Tennis Betting Advice - January 2020
Our first 100/1 pick of the year…
Thursday 16th January 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Our first 100/1 pick of the year…
Andrey Rublev has been on the radar for some time.
As a 20-year-old, the Russian appeared on our Ones to Watch in 2018 list, published in December 2017. That notebook entry reads:
Of all the youngsters on the Men’s tour, Andrey Rublev looks one of the most likely to follow up on his early-years promise.
The 6’2” Russian plays with power and style, going for (and making) winners from all over the court; it’s a brand of attacking tennis that’s exciting to watch – and tough for his opponents to deal with.
Rublev doesn’t seem to fear anyone and the early signs are that he has the mental toughness for the big occasion.
He won his first Senior title last season, lifting the ATP Umag trophy at odds of 50/1. There should be more final appearances to come in 2018.
Ups and downs…
Things stalled for a while. Injury and loss of form have played their part at various points in the last 24 months or so.
After finishing 2017 ranked No.39 in the world, Rublev had drifted to No.68 by the end of the 2018 season – with just one more final reached, and no more trophies to his name.
That changed in the second half of 2019, though…
In July, the right-hander was a 66/1 runner-up on clay at ATP Hamburg. Then lifted a second career ATP title in October, winning at Moscow on (indoor) hard courts at 12/1.
Rublev on a roll…
Andrey finished the season ranked No.22. And after a flawless start to 2020, he currently sits at a new career-high of No.18 in the world.
Rublev opened his campaign with a 5/1 title win in Doha this month.
Marching straight on with his January schedule, the wiry youngster then moved directly on to Adelaide this week, where he was installed as a 4/1 favourite.
At the time of writing, Rublev is through to the Adelaide semi finals. With an early-season ATP Tour hard-court match record that reads played 6, won 6.
Continuing that form from the end of last season, Andrey is on a 10-match winning streak, having won all four of his Singles matches for Russia at the Davis Cup Finals in November.
Going back to the start of the Cincinnati Masters in August – where he beat Roger Federer to reach the quarter finals – Rublev has won 33 of his last 41 matches, all on hard courts (80%).
And since the start of his run to the Hamburg final last July, the man from Moscow has reached the quarter finals or beyond in eight out of 14 ATP tournament appearances.
66/1 and 100/1…
This is a player on the rise.
Hard courts are his best surface.
And while some of the 22-year-old’s contemporaries are much shorter in the Grand Slam betting as we head into the Australian Open (23-year-old fellow Russian, Daniil Medvedev is 8/1, 23-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas is 14/1)…
Rublev looks on the right side of the odds at the moment as a 66/1 outsider for Australia, and as big as 150/1 and 100/1 for the US Open.
Those are the two hard-court Grand Slams. And as such, they are the most likely venues for Andrey to make his bigtime breakthrough.
Since he first made our lists over two years ago, Rublev’s on-court demeanour looks to have improved: there looks to be a bit more belief behind the eyes, now.
At the most recent Grand Slam in New York, Rublev made the 4th Round of the US Open. He’s also a former quarter-finalist on the Flushing Meadows courts (2017) – making the US Open his best Slam by some distance.
In the Australian Open draw, Rublev is in the top half – which avoids the 6/5 (2.20) tournament favourite Novak Djokovic until the final.
To reach the quarter finals, the Russian would on paper need to overcome higher-seeded opponents David Goffin (100/1) and Alexander Zverev (40/1). Both of those assignments are well within Rublev’s capabilities – and he’s in better form than both of those two right now.
At outsider prices, Andrey Rublev goes down as a 66/1 pick for the Australian Open this week, and an early 100/1 shot for the US Open in August.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner picks – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
The Australian Open starts on Sunday night. I’ll be in touch before then with our plan of action for the next fortnight, and your Day One email.
Two semi finals in the morning…
Over in Auckland this week, we have 9/1 pick Hubert Hurkacz through to the semi finals on Friday morning, with the bookies now making the Pole a 7/4 (2.75) favourite for the title.
And at the women’s event in Hobart, we have 16/1 Veronika Kudermetova through to the final four, too – and trimmed to 3/1 for the trophy.
Those semi finals are both scheduled for 5.30am Friday, UK time. In both cases, we’re one match win away from an Each Way payout.
Enjoy the tennis…