Tennis Betting Advice - January 2026
Australian Open: Synchronicity Down Under at 40/1...
Wednesday 21st January 2026
We’re only halfway through the 2nd round of the Australian Open, but the Ones to Watch rollercoaster – and my stomach – has already been doing the loop-the-loop…
The opening weekend in Melbourne saw us denied a winning match treble by a player failing to win from match-point up (Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova). And our 100/1 pre-tournament selection Marta Kostyuk went out in the same way…
On the other hand, our other 100/1 women’s early-bird selection, Diana Shnaider, saved not one, not two, but three match points last night – and moves on to the 3rd round…
I don’t know if you’re as keen, daft, or committed as me to watching the tennis… but I was awake in the small hours following that Shnaider match. Nerve-jangling, but ultimately satisfying – although not good in terms of sleep deprivation for yours truly…
We’ll be looking at more youngsters and potential 100/1 upset-makers in tomorrow’s ‘Notes from the Tour’ email.
But today, we’re adding a name to our women’s Australian Open Outright Winner book at odds in the region of 40/1 - 33/1. With this price-bracket stat very much in mind, so I’ll repeat it for the third time already this month:
We’ve found one of those here in Australia, two years running – with 100/1 Madison Keys the big winner last season, and 33/1 Qinwen Zheng an Each Way runner-up and debut Major finalist for us in 2024.
Jess well-placed for a good run…
Back in 2021, we were on JESSICA PEGULA as a Ones to Watch outsider at 100/1 for this event. The American made the quarter finals that year – and went on to repeat the trick, reaching the last eight again in 2022, and 2023.
As we’ve discussed at length in these pages over the last couple of years, it looked for a long time that the likeable, understated Pegula was going to be cursed by some kind of Grand Slam quarter-final glass ceiling. However, Jess pushed her way through eventually, and made a first Major final at the US Open in 2024.
Because she’s never won one yet, Pegula is often overlooked in the ‘Slam star-names conversation. The mainstream media seems more interested in how wealthy her family are, than what she is achieving herself on the tennis court…
Let’s remind ourselves then, that Jessica Pegula is the world’s no.6 female player, and has been as high as no.3…
She holds a 3-3 career head-to-head against former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, who is in this bottom half of the draw – with Rybakina priced at just 6/1 in general for the trophy…
Jess has a more than respectable 5-6 head-to-head against the favourite in this side of the draw, Iga Swiatek. Pegula has won their last two meetings, and three of their last four. World no.2 Swiatek is yet to win the Australian Open (it’s the only Major that she’s missing), and is around 7/1 to do it this time.
Pegula also holds a clear 3-0 record against world no.4, 7/1 shot, and last year’s two-time Major runner-up, Amanda Anisimova. That head-to-head extends to 4-1 in favour of the 31-year-old American if you include her two most recent matches against 24-year-old compatriot Anisimova, at exhibition events in 2025.
If Jess beats another USA player tonight, world no.37 McCartney Kessler (head-to-head: 1-0 to Pegula, 2025). Then the three-time Aussie Open quarter-finalist has the chance to go deep again here…
And finally…
If you’re into connections, as I am (see this week’s article and advice on Mirra Andreeva, here). Then a bit of synchronicity might be at work if Pegula does something special Down Under this fortnight…
I’m drawing similarities here with Li Na. The now-retired Chinese tennis mega-star was age 31 when she won the Australian Open for the first (and only) time in 2014 – and turned 32 the next month. Jess is 31 now, and will celebrate her 32nd birthday in February…
Prior to that Melbourne Major triumph, Li Na had reached the semi finals at the most recently held Grand Slam, the US Open. Pegula did the same, making the final four in New York at the end of last summer…
When Li Na lifted the trophy in Australia, she was an established yet understated Top 10 player (no.4); Pegula is no.6 and fits the bill, too.
History-book comparisons aside, I like Pegula’s position in the opposite side of the draw to two-time former Aussie Open winner and the current 13/8 (2.63) favourite for the 2026 title, Aryna Sabalenka. As well as her price at 40/1 – 33/1 with several firms, ahead of tonight’s 2nd-round match.
Play starts just after midnight, UK time…
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
See above for full details
Women’s Outright Winner:
Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Already in the book/ open:
Women’s
Diana Shnaider
Linda Noskova
Mirra Andreeva
Men’s
Hubert Hurkacz
Alexander Bublik
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
P.S
Don’t forget to Follow our WhatsApp channel to get additional match picks sent to your smartphone during the Australian Open. More details on those here >>
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone