Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024

Aus Open Day 10: An exception to the rule - at 8/1...

Monday 22nd January 2024

Australian Open - Day 10

I said we were putting our faith in youth…

Turns out, I should have been even more direct in getting behind our players yesterday…

I went for the 2-1 Set Betting options for 19-year-old Linda Noskova (won via retirement in 1st Set; Set Betting void), and 21-year-old Qinwen Zheng (won 2-0). While our third match pick from Sunday night, 23-year-old Dayana Yastremka, took out Victoria Azarenka in straight sets, 2-0.

When that all shakes down, it means we have two of our Day 1/ ante-post women’s Outright Winner picks, through to the quarter finals - at big prices…

And what’s more, our two women are in the wide-open top half of the draw - with a great opportunity to go all the way…

The star performer for us so far is Linda Noskova. We first backed the teenager as an early-bird pick for this tournament, back in September and October of last year (at top prices of 100/1 and 150/1). The 19-year-old went off at a top price of 300/1 Each Way on Day 1, with 100/1 and 150/1 widely available (Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places).

For Win Only backers/ traders on the Betfair Exchange, I’ve heard from a couple of members who are on Noskova at 400/1+.

Qinwen Zheng went in the book for us on the opening day of the tournament, at 33/1, 30/1, or 28/1 Each Way…

Noskova is now down to 9/1 in general for the title, with Zheng at 6/1.

  • The quarter finals in this section don’t take place until tomorrow night. We’ll look at our options and the match-ups, in Tuesday’s email

We also have one man standing in the Outright markets…

Top server Hubert Hurkacz is definitely still in underdog territory here - our 100/1 or 80/1 pick from last week is still 66/1 and 50/1 now, albeit with the bookies now only offering reduced Each Way terms of 1/3 odds for reaching the final.

But what I like about Hubi - apart from his massive serve - is that he’s been playing better with each match. Timing your run, and playing yourself into form ready for the quarter finals, is the right direction to be going in.

Match picks - Day 10…

Concentrating now on tonight’s matches, with the start of the quarter finals. I’m doing something I don’t often do - and that’s backing the favourites…

The form so far this tournament, along with the career head-to-heads, paints a pretty dominant picture in favour of the headline names on Day 10:

  • Novak Djokovic v Taylor Fritz - head-to-head: 8-0 - including a 3-0 win at the US Open last year

  • Jannik Sinner v Andrey Rublev - head-to-head: 4-2 - with Sinner winning the last 2 meetings in straight sets. Sinner is yet to drop a set here at the Australian Open 2024, with 4 x 3-0 victories

  • Coco Gauff v Marta Kostyuk - head-to-head: 1-0 - and Gauff is yet to drop a set so far, with 4 x 2-0 wins to reach the quarter finals

  • Aryna Sabalenka v Barbora Krejcikova - head-to-head: 5-1 - with Sabalenka winning their last 2 meetings in straight sets. The reigning Australian Open champion is yet to drop a set in her title defence, posting 4 x 2-0 wins

In the standard Match Winner markets, backing those four favourites to all win tonight will only pay odds-on as an acca, at around 4/5 (1.8)...

However…

We can get over 8/1 (9.0+) for that quartet to all win in straight sets. And that’s a bet that I’m prepared to make an exception for on this occasion, when it comes to siding with these high-performing players…

Set Betting:
Djokovic to win 3-0 v Fritz
Sinner to win 3-0 v Rublev
Gauff to win 2-0 v Kostyuk
Sabalenka to win 2-0 v Krejcikova

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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:

Quarter Finals

Tonight/ Tuesday morning - play starts 2am UK time

Set Betting:

  • 4-fold Acca: Djokovic 3-0, Sinner 3-0, Gauff 2-0, Sabalenka 2-0 @ 17/2 (9.5) Bet365, LiveScoreBet, Ladbrokes, Coral

Set Betting markets available with all major bookmakers.

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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.

Play starts at 2am.

I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 11 email…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch