Tennis Betting Advice - January 2021

Two outsiders for the Great Ocean Road…

Sunday 31st January 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Men’s Melbourne tournaments start from 11.30pm…
  • ATP Great Ocean Road Open…
  • Ones to Watch at 22/1 and 150/1…

This week’s two WTA tournaments are both 500-grade events. And as such, they feature a stack of big names…

The likes of Serena Williams, Naomi Osaka, Ashleigh Barty, Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova – to name just five.

The men’s Melbourne events, however, are lower-grade ATP 250-level. With less ranking points and prestige up for grabs.

As such, the fields at the Murray River Open and Great Ocean Road Open are significantly less top-heavy than the women’s tournaments taking place concurrently, the Gippsland Trophy and the Yarra Valley Classic.

And with the ATP Cup international team competition stealing away pretty much of all the competing nations’ top male players, this week’s two men’s tournaments may well prove ripe for an outsider to come through, at big prices…

Two outsiders for the Great Ocean Road…

In Saturday’s email I outlined the case for opposing the favoured names in the week before a Grand Slam.

As I write, the bookmakers are being a bit slow in pricing up the Outright Winner markets for the two ATP tournaments which both start with their opening 1st round matches from 11.30pm+ (Sunday night).

We’re yet to see any quotes for the Murray River Open. I’ll report back on Monday if any players & prices catch the eye.

The markets are starting to appear for the Great Ocean Road Open. And there are two names at promising prices that appeal to me. With my mindset, as ever, on anticipating a potential outsider’s route through the draw…

For reasons already outlined, I certainly have no interest at all in backing the names at the top of the betting, where the odds look very tight indeed. David Goffin and Jannik Sinner are 4/1 co-favourites. And Karen Khachanov, Hubert Hurkacz, and Reilly Opelka are all 7/1 or shorter, too.

In these conditions – on hard courts, with a less intimidating field of competitors than most weeks on the tour, and this being the week before a Grand Slam – two men that appeal to me are:

Kevin Anderson at 22/1

Kwon Soon-woo at 150/1

Both are in the bottom half of the draw here.

South Africa’s Kevin Anderson is 34 years of age now, but as we noted last season, age hasn’t dampened Big Kev’s hunger for trophies. He sets himself high standards. The road back from injuries has been tough. But when his body lets him, he’s still a top-class player.

A former 50/1 Ones to Watch Wimbledon finalist for us (2018), Anderson owes us nothing. Last season, he was nearly in the good books again in a big way, reaching the ATP Vienna semi finals as a 100/1 shot.

If Anderson can negotiate a tough 1st round match against fellow veteran Feliciano Lopez, then the rest of the week in Melbourne could open up for Kevin – and 22/1 would be a good ticket to have in hand. He holds a 4-1 career head-to-head record against the 39-year-old Spaniard.

South Korea’s Kwon Soon-woo features on our new Ones to Watch in 2021 list. As we noted in that report, the 23-year-old started last season with a run of quarter final appearances on the ATP Tour, before the pandemic shut down play in March.

A 1st round defeat to fellow OTW 2021 name Sebastian Korda at ATP Delray Beach this month doesn’t look bad at all. It was 6-4, 6-4 to Korda – who went on to reach a debut ATP final that week.

With some huge odds likely to be available for the South Korean today – 150/1 with Bet365 as I write – Kwon Soon-woo is going in as our first 100/1+ attempt of the year…

Ones to Watch:

ATP Great Ocean Road Open, Melbourne

Outright Winner – Each Way

  • Kevin Anderson is 22/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
  • Kwon Soon-woo is 150/1 with Bet365, 80/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Other bookmakers likely to price up during Sunday afternoon/ evening include Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral.

Play starts from 11.30pm. Most bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets overnight while matches are taking place.

I’ll be back on Monday with more on this week’s Melbourne tournaments, as we count down to the start of the Australian Open.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch