Tennis Betting Advice - January 2022
Sunday 16th January 2022
Welcome to your Australian Open daily email service – Day 1
Over the next two weeks, I’ll be in your inbox by 5pm every day. Offering my insight, analysis, betting picks and advice, for the first Grand Slam of 2022.
In the Outright Winner markets, our Ones to Watch business is to back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices. In that respect, we already have four youngsters in the book…
Amanda Anisimova 100/1
Clara Tauson 100/1
Jannik Sinner 25/1
Carlos Alcaraz 33/1
Throughout the tournament, I’ll also be sharing with you any match selections that stand out to me. Targeting Match Winners, underdogs and value prices across a variety of markets.
What you need to know…
We could talk all day about what’s being going in Australia – and a ball hasn’t even been hit yet. The big story of course has been the deportation of Novak Djokovic. It’s been headline news on both the front and back pages, so I won’t go over it all in detail here.
What you & I are primarily interested in is, how does Djokovic’s removal from the draw effect the betting?
Well, because the draw and the day one order of play had already been released before the final Djokovic decision was announced, that means it’s too late for a reshuffle to be made. Therefore, the top spot in the draw, previously occupied by world no.1 Djokovic, is now taken by world no.150, Salvatore Caruso, as a Lucky Loser.
It's a pretty surreal situation. And means the other players in that half of the draw now have the opportunity to take advantage of a drawsheet that no longer contains the nine-time Australian Open champion…
Who can take advantage?
From a betting point of view then, it’s logical for us to take a look at a few names that can make the most of this ‘softer draw’ situation…
First up, it should be said that Rafael Nadal is in this half of the draw. With no Djokovic or Roger Federer competing here, Nadal is the only member of the long-established Big Three in the Melbourne field. Giving him the chance to reach Grand Slam title number 21, before either of his two superstar rivals.
With ‘just’ the five finals and one Australian Open trophy to his name, this event is actually Nadal’s ‘worst’ Major. Although of course, in such a glittering career, it’s hard to pick many holes in the Spaniard’s achievements.
The fact remains though, Rafa’s knees have never held up as well on hard courts as on the famous clay at Roland Garros. At just 13/2 (7.5) and 6/1 (7.0) for the title, I can happily leave the 35-year-old out of my selections. In the Outright markets, prices like that are not what we’re all about here at Ones to Watch.
For much, much bigger prices. Here are some of the names that could do well from being in this now Djokovic-less side of the draw:
Denis Shapovalov (80/1) – former Junior Wimbledon winner. Reached a first Senior Grand Slam quarter final in 2020, and then a debut semi final last year.
Hubert Hurkacz (66/1) – a Ones to Watch regular for us last season. Hurkacz made the Wimbledon semis as a 200/1 shot. And won the Miami Masters on hard courts at 100/1.
Aslan Karatsev (50/1) – the surprise package at the Australian Open in 2021, reaching the semi finals as a 1,000/1 tournament outsider. Has built on that breakout run, winning three ATP titles since – all on hard courts – including ATP Sydney this month. If the seeds go to form, then Hurkacz and Karatsev would meet each other in the 3rd round – which is a bit early for my liking. Nadal would be the projected 4th-round opponent.
Gael Monfils (150/1) – the fun-loving Frenchman is one of the most talented players to have never reached a Grand Slam final. Monfils has got to the semi-final stage twice (French Open, US Open). He’s got to the second week (Last 16) in three of his last six visits to the Australian Open. Gael is loving life more than ever recently, getting married last year, and starting 2022 with a tournament win at ATP Adelaide. However, throughout his career, injury has always hampered Monfils. Age 35, has this Aussie Open opportunity come a little too late for him to go all the way?
I like this guy a lot. But my head tells me that Monfils’ body probably won’t last the full two-week, seven-match, best-of-five-sets distance. If you’re partial to a trade on the Betfair Exchange though, current odds of 150/1+ could give you plenty to play with, should Gael go deep.
Lorenzo Sonego (350/1) – the 26-year-old Italian has never been past the 2nd round at a hard-court Major (Aus Open, US Open), or for that matter won any hard-court titles on the ATP Tour. However, Lorenzo is well-placed in the top quarter of the draw here, with some very winnable looking matches ahead of him in the early rounds. Sonego has plenty of powerful shots, and the look of a player who likes the big occasion. He could have a big run here, and huge triple-figure odds make him a low downside bet, to small stakes. A potential surprise package.
Along with that massive price, I’m inclined to stick with the youngsters here. From that list, that makes 22-year-old Shapovalov my one to add to the book today at 80/1. To go with our existing 18-year-old Ones to Watch pick, Carlos Alcaraz (available at 40/1 today).
In the women’s event, the What You Need to Know info can be distilled down to this:
In a nutshell: it’s wide open. Go for outsiders. Expect the unexpected.
At the top…
The top five in the women’s betting have all won Grand Slams before:
Followed in the Outright Winner list by these three:
Not far behind in the betting, two women that had fantastic seasons in 2021 – and are both looking to reach a debut Grand Slam final:
None of those prices do it for me, I’m afraid. I’m sticking to my guns with only going after the genuine outsiders in the women’s Outright Winner market. If you forced my hand though, I’d say Halep, Kontaveit and Badosa from those seven.
Two talents to back today…
The top half of the women’s draw play their 1st round matches tonight/ Monday morning. From that section of the sheet, two names & prices to add to our Each Way book here are:
Coco Gauff @ 25/1 – our Ones to Watch teenager is going to win something big sooner or later. Still just 17 years of age, the recent rise of other teenagers such as US Open finalists Emma Raducanu and Leylah Fernandez has seen the spotlight and hype die down a little for the American. That could be a good thing. Competing here as something of a dark horse, Gauff is one youngster I want to keep onside.
Ons Jabeur @ 50/1 – along with Kontaveit and Badosa, Jabeur had a breakthrough year in 2021, and was one of the form players in the women’s game. Ons made the quarter finals here in 2020, beaten by eventual champion Sofia Kenin. Since then, the Tunisian has collected a first WTA title, made another Major quarter final (Wimbledon 2021), and climbed into the world’s Top 10. Odds of 50/1 & 40/1 mark this super-talented player out as one to follow this fortnight.
Ones to Watch picks:
Australian Open 2022
Outright Winner – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
Note: unless otherwise stated, I treat all Outright Winner bets as 1 point Each Way (eg. 2 pts total stake per player).
Already in the book:
Jannik Sinner – best price today 22/1 Boylesports, 20/1 general
Carlos Alcaraz – best price today 40/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, MansionBet, NetBet, 10Bet
Already in the book:
Amanda Anisimova – best price today 66/1 Skybet, 50/1 general
Clara Tauson – best price today 80/1 Skybet, 66/1 general
Play starts from Midnight, UK time.
I’ll be back by 5pm on Monday with your Day 2 email.
Want to get in touch? My email is: email@example.com
Enjoy the tennis…