Tennis Betting Advice - January 2026
We've got a 250/1 shot in the semi finals tonight...
Thursday 15th January 2026
This is what it’s all about…
Here at Ones to Watch, in the tournament Outright Winner markets, we specialise in backing appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.
It’s not easy to find them. And it’s even harder to get them over the line…
But when we land a big one, it’s a great, great feeling - and all the waiting, and all the effort, pays off…
We’re in an exciting position at WTA Adelaide this week…
Our two picks, 14/1 Diana Shnaider and 250/1 Kimberly Birrell, are both through to the semi finals.
They’re on different sides of the draw, so can’t face each other until the final. That’s the good news…
The tricky bit is getting past the semi-final hurdle, and securing an Each Way payout (at the very least) by making the final itself.
Our ladies are up against two favourites tonight. We are, after all, perennial underdog backers.
Shnaider takes on world no.8 Mirra Andreeva. These two young Russians have played Doubles together, so know each other well. Andreeva won their only previous Singles meeting against each other on the tour (Brisbane 2024)
Birrell is the potential headline-maker for us here. As a home player, the Australian world no.107 was given a wild card into this tournament. Kimberly has been able to take full advantage so far, winning two matches, playing one of the best of her career yesterday in the quarter finals
A tantalising 250/1 situation…
As anticipated in Monday’s preview, we’ve seen a few player withdrawals this week, with the Australian Open coming up this weekend…
That’s gone to plan for us here in Adelaide, with Birrell benefitting from former Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova pulling out ahead of their last-16 encounter, handing a walkover to Birrell. Seeing as we saw something like that coming, I’m not even going to say that’s good luck.
The upshot is, having gone in the book at a solid 250/1 with Bet365 (and a couple of others) on Monday… BetVictor going up 200/1 for Birrell later that day… and William Hill nudging their original 100/1 out to 125/1 that evening…
Our Ones to Watch rank outsider is now into the semi finals, and trading at 16/1 and 14/1.
Make no bones about it, this is a great position to be in. 250/1 for a 16/1 shot. It’s good. Very good. But there is no money in the bank yet…
Birrell is just one match away from landing us a very large Each Way payout, with the chance of more in a potential final. But that ‘one match’ is the ‘money match’ - with the semi final being the one you need to win to get a place payout…
Kimberly takes on a familiar young Ones to Watch name tonight (12.30am UK time, Sky Sports Tennis). With teenager Victoria Mboko priced as a clear odds-on favourite to beat our player, at 2/7 (1.29).
Mboko features as a star prospect in our new, Ones to Watch in 2026 Report, which I sent out before Christmas (view it here). The 19-year-old Canadian was also a 28/1 winner for us in Montreal last August.
The optimist - and the realist…
In the semi-final match-ups tonight, both our players, Shnaider and Birrell, are the outsiders in the matchday betting - and are faced with a 0-1 head-to-head record against their respective opponents.
I’m realistic about our underdog status here. But I’m also an optimist (a useful & necessary mindset for someone who quests for 100/1 winners)...
Andreeva and Shnaider know each other well, and sometimes a match between friends (and players from the same country) can play out a bit flat. That might help Diana to unsettle the script here.
Mboko is making a habit out of three-set wins. She saved match points on the way to the WTA 1000 Montreal title last summer. And has saved a match point already at the Adelaide 500 event this week.
What I will say is, Victoria has played five matches so far in Australia this month, and they’ve all gone to the full three sets (won four). If some of that energy expenditure takes its toll on the teenage favourite, Birrell may be able to harness home-crowd support - as indeed, Mbko did in Montreal as a wild card last year - and pull out some magic.
For 27-year-old Birrell, this is her first WTA 500-level semi final, and as such, arguably the biggest moment of her career to date. Kimberly played great attacking tennis yesterday, and perhaps she can hold off the unforced errors better than Madison Keys, who racked up a messy and costly 50 of them against Mboko in the last round.
As I say, I’m an optimist.
I’m also a realist when it comes to the numbers. On a day like today, perhaps a less scrupulous ‘tipster’ would casually suggest you put a large wad of cash on Mboko to beat Birrell at 2/7…
It would certainly allow me to fill in a nice spreadsheet showing a ‘guaranteed profit’ achieved from the event, on paper…
But, let’s say I advised a hefty 50-point saver/ hedge bet on Mboko today… and assumed that you and every other member were on Birrell at the full 250/1…
With a £10 stake as an example, I would be asking you to shell out £500 on a match bet (Mboko to beat Birrell) that we’re actually wanting to lose tonight. And if Mboko did frank favouritism and beat our player, that additional 50-point stake at 2/7 would in any case only generate 14 points profit on its own.
Things get even trickier if you consider different bookies’ rules for Match Winner payouts in the event of in-match retirements, too. In a worse-case scenario, a giant 50 pts could go down the drain or be in vain, if one player ends up getting ill or injured in-play tonight.
Back to basics for me, then. I’m sticking with Birrell.
If the odds were the other way round and we had an underdog in Mboko tonight, it would be easier (and smarter) to lock-in a payout, whatever happens.
It’s up to you how you do or don’t bet, of course. If you are keen to recoup original stakes on this week’s picks… or make sure of a profit (of any size) from the Birrell position. Then make the move that suits you.
Final word from me today: Ones to Watch is all about backing tennis players at big Each Way prices. And we’ve got a big one on our hands here in Adelaide. We play the long-term game - and it’s an exciting one.
I’ll see you tomorrow for our first Australian Open email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone