Tennis Betting Advice - January 2023
Australian Open: Day 10 - Old demons, and big prices...
Tuesday 24th January 2023
Good afternoon and welcome to Day 10 of your Australian Open 2023 daily service. Play starts from Midnight UK time…
The old demons…
Sometime last season, I remember saying that Jessica Pegula has a habit of faltering in the quarter finals of big events. Improved results in recent months have dispelled some of that thinking. But the fact cannot be ignored: Pegula somewhat froze in the headlights again this morning.
The 28-year-old American was well beaten, 2-0, by 33-year-old Victoria Azarenka. Pegula has now reached the quarter finals in four of the last five Grand Slams. A great achievement in its own right, for sure. But you have to be ruthless at the top - and the truth is, Jessica has lost all four of those Major quarter finals in straight sets.
Will the old demons come back to haunt some of the other players in quarter-final action this evening?
Names on that list, with ‘previous’ for wilting under pressure when the heat is really on at the top level include Andrey Rublev (he’s playing Novak Djokovic in the morning - see below). And in the women’s, two I’m interested in for tonight’s betting:
Karolina Pliskova remains such a hard player to trust with your cash. Indeed, I know of at least one Ones to Watch member who has the former world no.1 down on his ‘never again’ list. The big-serving Czech was a 33/1 US Open runner-up for us back in 2016. Since then, Karolina has also made the Wimbledon final (2021). On both occasions, she won a set, but ultimately lost those Major finals.
Aryna Sabalenka is less of an enigma. The Belarusian wears her heart on her sleeve. Although here at the Australian Open 2023, we’ve definitely seen a more knowingly calm and controlled Sabalenka on court. She knew what she needed to work on after last season’s serving debacle, and that hard work has been paying off this month. As with Pliskova, the former world no.2 has also got very, very near the top of the sport - but as yet a first Grand Slam singles trophy eludes Aryna. And that’s the big prize that everybody wants…
Mental toughness is the magic ingredient…
What we’re talking about here is mental strength. It’s the key to success in elite-level sport. You can have talent, a great work ethic, and all the ability in the world. But if you can’t execute the plan when you need to, and find your best tennis in the biggest moments. Then greatness - in terms of sporting immortality - will never be achieved. I’m thinking of the true legends as I write this: Roger Federer being one that springs to mind straight away.
Maybe I’m setting the bar a little high in terms of expectations and GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) comparisons for the likes of Rublev, Pegula, Pliskova, and Sabalenka - but everyone wants to be the best, right?
The way I see it tonight. Pliskova and Sabalenka are both justified favourites to win their respective quarter-final matches, on current form, and on career-to-date experience. Pliskova takes on Magda Linette, who is making her first ever appearance in a Major quarter final, at age 30. This will be just a second career Grand Slam QF for Sabalenka’s 26-year-old opponent, Donna Vekic.
Big prices…
Mark my words, these two matches will get nervy and/ or scrappy at some stage. My take is to back the fancied names to get over the line, but only after a scare…
That leads me once again to the Set Betting option that requires the full quota of sets to be played - the 2-1 score-lines for both Pliskova and Sabalenka. Available at around 3/1 (4.0) each.
Sticking with the desirable Set Betting prices, I also believe the only way to get any kind of value out of Novak Djokovic tomorrow morning is to back the nine-time Australian Open champion to win in five sets against Andrey Rublev, at around 6/1 (7.0). Over the past couple of seasons, I’ve pointed out several times how Novak - now 35 years of age, and still playing amazing tennis - tends to get drawn into long battles with the young guns… only to eventually prevail.
After an almost too-easy 3-0 win over home hope Alex De Minaur in the last round, in which the Serbian superstar didn’t even face a single break point. I wouldn’t be surprised if Novak ended up giving the crowd something to really get into in this one, and play out a titanic, ball-thumping, energy-sapping, go-the-distance encounter with his dogged 25-year-old Russian opponent.
How I play…
That’s how I see it. I’m prepared to be wrong. You’ll find plenty of bettors queuing up to back the odds-on prices for Pliskova, Sabalenka and Djokovic to win these quarter-final matches. And many more lumping-on the straight-sets, 2-0 and 3-0 scores. But I’ve been watching this sport long enough to know that things don’t always go that smoothly at the serious end of a big tournament…
The big prices are for me. I’m splitting a stake four ways across a speculative Trixie on those three Set Betting scores: Pliskova 2-1, Sabalenka 2-1, Djokovic 3-2. A Trixie is three doubles and a treble. The full house is worth over 100/1.
Also in the notebook…
Tiebreaks tonight…
Other betting angles tonight include going for Tiebreaks in the clash between 20-year-old Ben Shelton and 25-year-old Tommy Paul…
That’s an all-American line-up, but those guys are two very different characters. Shelton brings the fire, passion, and youthful exuberance. Paul keeps his head down under his cap, and keeps things quiet. One thing they do have in common: both serve very well. I like Over 1.5 Tiebreaks at 7/2 (4.5). That pays out if there are two or more 7-6 sets in the match.
You don’t tend to get as many serve-dominated matches in the women’s game. But you do get long, roller-coaster ones - and they can also lead to 7-6 sets. The Tiebreak in the Match option has paid out in each of the last two meetings between Sabalenka and Vekic. Odds of 3/1 (4.0) appeal to me here.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Australian Open 2023 – Quarter Finals
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I’ll be back at 5pm Wednesday with your Day 11 email.
P.S
You can email me during the tournament at:
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson