Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024
Aus Open Day 15: Men's Final - Beauty and the Beast...
Saturday 27th January 2024
Australian Open - Day 15
Reigning women’s champion Aryna Sabalenka did what was expected of her this morning.
The 1/6 match favourite showcased her brutal, battering-ram game. Beating our 33/1 tournament outsider Qinwen Zheng, 6-3, 6-2.
We can console ourselves with an Each Way payout from our Day 1 Ones to Watch pick. And also take encouragement from the fact that we found the breakthrough, first-time Grand Slam finalist in the Australian Open 2024 women’s draw.
If you followed yesterday’s match advice, and backed Sabalenka to break Qinwen Zheng’s serve in the Chinese player’s first service game of the match. Then you won’t land a simpler (or faster) payout all season. That bet was in after five minutes.
We had to leave him behind…
There’s also a first-time Major finalist in the men’s event…
Jannik Sinner will be looking to make history for Italy tomorrow. The 22-year-old, world no.4 is through his debut Grand Slam final. And the bookies have him as the favourite to win it.
That’s where the ‘problem’ lies from a Ones to Watch point of view. More precisely: by my own personal betting preference…
In the Outright Winner markets, I don’t back favourites. I don’t advise the single-figure-odds, market leaders at Grand Slams. Call it stubborn. Bloody-mindedness. But it’s how I do things. And I’ve been in this game a long time….
That means, every now and then, we get a situation like this one. Where, here at the Australian Open 2024, Sinner went off as one of the contenders for the title in my eyes - no doubt about it. But he was third-favourite in the betting, at 13/2 (7.5) at best and 6/1 (7.0) in general…
In comparison, in recent seasons in Ones to Watch, we’ve backed young Jannik at much, much bigger prices…
For example:
In 2020, we backed the then-teenager at a massive 150/1 for the French Open - where he reached the quarter finals…
At the Miami Open Masters in 2021, we backed Sinner as a 33/1 shot. He got to the final, finished runner-up - and landed us an Each Way place payout…
Then, at the Indian Wells Masters in 2022, we were on the highly-rated Italian as a 40/1 outsider. He pulled out injured after the 3rd Round…
Since then, when faced with backing Sinner at much shorter tournaments prices for the biggest events - such as 6/1 here in Melbourne this fortnight. We’ve had to leave him behind…
The search for the Next Big Thing…
My point being… in Ones to Watch, we’re always looking to get on the ‘next big thing’ - at big prices, before they make it big (!)...
As an 18-year-old, Sinner was named in my 2020 Report, here
Whereas this morning’s 33/1 runner-up, Qinwen Zheng appeared in our latest, Ones to Watch in 2024 Report - published just before Christmas
While newly-crowned double Aussie Open champ, 5/1 Arya Sabalenka. And tomorrow’s 10/1 men’s finalist Daniil Medvedev. Were both first flagged up as Ones to Watch players in my 2019 report…
Here are my original entries for those two, from five years ago:
Back to the present day now. And Sunday’s men’s final…
Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev - Beauty and the Beast…
The bookies make Sinner the favourite at 4/11 (1.36). With Medvedev the underdog at 9/4 (3.25)...
This is world no.4 v world no.3 on the current rankings.
Those prices say a lot about the form and rising status of the 22-year-old Sinner. Seeing as 27-year-old Medvedev owns a 6-3 career head-to-head over the Italian. And the Russian is both a former world no.1 and Grand Slam winner.
This will be Medvedev’s third Aussie Open final in four years. And his sixth Major final, overall.
As mentioned above, this will be Sinner’s maiden Grand Slam final…
If nerves play a part, then they are more likely to be on Jannik’s side of the court. That said, the men’s best-of-five-set Grand Slam format gives more time for a player to shake off any wobbles, and play their way into the match.
Although if it does go deep to four or five long sets… then, as we saw in the semi finals, ‘marathon man’ Medvedev is dangerous to bet against. Daniil has come from two sets to nil down to win 3-2 on two occasions this tournament - both finishing past midnight. He’ll rally and scrap all day, and all night, if he has to.
Sinner’s game-plan will be to blitz the scoreboard as hard and fast as he can. He has the game and gifts to do it. But Medvedev is a wily, gritty competitor. And also has the world-class ability to raise his level for big points, when it really counts.
In the semi finals, the Russian played out the longest rally of the tournament. As I say: Medvedev won’t give in.
If Sinner’s too good on the day, then that’s okay with me. But I’m going for the underdog to win 3-2 in the Set Betting market, with odds of 7/1+ on the table…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
Men’s Final
Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev
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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.
Play starts from 8.30am.
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone