Australian Open: Day 12 - and a big price for Wimbledon...

Thursday 26th January 2023

Good afternoon, and welcome to Day 12 of your Australian Open 2023 daily service. Friday morning’s men’s semi finals are scheduled for 3.30am and 8.30am, UK time…

Both women’s semi finals went to a 1st-set tiebreak. And once again, the importance of winning the opening set in a big match was there for all to see. After losing the 1st set by the narrowest of scores, 7-6, both Victoria Azarenka and Magda Linette were by far the second-best for the remainder of the match.

Elena Rybakina beat Azarenka, 7-6, 6-3

Aryna Sabalenka beat Linette, 7-6, 6-2

Sabalenka was 7/1 at the start of the tournament – right up there with the favourites in the Outright Winner betting. Rybakina was 22/1. Sabalenka had formed one half of our 30/1 women’s Name the Finalists pick, but Jessica Pegula stumbled in the quarter finals.

• I talked yesterday about the early bird getting the worm. It really is a key part of Ones to Watch. And to get on those future big winners we must – of course – keep looking forward… 

A big price for Wimbledon…

Following on from my note yesterday, I’ve got an early-bird selection for us for this year’s trip to Wimbledon. A name to speculatively get in the book at big prices today, in order to snap up the largest possible odds. With a couple of unfolding scenarios in mind…

Wimbledon Men’s 2023 – KAREN KHACHANOV @ 125/1 & 100/1

The first thing to say about Karen Khachanov is that if he overcomes underdog odds to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Australian Open semi final in the early hours of tomorrow morning. In doing so reaching a first Grand Slam final. Then there’s likely to be a bit of a rush on his prices for this year’s three other Majors.

The second point is, he’s Russian…

If rumours (‘reports’) are to be believed, there’s a growing case right now for Wimbledon to lift the ban on Russian and Belarusian players for this year. The 2022 ban was the subject of much debate in the tennis world and beyond.

Now, you and I don’t usually deal too much in media-based ifs, buts & maybes. (And politics and sport are often uncomfortable bedfellows.) But this news story has been kicking about since before Christmas, and is in the spotlight right now with a Belarus player getting to the final in Australia (Sabalenka). As well as Azarenka (Belarus) and Khachanov (Russia) reaching the semis. Along with Russian-born Kazakhstan representative Rybakina backing up last summer’s Wimbledon win by reaching another Grand Slam final here in Melbourne. The headlines and column inches keep on coming.

Areas that I’m much more at home talking about are form on the tennis court, and the bookmakers’ prices. And Karen Khachanov appeals in both categories…

The right profile…

Age 26, and turning 27 in May. An injury-free Khachanov can present a big threat on the hallowed turf of SW19 this summer. With a big serve and heavy groundstrokes, both of which can do damage on fast surfaces. Alongside an improved tennis IQ as his career has developed…

Karen will be 27 by the time Wimbledon comes along – the same age that Nick Kyrgios was when he finally fulfilled some of his long-talked-about potential by reaching the final at Wimbledon last year. I’m not saying Khachanov has the same level of born talent as Kyrgios, but there’s certainly something in the case for a player to kick-on at this age and at this stage of their career. You start to realise you might not have too many visits left at these big annual tournaments…

Khachanov hasn’t won a tournament since taking the biggest title of his career, the Paris Masters indoors, in 2018 (as a 40/1 shot). But the signs of improvement have been there recently:

• In 2022, Khachanov reached a first Grand Slam semi final, at the US Open

• So far in 2023, Karen has made the quarter finals at 2 out of 2 ATP tournaments – and he’s in the semi finals here at the Australian Open

That means the world no.20 has now made the semis in the last two Grand Slams.

Whatever happens tomorrow in Melbourne, I’d say Karen will have his sights on achieving more at the Majors this season…

Here’s a little run-down of some of those Wimbledon early-bird/ long-shot notes I was hinting at yesterday:

• Khachanov has now reached the quarter finals or better at all 4 Grand Slams…

• Currently a Top 20 player, but has been as high as no.8 – and is definitely good enough to be challenging regularly for the Top 10 if he can keep up the consistency (and fitness) shown since the end of last summer, when he reached a maiden Grand Slam semi final in New York…

• Big server = dangerous on grass…

• Got to Week 2 (eg. Last 16 or better) in 2 of his last 3 visits to the All England Club…

Khachanov at Wimbledon:

2022 – Did Not Play (Russian ban)
2021 – Quarter Final
2020 – Did Not Play (Wimbledon cancelled – pandemic)
2019 – 3rd Round
2018 – Last 16

I’d say that Karen can improve on his CV at SW19. Starting from this July…

The only problem with this ante-post is the big point mentioned already: he’s Russian…

Bet with the right bookies…

I’d say the doubt factor over Khachanov’s as yet undetermined eligibility to participate is certainly built into odds of 125/1 and 100/1. Available with mainstream bookies as I write.

In my opinion those prices are too big – that’s if we were only dealing in tennis ability, of course, and not talking about the ban.

Each Way terms of 1/2 odds make Khachanov 50/1 to reach the Wimbledon final this year - again, too big in my eyes, if he’s allowed to play.

• Indeed, William Hill are as short at 50/1 for Karen, Outright – making the Each Way portion worth just 25/1. I’d say the quotes of 100/1+ look value here. In fact, Ladbrokes & Coral have already gone from 150/1 to 100/1 today…

Let's take the risk - and take the big odds...

Just one question left to think about then. The bookies’ terms & conditions. Different firms have different rules for tournament Outright Winner bets. I’d always urge you to consult the published rules with your own bookmaker of choice, or even better, contact them directly.

These are the top prices for Khachanov for Wimbledon, as of this afternoon – with the bookies where our stakes would be void if he didn’t play:

125/1 Skybet
100/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes & Coral, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Basically, you don’t want to be placing this Wimbledon bet right now with a firm that’s going to settle the market as ‘All In Compete or Not’ (such as Betfred and BetVictor. And Betway, who are dangling that 100/1, but with those mean conditions).

You want a fair playing field, with the bet void if your player doesn’t make it...

For example, in Skybet’s Tennis Rules for Outright Tournament Winner bets:

• ‘If a player does not take part in an event bets on that selection will be void.’

And in Ladbrokes & Coral’s Online Rules for tennis Outright betting:

• ‘Should a participant take no part in the competition then bets on them will be void. Should they withdraw or be disqualified after the tournament begins, all bets will stand and will be settled as losers.’

At Bet365:

• ‘Bets on any player not taking part in the tournament will be void.’ 

At Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook:

• Where a player, pairing or team does not participate in a tournament (i.e. they are withdrawn prior to the start of their first match), all bets (including tournament winner, quarter or special bets) involving that player, pairing or team will be voided and stakes will be refunded accordingly.

At William Hill:

• If the selected player withdraws before the given tournament begins, bets placed on this player will be refunded 

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Ones to Watch picks:

Wimbledon 2023 – Men’s

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

• Karen Khachanov @ 125/1 Skybet, 100/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes & Coral, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

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I’ll be back on Friday with a preview of the Australian Open Women’s Final.

P.S
You can email me at:

tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch