Tennis Betting Advice - January 2022
Australian Open Day 10 - Double Fault potential...
Tuesday 25th January 2022
Australian Open daily email service – Day 10
The Aussies boys did the business last night. Thanasi Kokkinakis & Nick Kyrgios beat Tim Puetz & Michael Venus, 7-5, 3-6, 6-3. The Australian pair move through to the Men’s Doubles semi finals, with another rowdy crowd sure to be in support.
In the Men’s Singles, our 22-year-old outsider Denis Shapovalov put up a superb effort against Rafael Nadal – just falling short in the final set of a five-set rocker. At the start of the tournament, Nadal was 6/1. Shapovalov was 80/1 – and I’d take that kind of price about the young Canadian again.
The quarter finals continue this evening, where we have two interests in the Outright Winner markets…
Sinner v Tsitsipas
In the men’s, we have Jannik Sinner. From a top price of 25/1 pre-tournament, he’s now 12/1 at best to go all the way.
Sinner takes on two-time Aussie Open semi-finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas. The 23-year-old Greek is the higher-ranked player, and has the greater Grand Slam second-week experience. But such has the form of our 20-year-old Italian been – Jannik is yet to drop a set – the oddsmakers have Sinner as the 4/6 (1.67) favourite.
That match is due on court around 4am, UK time.
Collins v Cornet
In the women’s, our 40/1+ pick Danielle Collins is now 10/1 to win her maiden Grand Slam title.
The American takes on Alize Cornet at Midnight, UK time. And that means no let up from the heat for those two women, both of whom have played out three-set epics in the last two rounds. Both had to contend with the midday sun in Melbourne last time out, with similar conditions to be expected again.
Cornet has been one of the surprise packages of the Australian Open 2022. Age 32, and at her 63rd attempt, the Frenchwoman has reached a Grand Slam quarter final for the first time in her career. On day one last week, Cornet was 500/1 for the trophy. Going into tonight’s encounter, she’s now 33/1, which puts her towards the bottom of the betting list, of the players left in contention.
Despite their long stints on the WTA Tour – Collins is 28 years of age – this will be their first meeting. The bookies make our player the 1/3 (1.33) favourite to beat Cornet, and progress to what would be a second career Australian Open semi final. It’s reassuring that the bookies have such faith in our player, although hand on heart, I think this could be a close one.
Double Fault potential…
Rather than oppose our pick directly, my preference here is to back Collins for the Most Double Faults in the match. The bookies have this market as 50-50. Which is completely logical, given that Danielle and Alize are pretty much neck-and-neck in the tournament stats:
Collins Double Faults = 20
Sets played = 10
Average Double Faults per Set = 2
Cornet Double Faults = 18
Sets played = 10
Average Double Faults per Set = 1.8
If Collins has a rosy day at the office and marches into the semis, I’ll be happy, whatever the scoreboard looks like. But two factors make me want to take the American for the Most Double Faults.
Firstly, Collins has the more aggressive game overall, and in this pressure situation, that could mean a ‘forced’ going-for-it approach on some points and serves.
Secondly, Danielle did seem a little physically uncomfortable in her three-set win in the last round, often clutching her hip/ back area. If there’s something in that, then her service motion could well suffer.
The bookmakers can’t really split these two players in the Double Faults market. I’ve outlined my case for why Collins might just be a hint of value in this department.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Australian Open 2022 – Women’s
Danielle Collins v Alize Cornet
Also available: Collins @ 4/5 (1.8) Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, who void bets if it’s a tie.
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I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 11 email.
P.S
If you’d like to get in touch during the tournament, you can email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson