2016, that one went the distance, too.

This looks every inch a three-set tussle. Kristyna’s serve (and nerve) to hold out is my call. Pliskova to win 2-1 is 4/1 or 7/2 (4.50).

Neither player has done much at the Slams before. But Watson’s record at the hardcourt Majors is particularly poor – losing in the 2nd round or earlier in each of her last 12 visits to the Australian Open and US Open combined.

Petra has another bagel in her…

Petra Kvitova started like a train in round one, winning 6-0, 6-1. Those are the kid of set scores the Czech reels off when she’s on song.

Tonight’s opponent Paula Gibert-Badosa had never won a Grand Slam main draw match before this week.

Expect Kvitova to show no mercy here. She’s very short odds-on to win, and also to win in straight sets, 2-0. In the Total Games market, Under 17.5 Games at 4/5 (1.80) covers a result such as 6-3, 6-2 or better.

For fancier odds, the ‘bagel’ 6-0 score-line is 8/1 in the 1st Set Score market (and worth a look if you can get it in-play for the 2nd Set, too).

Skybet also have a few options where you can capitalise on a dominant Kvitova win. ‘Kvitova to win & under 17.5 games’ is 10/11. ‘Kvitova to win every set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2’ is 13/8 (2.63).

8/1 Match Winner acca…

I hardly ever put up accumulators. But the early rounds of the Grand Slams are the handful of times a year when we can go to town a little with a large range of matches to pick from.

On tonight’s day three schedule, I like these nine players to all win. The Match Winner combo pays around 8/1:

  • Aryna Sabalenka to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro
  • Anett Kontaveit to beat Astra Sharma
  • Veronika Kudermetova to beat Sara Sorribes-Tormo
  • Ekaterina Alexandrova to beat Barbora Krejcikova
  • Alison Riske to beat Zhu Lin
  • Cori Gauff to beat Sorana Cirstea
  • Maria Sakkari to beat Nao Hibino
  • Diego Schwartzman to beat Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina
  • Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Michael Mmoh

Make sure you bet with bookies who void matches in the event of in-play retirements, so you don’t lose your acca if one leg drops out ill or injured. More on that here.

Ones to Watch:

Match picks:

  • Set Betting – Benoit Paire to beat Marin Cilic 3-2 @ 7/1 (8.00) with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet
  • Set Betting – Kristyna Pliskova to beat Heather Watson 2-1 @ 4/1 (5.00) with Marathonbet, 15/4 (4.75) Bet365, 7/2 (4.50) Skybet, Boylesports, 888 Sport, Unibet
  • Total Games – Paula Gibert-Badosa v Petra Kvitova – Under 17.5 Games @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365, Skybet, Betway, Sportingbet
  • 1st Set Score – Kvitova 6-0 @ 8/1 (9.00) with Bet365, William Hill, Skybet, 15/2 (8.50) Betway
  • Match Winners – Accumulator on the 9 players listed above @ 8/1 (9.00) with Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 7/1 (8.00) Bet365, Boylesports

I’ll be back by 8pm tomorrow with your day four email.

If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch